本文選題：經(jīng)濟(jì)周期 + 金融周期��； 參考：《安徽大學(xué)學(xué)報(哲學(xué)社會科學(xué)版)》2017年01期

【摘要】：次貸危機(jī)發(fā)生至今,世界經(jīng)濟(jì)和全球貿(mào)易仍處于下行長周期中。經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的沖擊使得世界經(jīng)濟(jì)處于通縮風(fēng)險的壓力之下。單純以需求管理政策應(yīng)對次貸危機(jī)沖擊并沒有帶來全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇,反而帶來了債務(wù)風(fēng)險的累積。潛在GDP以及勞動生產(chǎn)率下滑是寬松的貨幣難以進(jìn)入實體經(jīng)濟(jì)的根本原因,貨幣進(jìn)入實體經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)了內(nèi)生性下降。資本追逐高收益率的屬性必然引發(fā)過多的貨幣追逐金融資產(chǎn),導(dǎo)致債券、股票和不動產(chǎn)等金融資產(chǎn)的價格逐步趨高,全球經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入資產(chǎn)財富時期。世界經(jīng)濟(jì)正在經(jīng)歷通縮風(fēng)險壓力的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期和以資產(chǎn)價格"泡沫"等為特征的金融周期的雙重沖擊。經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的非同步性和金融周期的同步性共存,對全球宏觀政策的合作與協(xié)調(diào)提出了嚴(yán)峻考驗,全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的前景依然面臨重大的不確定性。在這種形勢下,貨幣政策要側(cè)重于管理金融周期,穩(wěn)金融就是穩(wěn)預(yù)期;要利用財政政策和其他結(jié)構(gòu)性政策應(yīng)對經(jīng)濟(jì)潛在產(chǎn)出率的下滑。
[Abstract]:The world economy and global trade are still in a long period of decline since the subprime crisis occurred. The impact of the economic cycle puts the world economy under pressure from the risk of deflation. The demand management policy to deal with the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis has not brought about a global economic recovery, but has brought about the accumulation of debt risk. Potential GDP and declining labor productivity are the fundamental reasons for the difficulty for loose money to enter the real economy, and the endogenous decline in the entry of money into the real economy. The property of capital chasing high yield will inevitably lead to too much money chasing financial assets, leading to higher prices of financial assets such as bonds, stocks and real estate, and the global economy has entered the period of asset wealth. The world economy is experiencing a double shock of deflationary risk pressures and financial cycles characterized by asset price bubbles. The coexistence of synchronization of economic cycle and synchronization of financial cycle puts forward a severe test to the cooperation and coordination of global macro policy, and the prospect of global economic recovery still faces great uncertainty. In such a situation, monetary policy should focus on managing the financial cycle. Stabilizing finance means stabilizing expectations. Fiscal policy and other structural policies should be used to cope with the decline in the potential output rate of the economy.
【作者單位】： 中國人民大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;
【基金】：教育部人文社科重點研究基地重大項目(14JJD790022) 中國人民大學(xué)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇和世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇階段性研究成果
【分類號】：F113.7;F831

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