本文選題：人口老齡化 + 金融資產(chǎn)價(jià)格�。� 參考：《人口研究》2017年05期

【摘要】：文章對國內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)的回顧,建立了人口老齡化對金融資產(chǎn)價(jià)格作用的機(jī)理和路徑。利用中國1990~2015年歷史數(shù)據(jù)建立人口老齡化和金融資產(chǎn)價(jià)格之間關(guān)系的向量自回歸(Vector Autoregression,VAR)模型,實(shí)證分析結(jié)果表明人口老齡化對金融資產(chǎn)價(jià)格有穩(wěn)定的負(fù)向影響。從預(yù)測角度,脈沖分析結(jié)果進(jìn)一步證實(shí),如果對人口老齡化程度添加1個(gè)額外的正向沖擊,將對金融資產(chǎn)價(jià)格產(chǎn)生長期的負(fù)向影響。文章認(rèn)為中國人口老齡化在未來不會導(dǎo)致金融資產(chǎn)價(jià)格崩潰,但金融資產(chǎn)回報(bào)率的下降需要引起警惕,因?yàn)槲磥硗诵萑丝趯⒏嗟匾蕾噦�(gè)人儲蓄及資產(chǎn)回報(bào),而非傳統(tǒng)的退休金。文章對中國未來金融資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的下降趨勢提出預(yù)警,提出政府應(yīng)該前瞻性地從人口和金融兩方面加強(qiáng)宏觀管理,做出政策選擇。
[Abstract]:Based on a systematic review of relevant literature at home and abroad, this paper establishes the mechanism and path of the effect of population aging on the price of financial assets. Based on the historical data of China from 1990 to 2015, a vector autoregressive vector autoregressive (VARR) model for the relationship between population aging and financial asset prices is established. The empirical results show that population aging has a stable and negative impact on financial asset prices. From the perspective of prediction, the results of pulse analysis further confirm that if we add an additional positive shock to the degree of population aging, it will have a long-term negative impact on the price of financial assets. The article argues that China's aging population will not lead to a collapse in financial asset prices in the future, but a decline in the return on financial assets requires caution, as future retirees will rely more on personal savings and return on assets. Instead of a traditional pension. This paper gives an early warning of the downward trend of China's financial asset prices in the future, and suggests that the government should strengthen macro management and make policy choices from both the population and financial aspects.
【作者單位】： 首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)勞動經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;
【基金】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)重大科研項(xiàng)目與成果培育計(jì)劃“人口變動對資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的長期影響及預(yù)警機(jī)制研究”資助
【分類號】：C924.24;F832

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