【摘要】：當(dāng)今世界的開(kāi)放程度日趨加大,各國(guó)之間的經(jīng)貿(mào)外來(lái)日趨頻繁,對(duì)外貿(mào)易在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的地位與日俱增。匯率作為對(duì)外貿(mào)易交往的價(jià)格標(biāo)尺,其變動(dòng)對(duì)一個(gè)國(guó)家或地區(qū)的外貿(mào)影響是巨大的。改革開(kāi)放以來(lái),河南省對(duì)外貿(mào)易取得了長(zhǎng)足的發(fā)展。當(dāng)前國(guó)家正在大力推進(jìn)“一帶一路”建設(shè),地處中原腹地的河南有著得天獨(dú)厚的戰(zhàn)略地位,同時(shí)河南自貿(mào)區(qū)的建設(shè)也已經(jīng)正式獲得國(guó)務(wù)院批復(fù),將在2017年正式掛牌成立。在這個(gè)大背景下,河南省對(duì)外貿(mào)易正面臨著前所未有的發(fā)展機(jī)遇,未來(lái)也必將取得跳躍式發(fā)展。匯率改革以后,中國(guó)實(shí)行了浮動(dòng)匯率管理制度,人民幣匯率面臨著巨大的升值壓力,其波動(dòng)性也與日俱增。根據(jù)國(guó)際清算銀行的測(cè)算,從2005年到2015年的十年間,人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率已上漲近50%。隨著中國(guó)逐步開(kāi)放資本賬戶以及人民幣正式作為第五種貨幣加入SDR貨幣籃子,人民幣匯率對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)尤其是對(duì)外貿(mào)易的影響程度將更加顯著。因此,深入研究人民幣匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)河南省對(duì)外貿(mào)易的影響具有很強(qiáng)的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。文采用理論加實(shí)證的分析手段,首先對(duì)匯率對(duì)貿(mào)易影響的理論進(jìn)行闡述,然后構(gòu)建了人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率與河南省進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易、人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率與河南省進(jìn)出口加工貿(mào)易之間的計(jì)量模型,進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。在此基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合人民幣匯在未來(lái)的波動(dòng)預(yù)期,為河南省的外貿(mào)如何在新時(shí)期取得更好發(fā)展提供政策建議。
[Abstract]:The opening degree of the world is increasing day by day, the foreign trade between countries is becoming more and more frequent, and the position of foreign trade in the national economy is increasing day by day. As the price gauge of foreign trade, the change of exchange rate has great influence on the foreign trade of a country or region. Since the reform and opening to the outside world, Henan Province has made great progress in foreign trade. At present, the country is vigorously promoting the "Belt and Road" construction, located in the hinterland of the Central Plains, Henan Province has a unique strategic position, at the same time, the construction of Henan Free Trade area has been officially approved by the State Council, will be officially listed in 2017. Under this background, Henan's foreign trade is facing unprecedented opportunities for development, and it is bound to achieve leap-forward development in the future. After the exchange rate reform, China has implemented the floating exchange rate management system, the RMB exchange rate is facing huge appreciation pressure, its volatility is also increasing day by day. The real effective exchange rate of the renminbi has risen nearly 50 percent between 2005 and 2015, according to calculations by the Bank for International Settlements. With the gradual opening of China's capital account and the official entry of the RMB into the SDR basket as the fifth currency, the impact of RMB exchange rate on the economy, especially on foreign trade, will be more significant. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to deeply study the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on Henan's foreign trade. By means of theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper firstly expounds the influence of exchange rate on trade, and then constructs the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the import and export trade of Henan Province. The econometric model between the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the import and export processing trade of Henan Province is analyzed. On this basis, combined with the RMB exchange in the future volatility expectations, for the foreign trade in Henan Province to achieve better development in the new period to provide policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河南財(cái)經(jīng)政法大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.6;F752.8

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