本文選題：張裕A + 投資價值分析��； 參考：《西南民族大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：伴隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的不斷發(fā)展,人們的投資理念也愈發(fā)變得更加的理性、更加的成熟,通過對股價的長時間觀測來反映上市公司的營運(yùn)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略前景,而后運(yùn)用適當(dāng)?shù)姆椒▽善眱r值進(jìn)行評估,從而降低盲目投資造成的投資風(fēng)險。固然近幾年來我國對“三公”消費(fèi)、白酒等的限制使得我國的葡萄酒行業(yè)發(fā)展減緩,但是同時隨著人們生活水平提高,對葡萄酒的關(guān)注也越來越多,尤其是80、90后青年人將成為新一代葡萄酒的主力軍。正處于產(chǎn)業(yè)生命成長期的我國葡萄酒市場對于吸引投資者投資極具競爭力,張裕作為我國葡萄酒行業(yè)龍頭具有較高的成長潛力和投資潛力;另外,煙臺地處我國膠東半島,依山傍海,四季分明,適合葡萄生長的土壤、光照、濕度等都比較充足,這也就給坐落于煙臺的張裕葡萄酒業(yè)的發(fā)展提供了得天獨厚的條件。首先,分析了我國的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)和張裕所處行業(yè)的基本情況,主要來了解外部因素對張裕公司的影響;然后通過張裕公司基本情況的分析,了解了公司的運(yùn)營狀況、競爭力優(yōu)劣勢及發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略等;然后對其財務(wù)狀況進(jìn)行更深層的分析,并與同行業(yè)的其他上市公司進(jìn)行對比;最后以它的歷史數(shù)據(jù)為依據(jù),對張裕公司未來三年的財務(wù)經(jīng)營狀況進(jìn)行了盈利預(yù)測,然后運(yùn)用自由現(xiàn)金流量模型、股利貼現(xiàn)模型和市銷率、市盈率、市凈率估值法從不同的角度對該企業(yè)的未來投資價值進(jìn)行了估值,最終使得張裕A的投資價值區(qū)間范圍的估計更加客觀合理,希望加深廣大投資者對張裕公司的認(rèn)識,幫助投資者更加理性的決策,從而減少投資損失。通過研究本文得出,張裕公司的戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整效果比較好,張裕A股票的發(fā)展比較穩(wěn)健,仍有較大的潛力,可能會給投資者帶來穩(wěn)定的投資收益,比較值得投資者的關(guān)注和投資,建議投資者可以在合理的股價區(qū)間內(nèi)折機(jī)買入。但是同時也要提醒投資者“股市有風(fēng)險,投資需謹(jǐn)慎”,本文所研究的結(jié)果僅僅只能作為投資者投資的一個參考,并不能僅僅以此來判斷張裕A股未來準(zhǔn)確價格,希望投資者謹(jǐn)慎投資。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of the global economy, people's investment concept has become more rational and more mature, through the long-term observation of stock prices to reflect the operational development strategy prospects of listed companies. Then the appropriate method is used to evaluate the stock value so as to reduce the investment risk caused by blind investment. Although the restrictions on the consumption of "Sangong" and liquor in China in recent years have slowed down the development of the wine industry in China, at the same time, with the improvement of people's living standards, more and more attention has been paid to wine. In particular, young people after 80, 90 will become the main force of the new generation of wine. The wine market in China, which is in the period of industrial life, is very competitive in attracting investors' investment. Changyu has high growth potential and investment potential as the leading leader of China's wine industry. In addition, Yantai is located on the Jiaodong Peninsula in China. According to the mountains and the sea, the four seasons are distinct, suitable for grape growth soil, light, humidity and so on are more adequate, which is located in Yantai Changyu wine industry to provide unique conditions for the development. First of all, it analyzes the basic situation of China's macro-economy and the industry in which Zhang Yu is located, mainly to understand the influence of external factors on Changyu Company; then, through the analysis of the basic situation of Changyu Company, we understand the operating situation of the company. Competitive advantages and disadvantages and development strategies, etc.; then the financial situation of the deeper analysis, and compared with other listed companies in the industry; finally, based on its historical data, This paper forecasts the profit of Changyu Company in the next three years, then applies free cash flow model, dividend discount model, market sales ratio, price-earnings ratio. The valuation method of price-to-book ratio evaluates the future investment value of the enterprise from different angles, which finally makes the estimation of the range of investment value of Changyu A more objective and reasonable, hoping to deepen the investors' understanding of Changyu Company. Help investors to make more rational decisions, thereby reducing investment losses. Through the study of this paper, it is concluded that the strategic adjustment effect of Changyu Company is relatively good, the development of Changyu A stock is relatively stable, and there is still great potential, which may bring stable investment returns to investors, and it is more worthy of investors' attention and investment. Investors are advised to buy in a reasonable range of prices. But at the same time, investors should also be reminded that "the stock market is at risk and investment should be cautious." the results of this study can only be used as a reference for investors to invest, and can not only be used to judge the exact price of Changyu A shares in the future. Investors are expected to be cautious.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南民族大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.51

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