上市公司定增破發(fā)后股價走勢對投資的借鑒
發(fā)布時間：2018-07-28 20:15
【摘要】：自2006年中國證監(jiān)會頒布并實施《上市公司證券發(fā)行管理辦法》以來,因為定向增發(fā)具有審批流程較短、獲得的融資長久穩(wěn)定、門檻較低且對于投資者來說具有一定折價等優(yōu)勢,備受上市公司及投資者青睞。2014年至2016年是定增發(fā)展最迅猛的三年,2013年全年實際募集次數僅有281次,實際募集規(guī)模3440. 18億元,2016年全年實際募集次數794次,實際募集規(guī)模達到18008. 99億元,較2013年增長了 423. 5%,創(chuàng)造了歷史新高。然而,有時候會因為市場環(huán)境、公司基本面變化等多方面的原因,在定增實施后出現二級市場股價跌破定增發(fā)行價的“定向增發(fā)破發(fā)現象”。隨著定增次數的增多和定增規(guī)模的不斷增大,破發(fā)現象也變得頻繁起來。國內外學者大部分研究切入點主要為定增公告的公告效應,大股東支持和侵占理論以及上市公司定增長短期效應等方面,而本文的研究切入點是定向增發(fā)解禁前出現的破發(fā)現象,是較為新穎的。本文對2014年至2016年我國A股市場定向增發(fā)實施后至解禁日破發(fā)的標的公司股價走勢進行統(tǒng)計及篩選,并將樣本數據分為2014年1月1日至2015年5月31日的牛市階段、2015年6月1日至2016年2月28日的熊市階段和2014年1月1日至2016年2月28日的全樣本階段,選取了最大破發(fā)比例、大股東認購比例、定增規(guī)模與總市值大小比例、流通市值、毛利率、凈資產收益率、企業(yè)性質、上證綜指同期漲跌幅八個自變量,運用SPSS軟件進行多元線性回歸,分析破發(fā)后至解禁日最大漲幅的相關影響因素。研究表明:牛市階段下,最大破發(fā)比例、毛利率、企業(yè)性質、上證綜指同期漲跌幅以及常量五個變量是顯著的。熊市階段下,最大破發(fā)比例、定增規(guī)模與市值比例、流通市值、上證綜指同期漲跌幅以及常量五個變量是顯著的。全樣本區(qū)間下,最大破發(fā)比例、流通市值、毛利率、企業(yè)性質、上證綜指同期漲跌幅以及常量六個變量是顯著的。用全樣本數據作出的多元線性回歸方程擬合效果最好,顯著變量也較多。原因可能是全樣本數據量較大,進行多元回歸時能夠較好地消除市場環(huán)境以及其他因素對回歸結果的影響。最后根據結論,本文提出了基于定向增發(fā)破發(fā)現象的投資策略建議,具有較強的實踐意義。
[Abstract]:Since the China Securities Regulatory Commission promulgated and implemented the "measures for the Administration of Securities issuance of listed companies" in 2006, because of the relatively short approval process, the long-term stability of the financing obtained, the low threshold and the advantages of a certain discount for investors, etc. Listed companies and investors favour them. 2014 to 2016 was the fastest growing year for growth, with only 281 actual offerings in 2013, with 3440,400 in total. 1.8 billion yuan, in 2016, the actual number of annual fund-raising 794, the actual size of the collection reached 1, 008. 9.9 billion yuan, an increase of 423.3 percent over 2013. Five, set a record high. However, sometimes due to the market environment, the company's fundamental changes and other reasons, after the implementation of the fixed increase, the secondary market share price fell below the fixed issue price of the "directional issuance break phenomenon." With the constant increase in the number of times and the constant increase in the size of the phenomenon has become frequent. Most scholars at home and abroad mainly focus on the announcement effect of fixed increase announcement, the theory of large shareholder support and encroachment, and the short-term effect of fixed growth of listed companies, etc. The breakthrough point of this paper is the breaking phenomenon before the release of the ban, which is relatively novel. In this paper, the stock price trends of the target companies in China's A share market from 2014 to 2016 after the implementation of directional additional offerings to the day of lifting the ban are statistically analyzed and screened. The sample data are divided into the bull period from 1 January 2014 to 31 May 2015, the bear market stage from 1 June 2015 to 28 February 2016 and the full sample period from 1 January 2014 to 28 February 2016. The proportion of major shareholders subscription, the proportion of fixed increase scale to total market value size, circulating market value, gross profit rate, net asset return rate, enterprise nature, Shanghai Composite Index rise and fall in the same period eight independent variables, using SPSS software to carry out multivariate linear regression, Analysis of the largest increase after breaking to the lifting of the ban on the relevant factors. The results show that the maximum break ratio, gross profit margin, enterprise nature, the rise and fall of Shanghai Composite Index in the same period and the five variables of constant are significant. In the bear market stage, the maximum break ratio, the proportion of constant increase and market value, the circulating market value, the rise and fall of Shanghai Composite Index and the constant five variables are significant. In the whole sample interval, the maximum break ratio, circulation market value, gross profit margin, enterprise nature, the rise and fall of Shanghai Composite Index in the same period and six variables of constant are significant. The multivariate linear regression equation based on the whole sample data is the best one, and there are many significant variables. The reason may be that the total sample data is large and the influence of market environment and other factors on the regression results can be well eliminated when multivariate regression is carried out. Finally, according to the conclusion, this paper puts forward the investment strategy suggestions based on the phenomenon of directional placement break, which has strong practical significance.
【學位授予單位】：蘭州大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.51
本文編號：2151453
[Abstract]:Since the China Securities Regulatory Commission promulgated and implemented the "measures for the Administration of Securities issuance of listed companies" in 2006, because of the relatively short approval process, the long-term stability of the financing obtained, the low threshold and the advantages of a certain discount for investors, etc. Listed companies and investors favour them. 2014 to 2016 was the fastest growing year for growth, with only 281 actual offerings in 2013, with 3440,400 in total. 1.8 billion yuan, in 2016, the actual number of annual fund-raising 794, the actual size of the collection reached 1, 008. 9.9 billion yuan, an increase of 423.3 percent over 2013. Five, set a record high. However, sometimes due to the market environment, the company's fundamental changes and other reasons, after the implementation of the fixed increase, the secondary market share price fell below the fixed issue price of the "directional issuance break phenomenon." With the constant increase in the number of times and the constant increase in the size of the phenomenon has become frequent. Most scholars at home and abroad mainly focus on the announcement effect of fixed increase announcement, the theory of large shareholder support and encroachment, and the short-term effect of fixed growth of listed companies, etc. The breakthrough point of this paper is the breaking phenomenon before the release of the ban, which is relatively novel. In this paper, the stock price trends of the target companies in China's A share market from 2014 to 2016 after the implementation of directional additional offerings to the day of lifting the ban are statistically analyzed and screened. The sample data are divided into the bull period from 1 January 2014 to 31 May 2015, the bear market stage from 1 June 2015 to 28 February 2016 and the full sample period from 1 January 2014 to 28 February 2016. The proportion of major shareholders subscription, the proportion of fixed increase scale to total market value size, circulating market value, gross profit rate, net asset return rate, enterprise nature, Shanghai Composite Index rise and fall in the same period eight independent variables, using SPSS software to carry out multivariate linear regression, Analysis of the largest increase after breaking to the lifting of the ban on the relevant factors. The results show that the maximum break ratio, gross profit margin, enterprise nature, the rise and fall of Shanghai Composite Index in the same period and the five variables of constant are significant. In the bear market stage, the maximum break ratio, the proportion of constant increase and market value, the circulating market value, the rise and fall of Shanghai Composite Index and the constant five variables are significant. In the whole sample interval, the maximum break ratio, circulation market value, gross profit margin, enterprise nature, the rise and fall of Shanghai Composite Index in the same period and six variables of constant are significant. The multivariate linear regression equation based on the whole sample data is the best one, and there are many significant variables. The reason may be that the total sample data is large and the influence of market environment and other factors on the regression results can be well eliminated when multivariate regression is carried out. Finally, according to the conclusion, this paper puts forward the investment strategy suggestions based on the phenomenon of directional placement break, which has strong practical significance.
【學位授予單位】：蘭州大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.51
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