本文選題：跨境資本流動(dòng)　切入點(diǎn)：匯率　出處：《中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)》2017年04期

【摘要】：筆者基于37個(gè)新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家數(shù)據(jù),通過(guò)構(gòu)建靜態(tài)、動(dòng)態(tài)面板模型,實(shí)證考察了跨境資本流動(dòng)的內(nèi)外部驅(qū)動(dòng)因素。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明,資本項(xiàng)目開(kāi)放在短期和長(zhǎng)期資本流動(dòng)中分別起到重要但不同的作用;外部國(guó)際貨幣政策調(diào)整、外部流動(dòng)性條件始終是跨境資本流動(dòng)的顯著決定因素;新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家基本面僅在長(zhǎng)期跨境資本流動(dòng)中表現(xiàn)出顯著的影響力;隨著新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家匯率機(jī)制總體上趨向彈性,匯率調(diào)整在跨境資本流動(dòng)中的作用并不重要。我國(guó)的實(shí)證結(jié)果與新興市場(chǎng)的相關(guān)結(jié)論總體上是一致的,但也有部分差異,主要原因是我國(guó)在匯率與資本項(xiàng)目開(kāi)放上的自身特點(diǎn)使得相關(guān)結(jié)論表現(xiàn)出一定的"中國(guó)特色"。從新興市場(chǎng)跨境資本流動(dòng)驅(qū)動(dòng)因素的歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn)與實(shí)證結(jié)果來(lái)看,我國(guó)在匯率與資本項(xiàng)目制定安排上,未來(lái)應(yīng)當(dāng)構(gòu)建更具彈性的人民幣匯率形成機(jī)制,引導(dǎo)人民幣匯率有序調(diào)整,對(duì)短期跨境資本項(xiàng)目開(kāi)放更加審慎,由此形成保持國(guó)內(nèi)貨幣政策獨(dú)立性、人民幣匯率漸進(jìn)有序貶值與資本項(xiàng)目開(kāi)放審慎的政策格局。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of 37 emerging market countries, the author empirically examines the internal and external drivers of cross-border capital flows through the construction of static and dynamic panel models.The empirical results show that the opening of capital account plays an important but different role in the short-term and long-term capital flows, the adjustment of external international monetary policy and the external liquidity conditions are the significant determinants of cross-border capital flows.The fundamentals of emerging market countries only show significant influence in long-term cross-border capital flows. As the exchange rate regime of emerging market countries generally tends to be flexible, the role of exchange rate adjustment in cross-border capital flows is not important.The empirical results of our country are consistent with the relevant conclusions of emerging markets in general, but there are also some differences. The main reason is that our own characteristics in the opening of exchange rate and capital account make the relevant conclusions show certain "Chinese characteristics".From the historical experience and empirical results of the driving factors of cross-border capital flows in emerging markets, we should construct a more flexible mechanism of RMB exchange rate formation and guide the orderly adjustment of RMB exchange rate in the future.The opening of short-term cross-border capital account is more prudent, which leads to the policy pattern of maintaining the independence of domestic monetary policy, the gradual and orderly depreciation of RMB exchange rate and the prudent opening of capital account.
【作者單位】： 中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;中國(guó)石油規(guī)劃總院;中國(guó)人民大學(xué)國(guó)際貨幣研究所;中國(guó)工商銀行總行投資銀行部研究中心;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金青年項(xiàng)目“資本項(xiàng)目開(kāi)放、人民幣匯率及其預(yù)期波動(dòng)與資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格穩(wěn)定”(項(xiàng)目編號(hào):71303254)
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6

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