基于國(guó)際視角的美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)縮表影響研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-11-28 10:15
【摘要】：金融危機(jī)過(guò)后,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)三輪QE為全球市場(chǎng)注入了巨額流動(dòng)性,QE的退出及美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息和縮表預(yù)期也必然會(huì)對(duì)市場(chǎng)造成重要影響。本文首先對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)縮表背景、原因、方式、規(guī)模進(jìn)行論述,隨后從短期、宏觀、微觀角度對(duì)其影響進(jìn)行深入分析,最后研究了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)縮表對(duì)中國(guó)的影響。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)預(yù)期縮表規(guī)模為2017-2022年達(dá)到GDP的16%,2022年以后目標(biāo)為GDP的6%。由于對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)和特朗普政府政策執(zhí)行力度的擔(dān)憂,縮表短期不會(huì)對(duì)市場(chǎng)造成太大影響,但長(zhǎng)期影響不容忽視�？s表會(huì)顯著影響國(guó)債長(zhǎng)端收益,同時(shí)市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)性會(huì)大幅減少,對(duì)股市也有較大影響,美元會(huì)因此更加堅(jiān)挺,由此造成新興市場(chǎng)資本流失。
[Abstract]:In the wake of the financial crisis, the Fed's three rounds of QE injected huge amounts of liquidity into global markets, and the exit of the QE and the Fed's expectations of higher interest rates and shrinking statements are bound to have a significant impact on markets. This paper first discusses the background, reasons, methods and scale of the Fed's contraction table, then analyzes its impact from the short-term, macro and micro perspectives, and finally studies the impact of the Fed's contraction table on China. The study found that the Fed expects the scale of the contraction to reach 16% of GDP in 2017-2022 and the target of 6% of GDP after 2022. Because of concerns about the domestic economic situation and the extent to which the Trump administration's policies are being implemented, the short-term impact of the contraction will not be too big for the market, but the long-term impact should not be overlooked. A contraction would have a significant impact on long-end Treasury yields, as well as a sharp drop in market liquidity and a greater impact on equities, making the dollar stronger, resulting in capital losses in emerging markets.
【作者單位】： 對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易學(xué)院;中國(guó)兵器裝備集團(tuán)公司;
【基金】：國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目“新形勢(shì)下防范金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究”(項(xiàng)目編號(hào):08BJY155);國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目“全面提高開(kāi)放型經(jīng)濟(jì)水平研究”(項(xiàng)目編號(hào):13AZD006)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F827.12
，
本文編號(hào)：2362550
[Abstract]:In the wake of the financial crisis, the Fed's three rounds of QE injected huge amounts of liquidity into global markets, and the exit of the QE and the Fed's expectations of higher interest rates and shrinking statements are bound to have a significant impact on markets. This paper first discusses the background, reasons, methods and scale of the Fed's contraction table, then analyzes its impact from the short-term, macro and micro perspectives, and finally studies the impact of the Fed's contraction table on China. The study found that the Fed expects the scale of the contraction to reach 16% of GDP in 2017-2022 and the target of 6% of GDP after 2022. Because of concerns about the domestic economic situation and the extent to which the Trump administration's policies are being implemented, the short-term impact of the contraction will not be too big for the market, but the long-term impact should not be overlooked. A contraction would have a significant impact on long-end Treasury yields, as well as a sharp drop in market liquidity and a greater impact on equities, making the dollar stronger, resulting in capital losses in emerging markets.
【作者單位】： 對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易學(xué)院;中國(guó)兵器裝備集團(tuán)公司;
【基金】：國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目“新形勢(shì)下防范金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究”(項(xiàng)目編號(hào):08BJY155);國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目“全面提高開(kāi)放型經(jīng)濟(jì)水平研究”(項(xiàng)目編號(hào):13AZD006)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F827.12
，
本文編號(hào)：2362550
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