人民幣實際有效匯率影響中國就業(yè)的傳導機制研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-10-19 07:40
【摘要】：自1978年改革開放以來,我國的經(jīng)濟飛速發(fā)展,目前我國國內生產(chǎn)總值位于全球第二位。對外貿(mào)易總額不斷增長、外商投資不斷流入、就業(yè)狀況不斷改善是我國經(jīng)濟實力增強的表現(xiàn),同時也對人民幣匯率造成了一定的升值壓力。在經(jīng)濟全球化的進程中,我國的經(jīng)濟增長和就業(yè)發(fā)展易受匯率波動的影響。目前人民幣面臨持續(xù)升值的壓力,因此研究人民幣實際匯率變動對中國各行業(yè)就業(yè)的直接影響和間接影響具有重要現(xiàn)實意義。本文采取理論分析與實證分析相結合的方法,研究人民幣實際有效匯率對全國就業(yè)和三大產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)的直接影響和通過傳導機制對就業(yè)的間接影響。首先,文章詳細闡述匯率通過對外貿(mào)易傳導機制、資產(chǎn)負債比傳導機制、外商直接投資傳導機制、貨幣供給傳導機制對就業(yè)的理論影響;然后,運用ADF單位根檢驗法、多元線性回歸、自回歸分布滯后(Autoregressive Distributed Lag,ARDL)模型,實證檢驗人民幣實際有效匯率變動對就業(yè)的直接影響和通過傳導機制產(chǎn)生的間接影響;最后在實證結論的基礎上提出相關政策建議。本文最終得出國內生產(chǎn)總值的提高與第一產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)量的變動呈反向關系,與全國、第二產(chǎn)業(yè)和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)量的變動呈正向關系。人民幣實際有效匯率的升值對全國就業(yè)的作用是負向作用,在進口貿(mào)易傳導機制和外商直接投資傳導機制的影響下,其負向作用被減弱,在出口貿(mào)易傳導機制的影響下,負向作用得到擴大。在人民幣實際有效匯率不斷升值的影響下,第一產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)發(fā)展得到一定的促進作用。而第二產(chǎn)業(yè)、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)的發(fā)展受到一定程度的阻礙作用,尤其是對外貿(mào)易依賴程度大,實際利用外商直接投資少的企業(yè)。為此必須要采取相關措施避免人民幣實際有效匯率在短期內大幅度升值,減少企業(yè)的對外貿(mào)易依賴程度,積極引進優(yōu)良的外商直接投資。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up in 1978, the economy of our country has developed rapidly. At present, the GDP of our country is the second in the world. The increase of total foreign trade, the inflow of foreign investment and the improvement of employment are the manifestations of the strengthening of China's economic strength, and at the same time, it also causes a certain pressure of appreciation on the exchange rate of RMB. In the process of economic globalization, China's economic growth and employment development are vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations. At present, the RMB is facing the pressure of continuous appreciation, so it is of great practical significance to study the direct and indirect influence of the real exchange rate of RMB on the employment of various industries in China. By combining theoretical analysis with empirical analysis, this paper studies the direct influence of the real effective exchange rate of RMB on employment in China and the employment of three major industries, and the indirect influence on employment through transmission mechanism. First of all, the paper elaborates the theoretical influence of exchange rate on employment through foreign trade transmission mechanism, asset-liability ratio transmission mechanism, foreign direct investment transmission mechanism and money supply transmission mechanism, and then applies ADF unit root test method. Multiple linear regression, autoregressive distribution lag (Autoregressive Distributed Lag,ARDL) model, empirical test of the real effective exchange rate of RMB on the employment of direct impact and through the transmission mechanism of indirect impact; Finally, on the basis of empirical conclusions, the relevant policy recommendations are put forward. This paper finally draws the conclusion that the increase of GDP is inversely related to the change of the employment volume of the primary industry, and it is positively related to the change of the employment volume of the national, secondary and tertiary industries. The appreciation of the real effective exchange rate of RMB has a negative effect on national employment. Under the influence of import trade transmission mechanism and foreign direct investment transmission mechanism, its negative effect is weakened, and under the influence of export trade transmission mechanism, The negative effect is enlarged. Under the influence of RMB real effective exchange rate, the employment development of primary industry has been promoted to a certain extent. However, the development of employment in the secondary and tertiary industries is hindered to a certain extent, especially for enterprises that rely heavily on foreign trade and actually use less foreign direct investment. Therefore, we must take relevant measures to prevent the real effective exchange rate of RMB from appreciating greatly in the short term, reduce the degree of foreign trade dependence of enterprises, and actively introduce excellent foreign direct investment.
【學位授予單位】：東北師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.6;F249.2
本文編號：2280547
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up in 1978, the economy of our country has developed rapidly. At present, the GDP of our country is the second in the world. The increase of total foreign trade, the inflow of foreign investment and the improvement of employment are the manifestations of the strengthening of China's economic strength, and at the same time, it also causes a certain pressure of appreciation on the exchange rate of RMB. In the process of economic globalization, China's economic growth and employment development are vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations. At present, the RMB is facing the pressure of continuous appreciation, so it is of great practical significance to study the direct and indirect influence of the real exchange rate of RMB on the employment of various industries in China. By combining theoretical analysis with empirical analysis, this paper studies the direct influence of the real effective exchange rate of RMB on employment in China and the employment of three major industries, and the indirect influence on employment through transmission mechanism. First of all, the paper elaborates the theoretical influence of exchange rate on employment through foreign trade transmission mechanism, asset-liability ratio transmission mechanism, foreign direct investment transmission mechanism and money supply transmission mechanism, and then applies ADF unit root test method. Multiple linear regression, autoregressive distribution lag (Autoregressive Distributed Lag,ARDL) model, empirical test of the real effective exchange rate of RMB on the employment of direct impact and through the transmission mechanism of indirect impact; Finally, on the basis of empirical conclusions, the relevant policy recommendations are put forward. This paper finally draws the conclusion that the increase of GDP is inversely related to the change of the employment volume of the primary industry, and it is positively related to the change of the employment volume of the national, secondary and tertiary industries. The appreciation of the real effective exchange rate of RMB has a negative effect on national employment. Under the influence of import trade transmission mechanism and foreign direct investment transmission mechanism, its negative effect is weakened, and under the influence of export trade transmission mechanism, The negative effect is enlarged. Under the influence of RMB real effective exchange rate, the employment development of primary industry has been promoted to a certain extent. However, the development of employment in the secondary and tertiary industries is hindered to a certain extent, especially for enterprises that rely heavily on foreign trade and actually use less foreign direct investment. Therefore, we must take relevant measures to prevent the real effective exchange rate of RMB from appreciating greatly in the short term, reduce the degree of foreign trade dependence of enterprises, and actively introduce excellent foreign direct investment.
【學位授予單位】：東北師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.6;F249.2
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