【摘要】：2014年以來,中國房地產(chǎn)市場經(jīng)歷了明顯的衰退和復(fù)蘇的調(diào)整過程,在衰退階段,房地產(chǎn)市場總需求和總供給出現(xiàn)了結(jié)構(gòu)失衡的局面,對經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生了負(fù)面影響。如何減輕房地產(chǎn)市場調(diào)整對宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的負(fù)面影響成為未來中國經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵。本文從貨幣政策反應(yīng)函數(shù)的視角出發(fā),模擬分析在貨幣政策反應(yīng)函數(shù)考慮和不考慮房價(jià)波動(dòng)的情形下,房地產(chǎn)市場進(jìn)入衰退階段對宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響。結(jié)果表明:(1)當(dāng)貨幣政策反應(yīng)函數(shù)考慮房價(jià)波動(dòng)時(shí),能夠有效減輕房地產(chǎn)市場進(jìn)入衰退階段對宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的負(fù)面影響;(2)當(dāng)貨幣政策反應(yīng)函數(shù)考慮房價(jià)波動(dòng)時(shí),能夠顯著減輕房地產(chǎn)市場進(jìn)入衰退階段時(shí)房價(jià)的波動(dòng)程度,進(jìn)而實(shí)現(xiàn)更小的社會福利損失。
[Abstract]:Since 2014, China's real estate market has gone through a process of adjustment of recession and recovery. During the recession period, the aggregate demand and supply of real estate market has been out of balance, which has a negative impact on economic development. How to mitigate the negative impact of real estate market adjustment on macroeconomic operation is the key to the smooth development of Chinese economy in the future. From the point of view of monetary policy response function, this paper simulates and analyzes the impact of the real estate market entering into recession stage on the macro economy when the monetary policy response function considers and does not consider the fluctuation of house price. The results show that: (1) when the monetary policy response function considers the fluctuation of house price, it can effectively mitigate the negative impact of the real estate market entering the recession stage on the macro economy; (2) when the monetary policy response function considers the fluctuation of house price, It can significantly reduce the volatility of house prices when the real estate market enters the recession phase, and then achieve a smaller social welfare loss.
【作者單位】： 南京大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;浙江工商大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;
【分類號】：F299.23;F822.0

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