本文選題：委內(nèi)瑞拉 + 超級通貨膨脹�。� 參考：《國際經(jīng)濟(jì)評論》2017年06期

【摘要】：委內(nèi)瑞拉經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢近年來快速惡化,在2016年陷入超級通脹和深度衰退。流行看法是委內(nèi)瑞拉遭受到"荷蘭病"困擾,并受到"異常貿(mào)易"的不利沖擊。本文的對比分析表明,"荷蘭病"理論至多可解釋委內(nèi)瑞拉的經(jīng)濟(jì)下行,但無法說明其深度衰退和超級通脹。中美兩國與委內(nèi)瑞拉雙邊貿(mào)易的對比分析也表明,導(dǎo)致委內(nèi)瑞拉對外貿(mào)易出現(xiàn)不利變化的主要因素除了國際油價的下跌外還有其國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)問題。本文認(rèn)為,委內(nèi)瑞拉當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)問題的根源在于經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的偏差,尤其是長期以來追求財政支出擴(kuò)張和外匯管制。外匯管制導(dǎo)致市場匯率與官方匯率的分離,并在一定條件下促使市場匯率("平行匯率")成為引導(dǎo)委內(nèi)瑞拉人民匯率預(yù)期和通脹預(yù)期的重要指示器。當(dāng)國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)其他方面在2013年出現(xiàn)不利轉(zhuǎn)變跡象后,市場匯率更加突出地發(fā)揮了助推通貨膨脹不斷升高的作用。通脹高企本身也加重了委內(nèi)瑞拉的國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)困難,給政府帶來更大的財政壓力。委內(nèi)瑞拉正面臨一個兩難局面:要么進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)管制,要么在國際協(xié)助下全面放松,第三條"中間道路"很難行得通。
[Abstract]:Venezuela's economy has deteriorated rapidly in recent years, plunging into hyperinflation and a deep recession in 2016. The prevailing view is that Venezuela suffers from Dutch disease and is adversely affected by abnormal trade. The comparative analysis shows that the Dutch disease theory can explain Venezuela's economic downturn at best, but it does not explain its deep recession and super inflation. A comparative analysis of bilateral trade between China and the United States and Venezuela also shows that the main factors contributing to the adverse changes in Venezuela's foreign trade are not only the fall in international oil prices but also its domestic economic problems. This paper argues that the root of Venezuela's current economic problems lies in the deviation of economic policy, especially the pursuit of fiscal expansion and foreign exchange control for a long time. Foreign exchange control causes the separation of the market exchange rate from the official exchange rate, and under certain conditions makes the market exchange rate ("parallel exchange rate") an important indicator to guide Venezuelan people's expectation of exchange rate and inflation. When the rest of the domestic economy showed signs of a negative shift in 2013, the market exchange rate played a more prominent role in boosting inflation. High inflation itself has exacerbated Venezuela's domestic economic woes, putting greater fiscal pressure on the government. Venezuela faces a dilemma: either further regulation or a general relaxation with international assistance, and a third "middle road" is difficult to work.
【作者單位】： 北京師范大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與工商管理學(xué)院;
【分類號】：F177.4;F827.74
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本文編號：2091578