本文選題：美國貨幣政策 + QE退出��； 參考：《學(xué)術(shù)探索》2017年01期

【摘要】：本文選取2008年9月至2015年10月的月度數(shù)據(jù),采用時(shí)變參數(shù)向量自回歸模型(TVP-VAR)的技術(shù)方法,從利率、匯率、貿(mào)易產(chǎn)出三個(gè)傳導(dǎo)渠道研究了金融危機(jī)之后美國貨幣政策調(diào)整對(duì)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的溢出效應(yīng)。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)貨幣政策對(duì)中國的產(chǎn)出、利率、匯率以及進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易均存在溢出效應(yīng),且溢出效應(yīng)在不同政策階段下存在顯著差異。基于此,本文提出了加快經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、推進(jìn)人民幣國際化進(jìn)程、促進(jìn)金融體系改革等政策建議,以穩(wěn)定國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境,提升國家抵御外部金融沖擊的能力。
[Abstract]:This paper selects the monthly data from September 2008 to October 2015, adopts the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model (TVP-VARA), from interest rate, exchange rate, Three transmission channels of trade output studied the spillover effect of American monetary policy adjustment on Chinese economy after the financial crisis. The empirical results show that there are spillover effects of Fed monetary policy on China's output, interest rate, exchange rate and import and export trade, and there are significant differences in spillover effects in different policy stages. Based on this, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions, such as speeding up economic transformation and industrial structure adjustment, promoting the process of RMB internationalization and promoting the reform of financial system, so as to stabilize the domestic economic environment and enhance the ability of the country to resist external financial shocks.
【作者單位】： 武漢大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理學(xué)院;
【分類號(hào)】：F827.12;F124
，

本文編號(hào)：1774287