發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-06-30 21:43

  本文選題：過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能 + 出口　； 參考：《財(cái)貿(mào)經(jīng)濟(jì)》2017年09期

【摘要】：如何平穩(wěn)化解企業(yè)過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能是經(jīng)濟(jì)新常態(tài)下我國(guó)企業(yè)能否實(shí)現(xiàn)良性發(fā)展所面臨的重要現(xiàn)實(shí)難題,而出口和對(duì)外直接投資則是解決這一問(wèn)題可供選擇的兩個(gè)重要路徑。本文分析了出口與對(duì)外直接投資化解過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能的內(nèi)在機(jī)制,并基于2007-2015年中國(guó)A股上市公司面板數(shù)據(jù),比較了出口與對(duì)外直接投資對(duì)企業(yè)化解過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能的差異化影響。研究結(jié)果顯示:提升對(duì)外出口水平仍是削減企業(yè)過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能的主要突破口,而對(duì)外直接投資尚未成為企業(yè)化解過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能的主要路徑。雖然出口增加對(duì)化解過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能存在一定的負(fù)向反饋效應(yīng),但這一負(fù)向作用并沒(méi)有抵銷出口對(duì)化解過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能的正向作用。盡管從理論上看,對(duì)外直接投資與出口相比,更能夠化解企業(yè)過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能,但我國(guó)企業(yè)對(duì)外投資的時(shí)間短、總量小,尚未對(duì)消化過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能產(chǎn)生顯著影響。上述結(jié)論在使用多個(gè)估計(jì)方法、替換變量測(cè)度方法等分析后仍然是穩(wěn)健的。本文研究為客觀評(píng)估出口與對(duì)外直接投資對(duì)化解過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能的影響提供了一個(gè)微觀層面的經(jīng)驗(yàn)證據(jù),同時(shí)也為進(jìn)一步合理消化過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能提供了有益的路徑參考和政策啟示。
[Abstract]:How to smooth out the excess capacity of enterprises is an important practical problem for Chinese enterprises to realize healthy development under the new normal state of economy, and export and foreign direct investment are two important ways to solve this problem. Based on the panel data of China A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2015, this paper analyzes the internal mechanism of export and foreign direct investment (OFDI) to resolve excess capacity, and compares the differential effects of export and OFDI on enterprises' overcapacity. The results show that increasing the level of export is still the main breakthrough to reduce the excess capacity of enterprises, and foreign direct investment has not become the main way for enterprises to resolve excess capacity. Although the export increase has some negative feedback effect on the solution of excess capacity, but this negative effect does not offset the positive effect of export on the solution of excess capacity. Although in theory foreign direct investment (FDI) is more effective than export in solving the overcapacity of enterprises, the time of Chinese enterprises' foreign investment is short and the total amount is small, which has not yet had a significant impact on the digestion of excess capacity. The above conclusions are still robust after using multiple estimation methods and alternative variable measure methods. This study provides a microcosmic empirical evidence for the objective evaluation of the impact of export and FDI on the solution of excess capacity, and also provides a useful path reference and policy inspiration for further rational digestion of excess capacity.
【作者單位】： 合肥工業(yè)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金一般項(xiàng)目“出口學(xué)習(xí)效應(yīng)促進(jìn)傳統(tǒng)制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)的機(jī)制與政策研究”(14BJL088) 教育部哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)研究重大課題攻關(guān)項(xiàng)目“泛TPP經(jīng)貿(mào)規(guī)則下我國(guó)融入國(guó)際價(jià)值鏈分工戰(zhàn)略研究”(16JZD019) 合肥工業(yè)大學(xué)哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)培育計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目“貿(mào)易發(fā)展模式轉(zhuǎn)型背景下金融比較優(yōu)勢(shì)的形成機(jī)理與出口效應(yīng)研究”(JS2017HGXJ0029)
【分類號(hào)】：F752.62;F832.6

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