匯率變化、貿(mào)易服務(wù)與中國(guó)企業(yè)對(duì)外直接投資
本文選題:匯率變化 切入點(diǎn):貿(mào)易服務(wù) 出處:《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)》2017年11期
【摘要】:本文研究匯率變化對(duì)異質(zhì)性出口企業(yè)對(duì)外直接投資的影響及機(jī)制,尤其是對(duì)貿(mào)易服務(wù)型投資的"出口傳導(dǎo)"效應(yīng)。以往研究只關(guān)注匯率對(duì)制造業(yè)投資的"出口替代"影響,忽略了出口與貿(mào)易服務(wù)型投資的"互補(bǔ)關(guān)系"。本文從理論和經(jīng)驗(yàn)分析兩方面考察了匯率對(duì)貿(mào)易服務(wù)型投資的影響,在理論方面拓展了異質(zhì)性企業(yè)對(duì)外直接投資模型,而經(jīng)驗(yàn)分析方面基于2000-2008年的微觀企業(yè)樣本,處理了內(nèi)生性和稀有事件等問(wèn)題。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)當(dāng)匯率上升10%時(shí),貿(mào)易服務(wù)型投資概率將上升4.3%,這一結(jié)果對(duì)不同計(jì)量方法都穩(wěn)健。
[Abstract]:This paper studies the influence and mechanism of exchange rate change on foreign direct investment (FDI) of heterogeneous export enterprises, especially the "export conduction" effect on trade service-oriented investment. In the past, we only focused on the "export substitution" effect of exchange rate on manufacturing investment. The "complementary relationship" between export and trade service investment is neglected. This paper investigates the influence of exchange rate on trade service investment from the aspects of theory and experience, and extends the foreign direct investment model of heterogeneous enterprises in theory. The empirical analysis based on the samples of microenterprises from 2000 to 2008 deals with endogenous and rare events. It is found that when the exchange rate rises by 10%, the probability of trade service investment will rise by 4.3%, which is robust to different measurement methods.
【作者單位】: 對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)國(guó)際經(jīng)貿(mào)學(xué)院;北京大學(xué)國(guó)家發(fā)展研究院;
【基金】:國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金青年項(xiàng)目課題“匯率波動(dòng),出口傳導(dǎo)和異質(zhì)性企業(yè)對(duì)外直接投資”(71503043) 對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)青年課題“人民幣、企業(yè)生產(chǎn)率與對(duì)外直接投資”(14QN02) 國(guó)家杰出青年項(xiàng)目基金(71625007)的資助
【分類號(hào)】:F125;F279.2;F752.68;F832.6
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