【摘要】：作為連接證券市場(chǎng)資金供求雙方的橋梁和紐帶,證券公司在促進(jìn)證券流通、資金流動(dòng)、市場(chǎng)價(jià)格機(jī)制形成、投資者合法權(quán)益保護(hù)等方面起著重要作用。對(duì)其綜合實(shí)力做出合理、公正、客觀的評(píng)價(jià)非常有必要。在利用傳統(tǒng)多屬性決策分析理論對(duì)證券公司的財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表進(jìn)行分析評(píng)價(jià)時(shí),各個(gè)指標(biāo)通常被假定為是相互獨(dú)立的,然而實(shí)際決策問(wèn)題中評(píng)價(jià)對(duì)象的屬性之間必然存在著關(guān)聯(lián)性,這種關(guān)聯(lián)性在公司的財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)中表現(xiàn)得尤為明顯。因此在傳統(tǒng)評(píng)價(jià)方法中,每個(gè)屬性的效用都會(huì)通過(guò)這種關(guān)聯(lián)性在其它屬性中被重復(fù)計(jì)算,造成評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果“超估計(jì)”。本文的最終目標(biāo)是對(duì)全國(guó)上市證券公司的綜合實(shí)力做出評(píng)價(jià),基于此目的,本文首先分析、總結(jié)了國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者對(duì)此評(píng)價(jià)所采取的方法與理論,指出傳統(tǒng)的評(píng)價(jià)理論缺少對(duì)屬性關(guān)聯(lián)性的研究;其次通過(guò)對(duì)比多個(gè)上市公司評(píng)價(jià)方法,本文擬采用證據(jù)推理對(duì)能代表證券公司綜合實(shí)力的9個(gè)財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行證據(jù)融合;然后通過(guò)改變決策矩陣中的屬性權(quán)重向量來(lái)解決屬性之間的關(guān)聯(lián)性,與傳統(tǒng)真正意義上的剔除關(guān)聯(lián)性方法相比,該方法的復(fù)雜程度低于后者,而且客觀性強(qiáng);最后在剔除屬性關(guān)聯(lián)性的基礎(chǔ)上,借助證據(jù)推理對(duì)全國(guó)20家上市證券公司進(jìn)行算例分析,驗(yàn)證上述方法和理論在解決實(shí)際問(wèn)題中所顯現(xiàn)出的優(yōu)良特性。
[Abstract]:As a bridge and link between the supply and demand of funds in the securities market, securities companies play an important role in promoting the circulation of securities, the flow of funds, the formation of market price mechanism, the protection of investors' legitimate rights and interests, and so on. It is necessary to make a reasonable, fair and objective evaluation of its comprehensive strength. When using the traditional multi-attribute decision analysis theory to analyze and evaluate the financial statements of securities companies, each index is usually assumed to be independent of each other. However, there must be a correlation between the attributes of the evaluation objects in the actual decision-making problem. This correlation is particularly evident in the company's financial indicators. Therefore, in the traditional evaluation method, the utility of each attribute will be repeated in other attributes through this correlation, resulting in the evaluation result "overestimated". The ultimate goal of this paper is to evaluate the comprehensive strength of listed securities companies in China. Based on this purpose, this paper first analyzes and summarizes the methods and theories adopted by scholars at home and abroad for this evaluation. It is pointed out that the traditional evaluation theory lacks the research on the relevance of attributes. Secondly, by comparing the evaluation methods of many listed companies, this paper intends to use evidence reasoning to merge the nine financial indicators that can represent the comprehensive strength of securities companies. Then the correlation between attributes is solved by changing the attribute weight vector in the decision matrix. Compared with the traditional method of eliminating correlation in the real sense, the complexity of this method is lower than that of the latter, and the objectivity is strong. Finally, on the basis of eliminating attribute relevance, 20 listed securities companies in China are analyzed by evidence reasoning to verify the excellent characteristics of the above methods and theories in solving practical problems.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：合肥工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F832.39

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