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基于擴(kuò)展的索洛模型分析儲(chǔ)蓄投資轉(zhuǎn)化率對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-05-14 00:35

  本文選題:儲(chǔ)蓄 + 儲(chǔ)蓄投資轉(zhuǎn)化率; 參考:《云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文


【摘要】:一個(gè)國(guó)家的持續(xù)進(jìn)步依賴于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),并且資本在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的過(guò)程中扮演著重要的角色。社會(huì)資本的聚集方式有很多,但歸根結(jié)底是來(lái)源于儲(chǔ)蓄,儲(chǔ)蓄在多大程度上能轉(zhuǎn)化為投資制約著一個(gè)國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平,如果儲(chǔ)蓄能完整有效地轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橥顿Y,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展就會(huì)達(dá)到最好的效果。我國(guó)作為一個(gè)發(fā)展中國(guó)家,儲(chǔ)蓄率幾十年來(lái)經(jīng)歷了一個(gè)急速增長(zhǎng)的過(guò)程,達(dá)到了很高的水平,但是高的儲(chǔ)蓄率并不代表著高的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率。數(shù)據(jù)表明,我國(guó)的資本形成效率較低,即投資者能從金融系統(tǒng)獲得的資金不足,實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)所需的投資資金不能及時(shí)從金融系統(tǒng)獲取,這會(huì)嚴(yán)重影響經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。所以,詳細(xì)研究?jī)?chǔ)蓄轉(zhuǎn)化為投資的機(jī)制以此來(lái)刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)顯得尤為關(guān)鍵。本文重點(diǎn)研究?jī)?chǔ)蓄投資轉(zhuǎn)化途徑和機(jī)制,并且側(cè)重于金融方面的間接轉(zhuǎn)化機(jī)制,研究?jī)?chǔ)蓄投資轉(zhuǎn)化率對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的積極作用,并且用實(shí)證證明了儲(chǔ)蓄投資轉(zhuǎn)化率對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有著積極的促進(jìn)作用,在這之后將儲(chǔ)蓄分部門對(duì)投資的影響做了實(shí)證研究,并且最后結(jié)合我國(guó)實(shí)情寫出提高儲(chǔ)蓄投資轉(zhuǎn)化率以及促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的政策建議。本篇文章主要采用文獻(xiàn)研究和實(shí)證研究?jī)煞N方法,首先介紹了相關(guān)的理論基礎(chǔ),并且在儲(chǔ)蓄、投資、儲(chǔ)蓄投資轉(zhuǎn)化率、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)等相關(guān)概念進(jìn)行界定的基礎(chǔ)上,分析了儲(chǔ)蓄投資轉(zhuǎn)化機(jī)制以及本文需要重點(diǎn)研究的金融間接轉(zhuǎn)化機(jī)制。本文主要從資本形成的過(guò)程,而非是資本配置的過(guò)程來(lái)考量?jī)?chǔ)蓄投資轉(zhuǎn)化率,運(yùn)用到社會(huì)融資規(guī)模這一概念,接下來(lái)引入傳統(tǒng)索洛模型,在傳統(tǒng)索洛模型中引入儲(chǔ)蓄投資轉(zhuǎn)化率這個(gè)變量并分析其對(duì)人均GDP、人均資本存量和人均消費(fèi)的影響。利用協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、誤差修正模型和VAR模型、格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)進(jìn)行儲(chǔ)蓄投資轉(zhuǎn)化率對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的實(shí)證分析,來(lái)驗(yàn)證之前的理論研究。結(jié)果表明:儲(chǔ)蓄投資轉(zhuǎn)化率會(huì)促進(jìn)我國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),并且從長(zhǎng)期看會(huì)有非常明顯的促進(jìn)效用。在這之后對(duì)儲(chǔ)蓄分部門進(jìn)行對(duì)投資影響的實(shí)證研究。最后,側(cè)重從儲(chǔ)蓄投資的轉(zhuǎn)化機(jī)制方面給出政策建議,包括資本市場(chǎng)中的間接融資、直接融資、提高部門儲(chǔ)蓄以及從消費(fèi)對(duì)拉動(dòng)投資等幾個(gè)角度來(lái)提出提高儲(chǔ)蓄投資轉(zhuǎn)化率的政策建議。
[Abstract]:A country's sustained progress depends on economic growth, and capital plays an important role in economic development. There are many ways of collecting social capital, but in the final analysis it comes from savings. The extent to which savings can be converted into investment restricts the level of economic development of a country. If savings can be transformed into investment completely and effectively, Economic development will achieve the best results. As a developing country, China's savings rate has experienced a rapid growth in recent decades, which has reached a very high level, but a high savings rate does not represent a high economic growth rate. The data show that the capital formation efficiency of our country is low, that is, the investors can get insufficient funds from the financial system, and the investment funds needed by the real economy cannot be obtained from the financial system in time, which will seriously affect the economic development. Therefore, it is particularly important to study the mechanism of transforming savings into investment to stimulate economic growth. This paper focuses on the ways and mechanisms of the transformation of savings and investment, and focuses on the indirect transformation mechanism of finance, and studies the positive effect of the conversion rate of savings and investment on economic growth. The paper also proves that the conversion rate of savings and investment has a positive effect on economic growth, and then makes an empirical study on the impact of savings subsector on investment. In the end, some policy suggestions are given to improve the conversion rate of savings and investment and to promote economic growth. This article mainly uses the literature research and the empirical research two kinds of methods, first introduced the correlation theory foundation, and in the savings, the investment, the savings investment conversion rate, the economic growth and so on related concept carries on the definition foundation. This paper analyzes the transformation mechanism of savings and investment and the indirect financial transformation mechanism which needs to be studied in this paper. This paper mainly considers the conversion rate of savings and investment from the process of capital formation, not the process of capital allocation, applies the concept of social financing scale, and then introduces the traditional Solow model. The transformation rate of savings and investment is introduced into the traditional Solow model and its influence on per capita GDP per capita capital stock and consumption is analyzed. Using cointegration test, error correction model and VAR model, Granger causality test, empirical analysis of savings and investment conversion rate on economic growth to verify the previous theoretical research. The results show that the conversion rate of savings and investment will promote the economic growth of our country, and in the long run, it will have a very obvious promoting effect. After this, the paper carries on the empirical research to the savings subsector to the investment influence. Finally, it focuses on giving policy recommendations from the transformation mechanism of savings and investment, including indirect financing in capital markets and direct financing. This paper puts forward some policy suggestions to improve the conversion rate of savings and investment from the perspective of increasing departmental savings and promoting investment from the perspective of consumption-to-investment.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2017
【分類號(hào)】:F832.2

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