發(fā)布時間：2018-07-16 13:02

【摘要】：人民幣對美元匯率從升值通道轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橘H值預(yù)期,引起對中國外貿(mào)發(fā)展變化的關(guān)注,該文總結(jié)了基于總量貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)實證研究匯率貿(mào)易效應(yīng)的不足,考慮到宏觀經(jīng)濟變量之間存在非對稱性調(diào)整機制,利用中美雙邊貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)構(gòu)建兩種自回歸分布滯后模型(ARDL),分別回歸分析匯率變動的對稱性和非對稱性貿(mào)易效應(yīng),并在此基礎(chǔ)上選擇主要行業(yè)進(jìn)行細(xì)分行業(yè)實證檢驗。對稱性模型檢驗結(jié)果顯示:人民幣匯率變動的J曲線效應(yīng)不存在,而且匯率變動對中美貿(mào)易的長期影響效應(yīng)不顯著,非對稱性模型提供了比對稱性模型更多的證據(jù)來支持實際匯率的短期效應(yīng),人民幣實際匯率升值對中美貿(mào)易長期影響效應(yīng)得到驗證,而且非對稱性模型檢驗結(jié)果證實了貿(mào)易平衡的短期非對稱性調(diào)整效應(yīng),主要貿(mào)易行業(yè)檢驗結(jié)果反映了人民幣匯率變動貿(mào)易效應(yīng)的行業(yè)差異以及影響時效差異,證實了行業(yè)差異對制定人民幣匯率變動下行業(yè)貿(mào)易調(diào)整策略的指導(dǎo)意義;最后提出人民幣貶值新預(yù)期下制定審慎的貿(mào)易政策建議。
[Abstract]:The RMB / US dollar exchange rate has changed from a channel of appreciation to an expectation of depreciation, which has aroused the concern of the development and change of China's foreign trade. This paper summarizes the deficiency of empirical research on the effect of exchange rate trade based on the aggregate trade data. Considering the asymmetric adjustment mechanism between macroeconomic variables, two autoregressive distributed lag models (ARDL) are constructed by using bilateral trade data of China and the United States, and the symmetry and asymmetric trade effects of exchange rate changes are regressed respectively. On the basis of this, we choose the main industries to carry out empirical test of subdivision industries. The results of symmetry model test show that the J curve effect of RMB exchange rate change does not exist, and the long-term effect of exchange rate change on Sino-US trade is not significant. The asymmetric model provides more evidence than the symmetry model to support the short-term effect of the real exchange rate. Moreover, the results of asymmetric model test confirm the short-term asymmetric adjustment effect of trade balance, and the main trade industry test results reflect the industry difference of the trade effect of RMB exchange rate change and the difference of influence time. The paper confirms the guiding significance of industry differences in formulating industrial trade adjustment strategies under the change of RMB exchange rate, and finally puts forward some prudent trade policy suggestions under the new expectation of RMB depreciation.
【作者單位】： 上海立信會計金融學(xué)院金融學(xué)院;上海立信會計金融學(xué)院國際經(jīng)貿(mào)學(xué)院;上海立信會計金融學(xué)院財務(wù)處;
【基金】：國家社科基金一般項目“中國在全球生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)中的角色變遷與對外經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變”(編號:14BJL053) 上海市教育發(fā)展基金會和上海市教育委員會“曙光計劃”(編號:16PJC065) 上海市浦江人才計劃資助(編號:16SG51) 中國博士后科學(xué)基金資助項目(編號:2017M611424)的資助
【分類號】：F752.7;F757.12;F832.6

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