本文選題：貨幣政策 + 匯率政策�。� 參考：《國(guó)際經(jīng)貿(mào)探索》2017年10期

【摘要】：文章分析了匯率政策對(duì)貨幣政策的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)理,在此基礎(chǔ)上,選取2005-2015年度的月度數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)匯率政策對(duì)貨幣政策的傳導(dǎo)特征進(jìn)行了實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)與敏感度分析,并給出了相關(guān)政策建議。研究表明:(1)匯率政策對(duì)貨幣政策的傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)呈現(xiàn)顯著的數(shù)量型特征,匯率政策對(duì)貨幣供給量存在顯著影響,但匯率政策對(duì)利率不存在顯著影響。(2)長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,匯率政策對(duì)貨幣供給量具有負(fù)向影響,貨幣供給量已成為匯率政策對(duì)貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)的重要載體。短期來(lái)看,匯率政策對(duì)貨幣供給量具有正向影響,但貨幣供給量在匯率政策對(duì)貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)中的載體功能還是有效的。(3)在糾偏速度層面,匯改前后貨幣供給量與外匯儲(chǔ)備均存在長(zhǎng)期正向均衡關(guān)系,一旦貨幣供給量短期內(nèi)偏離與外匯儲(chǔ)備的長(zhǎng)期均衡關(guān)系,則貨幣供給量回歸到長(zhǎng)期均衡狀態(tài)的反向糾偏速度將從匯改前的0.6528%提升到匯改后的3.3367%,反向糾偏速度提升了5.11倍。在響應(yīng)速度層面,貨幣供給量對(duì)外匯儲(chǔ)備沖擊的響應(yīng)速度從匯改前的第10期達(dá)到最大響應(yīng)值提前到匯改后的第6期達(dá)到最大響應(yīng)值,響應(yīng)速度提高了66.67%�？梢�(jiàn),匯改前后中國(guó)匯率政策對(duì)貨幣政策的傳導(dǎo)敏感度出現(xiàn)大幅提升,足以說(shuō)明中國(guó)實(shí)施人民幣匯率形成機(jī)制改革已取得很大成效。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of exchange rate policy to monetary policy. On this basis, we select the monthly data of 2005-2015 year, make an empirical test and sensitivity analysis on the exchange rate policy transmission characteristics to monetary policy, and give some relevant policy suggestions. (1) the study shows that the exchange rate policy has a remarkable transmission effect on monetary policy. The exchange rate policy has a significant influence on the money supply, but the exchange rate policy has no significant influence on the interest rate. (2) in the long run, the exchange rate policy has a negative impact on the money supply, and the money supply has become the important carrier of the exchange rate policy transmission to the monetary policy. In the short term, the exchange rate policy is used to measure the money supply. There is a positive effect, but the amount of money supply is still effective in the transmission of currency policy on the transmission of monetary policy. (3) at the angle of correction, there is a long-term positive equilibrium relationship between the amount of money supply and the foreign exchange reserve before and after the reform, and the amount of money supply returns once the supply of money is deviated from the long-term equilibrium of the foreign exchange reserve. In the long-term equilibrium, the reverse correction speed will be increased from 0.6528% before the remittance change to 3.3367% after the remittance, and the reverse correction speed is raised by 5.11 times. At the response speed level, the response speed of the money supply to the foreign exchange reserve impact is from the maximum response of the tenth phase before the remittance to the maximum response to the sixth phase after the remittance. The response speed has been improved by 66.67%., and the sensitivity of China's exchange rate policy to monetary policy has been greatly enhanced before and after the reform. It is sufficient to show that China has achieved great success in the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism.
【作者單位】： 東華大學(xué)旭日工商管理學(xué)院;東華大學(xué);
【基金】：國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目(11AJL008);國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金一般項(xiàng)目(13BGL041) 教育部人文社會(huì)科學(xué)研究一般項(xiàng)目(11YJC790051)
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0;F832.6

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