黑龍江省農(nóng)業(yè)貸款對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)影響實(shí)證研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-18 13:52
【摘要】：作為農(nóng)業(yè)大省,黑龍江省在“十三五”時(shí)期面臨著結(jié)構(gòu)性改革與發(fā)展,在推進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革,破解農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展難題、促進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)持續(xù)穩(wěn)定發(fā)展、加快農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的過程中均離不開農(nóng)業(yè)貸款作為必要的資金支持和保障。在諸多國(guó)內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)研究中,關(guān)于農(nóng)業(yè)貸款對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響分析,國(guó)外學(xué)者更側(cè)重于以國(guó)家整體作為研究和分析的對(duì)象,在具體分析某國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展實(shí)際情況時(shí),側(cè)重分析造成農(nóng)業(yè)貸款發(fā)展水平低的原因,研究范圍較為宏觀。相比之下,國(guó)內(nèi)學(xué)者更側(cè)重于從微觀細(xì)化的角度對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)貸款同農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展關(guān)系的角度研究,研究范圍多為全國(guó)性或區(qū)域性,研究采用的實(shí)證分析方法較為豐富和多樣化,但是對(duì)于全國(guó)范圍的研究結(jié)果較為相近,即農(nóng)業(yè)貸款對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)影響具有區(qū)域化特征,而對(duì)具體省份區(qū)域的研究相對(duì)較少。由于農(nóng)業(yè)貸款對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)影響的區(qū)域化差異明顯,對(duì)具體省份和地區(qū)的研究應(yīng)結(jié)合當(dāng)?shù)貙?shí)際農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平和農(nóng)村金融相關(guān)政策。本研究選取黑龍江省作為研究對(duì)象的原因在于其為我國(guó)重要的農(nóng)業(yè)省份,農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展對(duì)當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)濟(jì)生活影響較大。同時(shí),研究黑龍江省農(nóng)業(yè)貸款對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響對(duì)其他農(nóng)業(yè)省份合理利用農(nóng)業(yè)貸款資源具有一定的指導(dǎo)和借鑒意義。本研究在明確農(nóng)業(yè)貸款與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)相關(guān)概念和理論的基礎(chǔ)上,首先從反映黑龍江省農(nóng)業(yè)貸款規(guī)�，F(xiàn)狀、農(nóng)業(yè)貸款發(fā)展效率現(xiàn)狀以及農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展整體現(xiàn)狀等角度做宏觀的定性分析與描述;其次,明確農(nóng)業(yè)貸款對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制,并在廣泛閱讀相關(guān)研究文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上以全面、客觀的原則選取可以代表黑龍江省農(nóng)業(yè)貸款發(fā)展的指標(biāo)變量,建立有效的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系;第三,從定量分析角度對(duì)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化處理后的指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)做主成分分析與公因子提取,即降低指標(biāo)變量間的相關(guān)關(guān)系和信息重疊,又實(shí)現(xiàn)精簡(jiǎn)變量的目的,有效地從多項(xiàng)指標(biāo)變量中提取出轉(zhuǎn)化效率公因子與規(guī)模深度公因子,對(duì)提取的兩個(gè)公因子與經(jīng)對(duì)數(shù)化處理后的農(nóng)林牧漁生產(chǎn)總值做單位根檢驗(yàn)與杰森協(xié)整分析并建立VAR向量自回歸模型,利用格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)分析農(nóng)業(yè)貸款與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展間存在單向因果關(guān)系,進(jìn)而建立農(nóng)業(yè)貸款與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展間的向量自回歸估計(jì)模型。實(shí)證分析結(jié)果顯示,對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展有正向促進(jìn)作用的影響因素為農(nóng)業(yè)貸款的轉(zhuǎn)化效率因子與規(guī)模深度因子,其中促進(jìn)作用較為顯著的是轉(zhuǎn)化效率因子。針對(duì)上述實(shí)證分析結(jié)果,結(jié)合黑龍江省農(nóng)業(yè)貸款與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的實(shí)際狀況,建議創(chuàng)新農(nóng)村金融服務(wù)產(chǎn)品和農(nóng)業(yè)貸款服務(wù)模式、引導(dǎo)農(nóng)村資金回流農(nóng)村、完善農(nóng)業(yè)貸款投放方式、健全完善農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)制度與農(nóng)業(yè)貸款信用擔(dān)保體系,從而更好地發(fā)揮農(nóng)業(yè)貸款的影響作用。
[Abstract]:As a big agricultural province, Heilongjiang Province is facing structural reform and development during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. In promoting the structural reform on the supply side of agriculture, we can solve the problem of agricultural development and promote the sustainable and stable development of agriculture. The process of accelerating agricultural modernization and agricultural economic development can not be separated from agricultural loan as necessary financial support and guarantee. In many domestic and foreign literature studies, on the analysis of the impact of agricultural loans on agricultural economy, foreign scholars pay more attention to the research and analysis of the whole country, in the specific analysis of the actual situation of a country's agricultural economy development. Focus on the analysis of the reasons for the low level of agricultural loan development, the scope of the study is more macro. In contrast, domestic scholars pay more attention to the study of the relationship between agricultural loans and agricultural economic development from the perspective of micro-refinement. The research scope is mostly national or regional, and the empirical analysis methods used in the research are relatively rich and diversified. However, the national research results are similar, that is, the impact of agricultural loans on agricultural economic growth has the characteristics of regionalization, while the study of specific provinces and regions is relatively small. Because the regionalization difference of agricultural loan's influence on agricultural economic growth is obvious, the research on specific provinces and regions should be combined with the development level of local agricultural economy and the relevant policies of rural finance. The reason for choosing Heilongjiang Province as the research object is that it is an important agricultural province in China, and agricultural development has a great impact on local economic life. At the same time, the study of the impact of agricultural loans on the development of agricultural economy in Heilongjiang Province has certain guiding and referential significance for other agricultural provinces to make rational use of agricultural loan resources. On the basis of defining the concepts and theories of agricultural loan and agricultural economic growth, this study first reflects the current situation of agricultural loan scale in Heilongjiang Province. The present situation of agricultural loan development efficiency and the overall situation of agricultural economic development are analyzed and described qualitatively. Secondly, the transmission mechanism of agricultural loan to agricultural economic development is clarified. And on the basis of extensive reading of the relevant research literature on the basis of comprehensive and objective principles can represent the development of agricultural loans in Heilongjiang Province indicators variables to establish an effective evaluation index system; third, From the point of view of quantitative analysis, the principal component analysis and common factor extraction of standardized treated index data are made, that is, to reduce the correlation between index variables and information overlap, and to achieve the purpose of reducing variables. The conversion efficiency common factor and the scale depth common factor are effectively extracted from a number of index variables. A VAR vector autoregressive model was established by unit root test and Jason cointegration analysis of the two common factors extracted and the logarithmic treatment of agricultural, forestry, pastoral and fishery gross value. The Granger causality test is used to analyze the one-way causality between agricultural loan and agricultural economic development, and then a vector autoregressive estimation model between agricultural loan and agricultural economic development is established. The results of empirical analysis show that the factors that have a positive effect on the development of agricultural economy are the conversion efficiency factor and the scale depth factor of agricultural loan, among which the most significant one is the conversion efficiency factor. In view of the above empirical analysis results, combined with the actual situation of agricultural loans and agricultural economic development in Heilongjiang Province, it is suggested to innovate rural financial service products and agricultural loan service models, and to guide rural funds to return to rural areas. Improve the mode of agricultural loans, improve the agricultural insurance system and agricultural loan credit guarantee system, so as to play a better role in the impact of agricultural loans.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F832.43;F327
本文編號(hào)：2132103
[Abstract]:As a big agricultural province, Heilongjiang Province is facing structural reform and development during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. In promoting the structural reform on the supply side of agriculture, we can solve the problem of agricultural development and promote the sustainable and stable development of agriculture. The process of accelerating agricultural modernization and agricultural economic development can not be separated from agricultural loan as necessary financial support and guarantee. In many domestic and foreign literature studies, on the analysis of the impact of agricultural loans on agricultural economy, foreign scholars pay more attention to the research and analysis of the whole country, in the specific analysis of the actual situation of a country's agricultural economy development. Focus on the analysis of the reasons for the low level of agricultural loan development, the scope of the study is more macro. In contrast, domestic scholars pay more attention to the study of the relationship between agricultural loans and agricultural economic development from the perspective of micro-refinement. The research scope is mostly national or regional, and the empirical analysis methods used in the research are relatively rich and diversified. However, the national research results are similar, that is, the impact of agricultural loans on agricultural economic growth has the characteristics of regionalization, while the study of specific provinces and regions is relatively small. Because the regionalization difference of agricultural loan's influence on agricultural economic growth is obvious, the research on specific provinces and regions should be combined with the development level of local agricultural economy and the relevant policies of rural finance. The reason for choosing Heilongjiang Province as the research object is that it is an important agricultural province in China, and agricultural development has a great impact on local economic life. At the same time, the study of the impact of agricultural loans on the development of agricultural economy in Heilongjiang Province has certain guiding and referential significance for other agricultural provinces to make rational use of agricultural loan resources. On the basis of defining the concepts and theories of agricultural loan and agricultural economic growth, this study first reflects the current situation of agricultural loan scale in Heilongjiang Province. The present situation of agricultural loan development efficiency and the overall situation of agricultural economic development are analyzed and described qualitatively. Secondly, the transmission mechanism of agricultural loan to agricultural economic development is clarified. And on the basis of extensive reading of the relevant research literature on the basis of comprehensive and objective principles can represent the development of agricultural loans in Heilongjiang Province indicators variables to establish an effective evaluation index system; third, From the point of view of quantitative analysis, the principal component analysis and common factor extraction of standardized treated index data are made, that is, to reduce the correlation between index variables and information overlap, and to achieve the purpose of reducing variables. The conversion efficiency common factor and the scale depth common factor are effectively extracted from a number of index variables. A VAR vector autoregressive model was established by unit root test and Jason cointegration analysis of the two common factors extracted and the logarithmic treatment of agricultural, forestry, pastoral and fishery gross value. The Granger causality test is used to analyze the one-way causality between agricultural loan and agricultural economic development, and then a vector autoregressive estimation model between agricultural loan and agricultural economic development is established. The results of empirical analysis show that the factors that have a positive effect on the development of agricultural economy are the conversion efficiency factor and the scale depth factor of agricultural loan, among which the most significant one is the conversion efficiency factor. In view of the above empirical analysis results, combined with the actual situation of agricultural loans and agricultural economic development in Heilongjiang Province, it is suggested to innovate rural financial service products and agricultural loan service models, and to guide rural funds to return to rural areas. Improve the mode of agricultural loans, improve the agricultural insurance system and agricultural loan credit guarantee system, so as to play a better role in the impact of agricultural loans.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F832.43;F327
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