【摘要】：影子銀行這一概念自提出以來越來越受到全世界的關(guān)注,尤其在2008年美國次貸危機(jī)爆發(fā)后,影子銀行已成為研究學(xué)者重點(diǎn)關(guān)注的主題。伴隨著我國影子銀行的飛速發(fā)展,政府在利用貨幣政策進(jìn)行宏觀調(diào)控時(shí)出現(xiàn)了困難。為此研究貨幣政策是否會(huì)引起影子銀行規(guī)模變化和影子銀行對貨幣政策到底有何影響,以及傳統(tǒng)信貸規(guī)模與影子銀行之間的關(guān)系顯得尤為重要,本文主要討論了貨幣政策對影子銀行規(guī)模與傳統(tǒng)信貸的影響,以及在此影響下,影子銀行規(guī)模和傳統(tǒng)信貸規(guī)模之間形成的類似于水床的此消彼長的狀態(tài),經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中我們把這一現(xiàn)象稱之為流動(dòng)性“水床效應(yīng)”。除了簡要介紹“水床效應(yīng)”、影子銀行的定義與構(gòu)成外,還分析了在貨幣政策的影響下,近年來影子銀行規(guī)模和傳統(tǒng)信貸規(guī)模的變化。本文選取了貨幣政策工具、傳統(tǒng)信貸規(guī)模、影子銀行規(guī)模三個(gè)指標(biāo),具體而言選擇了具有代表性的人民幣存款準(zhǔn)備金率、人民幣貸款以及信托貸款委托貸款之和3個(gè)變量,基于2007年1月至2016年12月的月度數(shù)據(jù),在VAR模型的基礎(chǔ)上,建立SVAR模型,通過脈沖響應(yīng)、方差分解等分析方法證明了貨幣政策在限制傳統(tǒng)信貸規(guī)模的同時(shí)促進(jìn)了影子銀行規(guī)模的擴(kuò)張,兩者之間呈現(xiàn)出此消彼長的趨勢,即“水床效應(yīng)”,并且這一效應(yīng)在貨幣政策緊縮時(shí)更加明顯�；谘芯拷Y(jié)論,本文還提出了管理部門要加大對影子銀行的監(jiān)管力度以及要合理地運(yùn)用貨幣政策調(diào)整社會(huì)融資規(guī)模與結(jié)構(gòu);提出要完善我國的貨幣監(jiān)測體系去實(shí)時(shí)研究影子銀行與貨幣政策之間的相互影響關(guān)系,使得政府在運(yùn)用宏觀調(diào)控時(shí)發(fā)揮的作用更加具有可預(yù)測性和有效性,降低其對貨幣政策削弱的力度等政策等一系列政策建議。
[Abstract]:The concept of shadow banking has attracted more and more attention from all over the world since it was put forward, especially in 2008, when the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in the United States, shadow banking has become the focus of research scholars. With the rapid development of shadow banking in China, it is difficult for the government to make use of monetary policy for macro-control. Therefore, it is particularly important to study whether monetary policy will lead to changes in the size of shadow banking and how shadow banking will affect monetary policy, and the relationship between traditional credit scale and shadow banking. This paper mainly discusses the influence of monetary policy on the size of shadow banking and traditional credit, and under this influence, the dynamic state of shadow banking scale and traditional credit scale is similar to that of water bed. In economics, we call this phenomenon liquidity "water bed effect". Besides the brief introduction of "Waterbed effect" and the definition and composition of shadow banking, this paper also analyzes the changes of shadow banking scale and traditional credit scale in recent years under the influence of monetary policy. This paper selects the monetary policy tool, the traditional credit scale, the shadow bank scale three indicators, specifically has chosen the representative RMB deposit reserve ratio, the RMB loan and the trust loan entrustment loan sum 3 variables, Based on the monthly data from January 2007 to December 2016, the SVAR model is established on the basis of the VAR model. Analysis methods such as variance decomposition prove that monetary policy not only limits the scale of traditional credit but also promotes the expansion of shadow banking scale, showing the trend of "water-bed effect" between the two. And this effect is even more pronounced when monetary policy is tightening. Based on the research conclusion, this paper also puts forward that the management department should strengthen the supervision of shadow banks and adjust the scale and structure of social financing by using monetary policy reasonably. It is proposed that the monetary monitoring system of our country should be perfected to study the interaction between shadow banking and monetary policy in real time, so that the role played by the government in the application of macro-control is more predictable and effective. Reduce its weakening of monetary policy and other policies such as a series of policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.3

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本文編號：2439856