IPO盈余管理對于定價泡沫及后續(xù)經(jīng)營業(yè)績的影響研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-31 13:57
【摘要】：我國股票市場的效率較低。上市首日收盤價大幅高出其發(fā)行定價(IPO抑價),發(fā)行人并不存在低價發(fā)行動機。投資者異質(zhì)信念、IPO制度約束(如賣空約束和準入制度等)、發(fā)行人的盈余管理和媒體管理、中介機構(gòu)未能勤勉盡責、以及宏觀經(jīng)濟因素等,都可能導致IPO新股定價向上偏離其內(nèi)在價值(Intrinsic Value),從而產(chǎn)生定價泡沫。本文主要關(guān)注其中的IPO前盈余管理因素。我們從盈余信息的有用性出發(fā),分析了IPO盈余管理的動因和機會。為了滿足上市條件、抬高發(fā)行定價,發(fā)行人很可能實施應(yīng)計或者真實盈余管理。然而,這種機會主義行為只能美化短期業(yè)績(催生定價泡沫),但并不利于企業(yè)的長期發(fā)展(導致業(yè)績下滑)。由此,我們主要關(guān)注發(fā)行前盈余管理對于定價泡沫、及其對于后續(xù)經(jīng)營業(yè)績的影響。本文的研究樣本為2007年初到2014年底間在A股IPO的1191家非金融企業(yè)。分別運用修正Jones模型和真實盈余管理模型,測度了應(yīng)計盈余管理(DA)與真實盈余管理(RM)。采用IPO定價與其內(nèi)在價值(以RIV模型測算)的偏離率指標衡量了定價泡沫。對于業(yè)績變化,則運用了財務(wù)指標如ROA、ROE、OPA。經(jīng)過實證檢驗,得出以下結(jié)論:(1)發(fā)行定價(OP)顯著高于其內(nèi)在價值(IV),存在定價泡沫,且該現(xiàn)象在創(chuàng)業(yè)板上更為顯著;(2)IPO前正向的盈余管理行為在A股市場中普遍存在;(3)IPO后,經(jīng)營業(yè)績下滑明顯,且創(chuàng)業(yè)板公司更加嚴重;(4)IPO盈余管理助推了定價泡沫的產(chǎn)生,應(yīng)計盈余管理和真實盈余管理均與定價泡沫顯著正相關(guān);(5)IPO前的盈余管理同后續(xù)業(yè)績下滑顯著負相關(guān)。本文的創(chuàng)新點主要有:(1)采用股票內(nèi)在價值衡量IPO定價的合理性,而非IPO抑價研究中的上市首日收盤價;(2)研究盈余管理與定價泡沫的關(guān)系,而非盈余管理與定價的關(guān)系;(3)采用基于IPO后真實數(shù)據(jù)的剩余收益模型(RIV)測算內(nèi)在價值;(4)結(jié)合使用應(yīng)計與真實盈余管理模型,測度IPO前的盈余管理程度。
[Abstract]:China's stock market is inefficient. The closing price on the first day of listing is much higher than its IPO underpricing, and the issuer has no motive to issue at a low price. This paper focuses on the pre-IPO earnings management factors. We analyze the motivation and opportunity of earnings management in IPO from the usefulness of earnings information. In order to meet the listing conditions and raise the issue price, the issuer is very concerned. However, this kind of opportunistic behavior can only beautify the short-term performance (causing pricing bubbles), but it is not conducive to the long-term development of enterprises (leading to performance decline). Therefore, we mainly focus on the pre-issuance earnings management for pricing bubbles, and its impact on subsequent operating performance. This paper is a study of 1911 non-financial firms in A-share IPOs from the beginning of 2007 to the end of 2014. Using the modified Jones model and the real earnings management model, we measure the accrued earnings management (DA) and the real earnings management (RM). We measure the pricing bubble by the deviation rate between IPO pricing and its intrinsic value (measured by RIV model). Using financial indicators such as ROA, ROE, OPA. Through empirical test, the following conclusions are drawn: (1) IPO pricing (OP) is significantly higher than its intrinsic value (IV), there is a pricing bubble, and the phenomenon is more significant in the GEM; (2) positive earnings management before IPO is widespread in the A-share market; (3) after IPO, operating performance declines significantly, and GEM public sector. The company is more serious; (4) IPO earnings management promotes the emergence of pricing bubbles, accrued earnings management and real earnings management are significantly positively correlated with pricing bubbles; (5) earnings management before IPO is significantly negatively correlated with subsequent performance decline. The first day closing price in the study; (2) the relationship between earnings management and pricing bubbles, not between earnings management and pricing; (3) the residual income model (RIV) based on real data after IPO is used to measure the intrinsic value; (4) the earnings management degree before IPO is measured by using the accrual and real earnings management model.
【學位授予單位】：電子科技大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.51
本文編號：2215201
[Abstract]:China's stock market is inefficient. The closing price on the first day of listing is much higher than its IPO underpricing, and the issuer has no motive to issue at a low price. This paper focuses on the pre-IPO earnings management factors. We analyze the motivation and opportunity of earnings management in IPO from the usefulness of earnings information. In order to meet the listing conditions and raise the issue price, the issuer is very concerned. However, this kind of opportunistic behavior can only beautify the short-term performance (causing pricing bubbles), but it is not conducive to the long-term development of enterprises (leading to performance decline). Therefore, we mainly focus on the pre-issuance earnings management for pricing bubbles, and its impact on subsequent operating performance. This paper is a study of 1911 non-financial firms in A-share IPOs from the beginning of 2007 to the end of 2014. Using the modified Jones model and the real earnings management model, we measure the accrued earnings management (DA) and the real earnings management (RM). We measure the pricing bubble by the deviation rate between IPO pricing and its intrinsic value (measured by RIV model). Using financial indicators such as ROA, ROE, OPA. Through empirical test, the following conclusions are drawn: (1) IPO pricing (OP) is significantly higher than its intrinsic value (IV), there is a pricing bubble, and the phenomenon is more significant in the GEM; (2) positive earnings management before IPO is widespread in the A-share market; (3) after IPO, operating performance declines significantly, and GEM public sector. The company is more serious; (4) IPO earnings management promotes the emergence of pricing bubbles, accrued earnings management and real earnings management are significantly positively correlated with pricing bubbles; (5) earnings management before IPO is significantly negatively correlated with subsequent performance decline. The first day closing price in the study; (2) the relationship between earnings management and pricing bubbles, not between earnings management and pricing; (3) the residual income model (RIV) based on real data after IPO is used to measure the intrinsic value; (4) the earnings management degree before IPO is measured by using the accrual and real earnings management model.
【學位授予單位】：電子科技大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.51
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，本文編號：2215201
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