我國央行新型貨幣政策有效性研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-11-05 19:02
【摘要】：2007年次貸危機(jī)爆發(fā)之后,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)等世界各國貨幣當(dāng)局推出各類創(chuàng)新型貨幣政策復(fù)蘇經(jīng)濟(jì),取得較明顯的效果。借鑒國際經(jīng)驗(yàn),在我國當(dāng)前產(chǎn)能過剩,多重結(jié)構(gòu)性失衡,傳統(tǒng)貨幣政策效果弱化的背景下,為實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)性調(diào)整,穩(wěn)定金融體系,我國央行先后創(chuàng)設(shè)了短期流動(dòng)性調(diào)節(jié)SLO和借貸便利類等一系列定向調(diào)節(jié)短期和中長期流動(dòng)性工具,經(jīng)過近幾年的頻繁操作和實(shí)踐,成效明顯。本文基于以上背景,將我國央行新型貨幣政策納入國際上對非常規(guī)貨幣政策解釋的范疇,主要采用了理論分析和實(shí)證分析相結(jié)合的方法對新型貨幣政策有效性問題進(jìn)行定性和定量研究。本文首先對國內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)及有效性相關(guān)基礎(chǔ)理論進(jìn)行了總結(jié)和分析,基于貨幣非中性理論展開對我國央行新型貨幣政策有效性的研究。其次,梳理概括央行在2013年以來使用新型貨幣政策工具特征及影響,結(jié)合我國實(shí)踐及相關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)理論,從工具、傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制、中介目標(biāo)、最終目標(biāo)等方面構(gòu)建我國新型貨幣政策理論體系框架。最后,基于結(jié)構(gòu)向量自回歸SVAR模型,將新型貨幣政策按照中介目標(biāo)不同分為以構(gòu)建利率走廊上限為中介目標(biāo)新型貨幣政策工具和以定向提供貨幣供應(yīng)量為中介目標(biāo)的定向降準(zhǔn),其中新型貨幣政策工具按照期限不同又分為短期和中長期,在本文所構(gòu)建的理論體系框架內(nèi)進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。結(jié)果表明,新型貨幣政策工具不僅在量上增加信貸,從價(jià)格上形成利率走廊上限,引導(dǎo)短期市場利率和中長期市場利率下降,并且中長期的引導(dǎo)效果更加顯著;貨幣政策新型使用定向降準(zhǔn)增加小微企業(yè)貸款效果明顯,但是在調(diào)控三農(nóng)信貸量變化方面還需其他政策搭配。本文認(rèn)為,要使得新型貨幣政策更加有效,需要進(jìn)一步完善央行貨幣政策體系框架,疏通傳導(dǎo)過程薄弱環(huán)節(jié),尤其是商業(yè)銀行對央行貨幣政策的反應(yīng)的靈敏性是至關(guān)重要的環(huán)節(jié),對此建議貨幣政策操作時(shí)不僅要搭配短期及中長期貨幣政策,也可以搭配其他相關(guān)政策,如差異化資本充足率等,并建議政府實(shí)施一定的財(cái)稅支持政策,才能更好實(shí)現(xiàn)政策意圖。
[Abstract]:After the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in 2007, the monetary authorities around the world, such as the Federal Reserve, launched various innovative monetary policies to revive the economy, and achieved more obvious results. Using international experience for reference, in order to realize the structural adjustment of the economy and stabilize the financial system, under the background of overcapacity, multiple structural imbalance and weakening of the effect of traditional monetary policy, China's central bank has created a series of short-term and medium- and long-term liquidity regulation tools, such as short-term liquidity regulation SLO and lending facilities. After frequent operation and practice in recent years, remarkable results have been achieved. Based on the above background, this paper brings the new monetary policy of our central bank into the international interpretation of unconventional monetary policy. This paper studies the validity of new monetary policy qualitatively and quantitatively by combining theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. Firstly, this paper summarizes and analyzes the relevant literature and the basic theory of effectiveness, and studies the effectiveness of new monetary policy of the central bank based on the non-neutral monetary theory. Secondly, combing and summarizing the characteristics and influence of the central bank's use of new monetary policy tools since 2013, combining with China's practice and relevant economic theory, from the tools, transmission mechanisms, intermediary targets, The final goal and other aspects of China's new monetary policy theoretical framework. Finally, based on the structural vector autoregressive SVAR model, the new monetary policy is divided into two categories according to the intermediate target: constructing the upper limit of interest rate corridor as the intermediate target, and providing the money supply as the intermediate target. The new monetary policy tools are divided into short term and long term according to different periods. The empirical test is carried out within the framework of the theoretical system constructed in this paper. The results show that the new monetary policy instrument not only increases credit in quantity, forms the upper limit of interest rate corridor from price, but also leads to the decline of short-term market interest rate and medium- and long-term market interest rate, and the mid- and long-term guiding effect is more remarkable. The new use of targeted reduction in monetary policy increases the effect of lending to small and micro enterprises, but other policies are needed to adjust and control the change of credit volume in agriculture, rural areas and farmers. This paper holds that in order to make the new monetary policy more effective, it is necessary to further improve the framework of the central bank's monetary policy system and clear the weak links in the transmission process. In particular, the sensitivity of commercial banks to the central bank's monetary policy is a crucial link. To this end, it is suggested that monetary policy should be operated not only with short-term and medium- and long-term monetary policies, but also with other relevant policies. If the capital adequacy ratio is differentiated, and the government should implement certain fiscal and tax support policies, the policy intention can be better realized.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0
[Abstract]:After the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in 2007, the monetary authorities around the world, such as the Federal Reserve, launched various innovative monetary policies to revive the economy, and achieved more obvious results. Using international experience for reference, in order to realize the structural adjustment of the economy and stabilize the financial system, under the background of overcapacity, multiple structural imbalance and weakening of the effect of traditional monetary policy, China's central bank has created a series of short-term and medium- and long-term liquidity regulation tools, such as short-term liquidity regulation SLO and lending facilities. After frequent operation and practice in recent years, remarkable results have been achieved. Based on the above background, this paper brings the new monetary policy of our central bank into the international interpretation of unconventional monetary policy. This paper studies the validity of new monetary policy qualitatively and quantitatively by combining theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. Firstly, this paper summarizes and analyzes the relevant literature and the basic theory of effectiveness, and studies the effectiveness of new monetary policy of the central bank based on the non-neutral monetary theory. Secondly, combing and summarizing the characteristics and influence of the central bank's use of new monetary policy tools since 2013, combining with China's practice and relevant economic theory, from the tools, transmission mechanisms, intermediary targets, The final goal and other aspects of China's new monetary policy theoretical framework. Finally, based on the structural vector autoregressive SVAR model, the new monetary policy is divided into two categories according to the intermediate target: constructing the upper limit of interest rate corridor as the intermediate target, and providing the money supply as the intermediate target. The new monetary policy tools are divided into short term and long term according to different periods. The empirical test is carried out within the framework of the theoretical system constructed in this paper. The results show that the new monetary policy instrument not only increases credit in quantity, forms the upper limit of interest rate corridor from price, but also leads to the decline of short-term market interest rate and medium- and long-term market interest rate, and the mid- and long-term guiding effect is more remarkable. The new use of targeted reduction in monetary policy increases the effect of lending to small and micro enterprises, but other policies are needed to adjust and control the change of credit volume in agriculture, rural areas and farmers. This paper holds that in order to make the new monetary policy more effective, it is necessary to further improve the framework of the central bank's monetary policy system and clear the weak links in the transmission process. In particular, the sensitivity of commercial banks to the central bank's monetary policy is a crucial link. To this end, it is suggested that monetary policy should be operated not only with short-term and medium- and long-term monetary policies, but also with other relevant policies. If the capital adequacy ratio is differentiated, and the government should implement certain fiscal and tax support policies, the policy intention can be better realized.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0
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