本文選題：市場基準(zhǔn)利率 + 利率傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制�。� 參考：《浙江大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：2015年10月,中國人民銀行宣布取消存款利率浮動上限,這表明我國利率市場化改革已基本完成。迄今為止,我國貨幣當(dāng)局推出了以Shibor、LPR以及國債收益率曲線為代表的貨幣、債券及信貸市場基準(zhǔn)利率體系,并靈活運(yùn)用常備借貸便利(SLF)等新型貨幣政策工具來推進(jìn)利率走廊調(diào)控,這一系列措施表明我國貨幣政策正在從數(shù)量型調(diào)控向利率型調(diào)控轉(zhuǎn)型,符合"十三五"規(guī)劃對金融領(lǐng)域改革所提出的要求。本文主要研究了市場基準(zhǔn)利率與我國貨幣政策目標(biāo)之間的相關(guān)性。為此,本文首先闡述了我國利率市場化的改革進(jìn)程、市場基準(zhǔn)利率的形成機(jī)制以及貨幣政策中介目標(biāo)的選擇標(biāo)準(zhǔn),進(jìn)而分析了我國人行選取利率作為貨幣政策中介目標(biāo)的可行性。其次,本文對貨幣政策的利率傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制按照從操作目標(biāo)到中介目標(biāo)、再到最終目標(biāo)的時(shí)間順序進(jìn)行詳細(xì)分析,其中從操作目標(biāo)到中介目標(biāo)的利率傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制又依次從"央行至貨幣市場"以及"貨幣市場至資本市場"兩個(gè)角度進(jìn)行研究。然后,本文以2007年1月至2016年12月的月度數(shù)據(jù)為樣本進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析,本文主要運(yùn)用Johansen協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)及脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)等方法研究了 Shibor與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(GDP、消費(fèi)、投資、出口)以及物價(jià)穩(wěn)定(CPI)之間的相關(guān)性,并在模型中加入貨幣供應(yīng)量M2指標(biāo)作為對照。結(jié)果表明,Shibor與GDP、CPI之間存在格蘭杰因果關(guān)系,但脈沖響應(yīng)的反應(yīng)路徑并不顯著。因此,雖然我國存在從央行到實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的利率傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制,但仍不夠通暢,有待繼續(xù)監(jiān)測。綜上所述,本文認(rèn)為我國貨幣政策的利率傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制雖然從理論角度看存在并且符合邏輯,但實(shí)際發(fā)揮的作用仍較有限,市場基準(zhǔn)利率指標(biāo)與貨幣政策目標(biāo)之間的相關(guān)性比較微弱,故在當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型期間,貨幣當(dāng)局在實(shí)施貨幣政策時(shí)應(yīng)兼顧數(shù)量型指標(biāo)和價(jià)格型指標(biāo),同時(shí)繼續(xù)深化經(jīng)濟(jì)金融體制改革,培育健全成熟的市場基準(zhǔn)利率體系,切實(shí)加快多層次金融市場體系建設(shè)。
[Abstract]:In October 2015, the people's Bank of China announced the abolition of the ceiling on the floating interest rate of deposits, which indicates that the reform of interest rate marketization in China has basically been completed. So far, the monetary authorities of our country have introduced a benchmark interest rate system for money, bonds and credit markets, represented by Shiboran LPR and the yield curve of national debt, and flexible use of new monetary policy tools such as the standing loan facility (SLFF) to promote interest rate corridor regulation. This series of measures indicates that China's monetary policy is transforming from quantitative to interest-rate control, which is in line with the requirements of the 13th Five-Year Plan for financial sector reform. This paper mainly studies the correlation between the market benchmark interest rate and the monetary policy objectives of our country. For this reason, this article first elaborated our country interest rate marketization reform process, the market benchmark interest rate formation mechanism as well as the monetary policy intermediary target choice standard. Then it analyzes the feasibility of the people's Bank of China to select interest rate as the intermediate target of monetary policy. Secondly, this paper makes a detailed analysis of the transmission mechanism of interest rate in monetary policy according to the time sequence from the operational objective to the intermediate objective, and then to the final goal. The transmission mechanism of interest rate from operation target to intermediate target is studied from two angles: "central bank to money market" and "money market to capital market". Then, based on the monthly data from January 2007 to December 2016, this paper mainly uses Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test and impulse response function to study Shibor and economic growth, consumption, investment, etc. The correlation between export and CPI is analyzed, and the M2 index of money supply is added to the model as a control. The results show that there is a Granger causality relationship between Shibor and GDP CPI, but the response path of pulse response is not significant. Therefore, although China has an interest rate transmission mechanism from the central bank to the real economy, it is still not smooth enough to be monitored. To sum up, this paper holds that although the interest rate transmission mechanism of monetary policy in China exists from a theoretical point of view and is in line with logic, it still plays a relatively limited role in practice. The correlation between the market benchmark interest rate index and the monetary policy objective is relatively weak. Therefore, during the period of current economic transformation, monetary authorities should take both quantitative and price indicators into account in the implementation of monetary policy. At the same time, we will continue to deepen the reform of the economic and financial system, foster and improve the mature market benchmark interest rate system, and earnestly speed up the construction of a multi-level financial market system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F822.0

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 馬駿;施康;王紅林;王立升;;利率傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制的動態(tài)研究[J];金融研究;2016年01期

2 馬駿;王紅林;;政策利率傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制的理論模型[J];金融研究;2014年12期

3 劉方;;中國利率市場化改革效應(yīng)的DSGE模擬分析[J];南方金融;2014年02期

4 戴曉兵;;利率市場化、利率敏感性與貨幣政策中介目標(biāo)選擇[J];金融論壇;2013年08期

5 戴國海;李偉;;SHIBOR在我國基準(zhǔn)利率體系中的地位及其完善渠道研究[J];金融監(jiān)管研究;2013年06期

6 金中夏;洪浩;李宏瑾;;利率市場化對貨幣政策有效性和經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的影響[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2013年04期

7 劉金全;張小宇;;時(shí)變參數(shù)“泰勒規(guī)則”在我國貨幣政策操作中的實(shí)證研究[J];管理世界;2012年07期

8 李良松;柳永明;;新魏克塞爾主義下我國基準(zhǔn)利率的比較與定位[J];財(cái)經(jīng)研究;2009年06期

9 易綱;;中國改革開放三十年的利率市場化進(jìn)程[J];金融研究;2009年01期

10 盛松成;吳培新;;中國貨幣政策的二元傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制——“兩中介目標(biāo),兩調(diào)控對象”模式研究[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2008年10期

，

本文編號：1989254