本文選題：金融危機 + 貨幣合作　； 參考：《江西財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：全球金融危機后,由于美國大量發(fā)行貨幣來拯救經(jīng)濟,使得美元持續(xù)貶值。美元大幅貶值導(dǎo)致各國持有的美元儲備嚴重縮水,這使得各國的經(jīng)濟受到了嚴重沖擊。要改變當(dāng)前局勢,國際上的首要選擇是讓歐元成為與美元并駕齊驅(qū)的貨幣。但是受歐債危機的影響,歐元也逐漸陷入危機,國際上轉(zhuǎn)而把目光聚焦在人民幣上,這與人民幣國際化戰(zhàn)略不謀而合。對于人民幣而言,人民幣國際化的首要任務(wù)是實現(xiàn)人民幣區(qū)域化,而人民幣區(qū)域化可以通過區(qū)域貨幣合作來實現(xiàn)。蒙代爾曾預(yù)言未來將會出現(xiàn)美元、亞元和歐元三個穩(wěn)定的貨幣區(qū)域,但是亞洲需要的是共同貨幣,而不是單一貨幣。因此,對中日韓貨幣合作的可行性研究具有現(xiàn)實意義。在此背景下,本文首先梳理了中日韓三國當(dāng)前已開展或?qū)⒁_展的貨幣合作項目,目前主要包括中日韓貨幣互換、東亞外匯儲備庫、中日韓自由貿(mào)易區(qū)和中日韓貨幣結(jié)算。其中貨幣互換和東亞外匯儲備庫已經(jīng)在運作當(dāng)中,而自由貿(mào)易區(qū)及貨幣結(jié)算正處在磋商階段。本文還發(fā)現(xiàn)中日韓貨幣合作存在著一些問題,如中日韓三國政治互信較低、中日韓三國未能擺脫對美國及美元的依賴、中日韓未能實現(xiàn)貨幣合作的獨立操作、中日韓三國貨幣沒有“領(lǐng)頭羊”,這些問題阻礙了中日韓貨幣合作往深層次發(fā)展。尤其是中日韓三國的政治問題,成為中日韓貨幣合作的最大“絆腳石”。在最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)理論的基礎(chǔ)上,本文用最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)理論中的5個指標作為一級指標,構(gòu)建了傳統(tǒng)最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)指標體系,運用這些指標下的二級指標分析了中日韓當(dāng)前貨幣合作的可能性與可操作性。通過分析發(fā)現(xiàn),有些指標已經(jīng)達到了貨幣合作的標準,這些指標包括產(chǎn)品多樣化、通脹一致性和金融一體化;而有些指標尚未達到標準,但是由于“內(nèi)生性”的作用,這些指標最終會趨于滿足貨幣合作的條件。因此,中日韓進行貨幣合作的可能性與可操作性較大。在潛在評價指標方面,本文增加了經(jīng)濟規(guī)模、貿(mào)易強度、相對貿(mào)易依存度、資本賬戶開放度、出口多樣化指數(shù)和利率相似性等指標。傳統(tǒng)指標與潛在指標共同構(gòu)成了當(dāng)前的評價體系,這是本文的一個創(chuàng)新點。文中引用評價體系中的產(chǎn)品多樣化、經(jīng)濟開放度、通脹一致性和金融一體化指標中的二級指標作為解釋變量,然后又增加了國家規(guī)模和產(chǎn)出增長率這兩個變量,從而構(gòu)建中日韓三國的最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)指數(shù)模型,并測算中日韓最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)指數(shù)。結(jié)果表明:中日韓三國的最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)指數(shù)整體數(shù)值較低,且中日雙邊最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)指數(shù)遠遠小于中韓、日韓的雙邊最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)指數(shù);另外,中日韓最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)指數(shù)與前歐元區(qū)的指數(shù)相比,差距不大。此外,兩次危機對中日韓三國合作的影響各有不同,亞洲金融危機使它們彼此間的貨幣合作機制得到了加強,雙邊最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)指數(shù)呈下降趨勢,但全球金融危機使得中日韓三國的雙邊最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)指數(shù)在近年來出現(xiàn)了小幅度上升現(xiàn)象。綜合來看,由于中日韓三國之間存在政治互信較低等問題,它們要想構(gòu)建穩(wěn)定的貨幣合作體系,仍需要三方共同努力。
[Abstract]:After the global financial crisis, the US dollar has been devalued by a large amount of currency to save the economy. A significant devaluation of the dollar has led to a severe contraction in the dollar reserves held by countries, which has made the economies of all countries suffer serious shocks. To change the current situation, the first choice is to make the euro a currency with the dollar. However, under the influence of the European debt crisis, the euro is also gradually falling into a crisis. The international strategy is focusing on the RMB, which coincides with the internationalization strategy of RMB. For RMB, the primary task of the RMB internationalization is to realize the regionalization of RMB, and the regionalization of RMB can be realized through regional monetary cooperation. I have predicted that there will be three stable currencies in US dollars, Asian dollars and euro, but Asia needs common currency rather than single currency. Therefore, it is of practical significance to study the feasibility of currency cooperation between China, Japan and Japan. In this context, this paper first combed the currency that China and Japan, Japan and South Korea have developed or will carry out. The cooperation projects mainly include the currency swap between China, Japan and Japan, the East Asian foreign exchange reserve, China Japan Japan Japan free trade area and the currency settlement of China Japan and South Korea. The question, such as the low political mutual trust between the three countries of China, Japan and South Korea, the three countries of China, Japan and South Korea fail to get rid of their dependence on the United States and the United States dollars. China, Japan and South Korea have failed to realize the independent operation of monetary cooperation. The three countries of China, Japan and South Korea have no "leader", which impede the deep development of the Sino ROK monetary cooperation. The biggest "stumbling block" of Japan and South Korea's monetary cooperation. On the basis of the optimal currency area theory, this paper constructs the traditional optimal monetary area index system by using 5 indexes in the optimal currency area theory, and analyzes the possibility and maneuverability of the current monetary cooperation between China, Japan and Korea by using the two level indexes under these indexes. It is found that some indicators have reached the standards of monetary cooperation, such as product diversification, inflation consistency and financial integration, and some indicators have not yet reached the standard, but because of the role of "endogenous", these indicators will eventually tend to meet the conditions of monetary cooperation. Therefore, the possibility of monetary cooperation between China and South Korea and Japan is possible. In terms of potential evaluation, in terms of potential evaluation indicators, this paper increases economic scale, trade intensity, relative trade dependence, capital account openness, export diversification index and interest rate similarity. The traditional index and potential index constitute the current evaluation system. This is an innovation point in this paper. The product diversification, the economic openness, the inflation consistency and the two levels of the financial integration index are the explanatory variables, and then the two variables of the country scale and the output growth rate are added, thus the optimal monetary area index model of the three countries of China, Japan and South Korea is constructed and the index of the optimal currency area of China, Japan and South Korea is calculated. The results show that: The overall value of the best currency area index of Japan and South Korea is low, and the bilateral optimal currency area index of China Japan and Japan is far smaller than that of China, Korea and Japan and South Korea. In addition, the gap between China, Japan and Japan's optimal currency area index is not large compared with the index of the former euro zone. In addition, the impact of the two crisis on the cooperation between China, Japan and Japan is different in Asia. The financial crisis has made the monetary cooperation mechanism between them strengthened and the index of the bilateral optimal currency area declined, but the global financial crisis made the bilateral optimal currency area index of the three countries of China, Japan, Japan, Japan and South Korea rise in a small margin in recent years. In a comprehensive view, there is a low political mutual trust between China, Japan and the ROK. If they want to build a stable monetary cooperation system, they still need three parties to work together.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F821

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 楊克斯;胡s，

本文編號：1870176