本文選題：美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)　切入點(diǎn)：貨幣政策　出處：《中國工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)》2017年01期

【摘要】：近年來,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)貨幣政策在典型和非典型政策之間頻繁切換,這種"異質(zhì)性"對(duì)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生了動(dòng)態(tài)影響,導(dǎo)致常參數(shù)模型所刻畫的溢出效應(yīng)缺乏實(shí)際的經(jīng)濟(jì)意義。為此,本文構(gòu)建了帶有隨機(jī)波動(dòng)率的時(shí)變參數(shù)因子擴(kuò)展向量自回歸模型,從宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)、私人經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融市場(chǎng)三個(gè)角度來研究美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)貨幣政策沖擊對(duì)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)造成的動(dòng)態(tài)影響的表現(xiàn)形式及背后的機(jī)理。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),動(dòng)態(tài)影響體現(xiàn)在:一方面,不同時(shí)期美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的緊縮性貨幣政策和量化寬松貨幣政策都對(duì)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生了負(fù)向影響,意味著不同時(shí)期的同向貨幣政策會(huì)對(duì)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生反向影響;另一方面,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)貨幣政策對(duì)中國宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)、金融市場(chǎng)、私人經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響在時(shí)間維度上分別呈現(xiàn)遞減、遞增、平滑現(xiàn)象。動(dòng)態(tài)影響的根源在于不同時(shí)期傳導(dǎo)機(jī)理的差異。在固定匯率下,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)通過影響中美利差作用于中國的資本與金融賬戶,進(jìn)而影響中國經(jīng)濟(jì);在浮動(dòng)匯率下,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)通過干擾人民幣與美元匯率來影響中國的經(jīng)常賬戶,進(jìn)而影響中國經(jīng)濟(jì)。因此,建議中國人民銀行縮小人民幣匯率浮動(dòng)空間,結(jié)合數(shù)量型量化寬松貨幣政策,來應(yīng)對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的緊縮性貨幣政策;建議寬松財(cái)政政策與緊縮貨幣政策并行以及縮減美元在貨幣籃子中的權(quán)重,來應(yīng)對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的量化寬松貨幣政策。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve has frequently switched between typical and atypical policies. This "heterogeneity" has a dynamic impact on the Chinese economy, leading to the lack of practical economic significance in the spillover effects described by the constant parameter model. In this paper, an extended vector autoregressive model of time-varying parameter factors with random volatility is constructed. From the perspective of private economy and financial market, this paper studies the manifestation and mechanism behind the dynamic impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shock on China's economy. The study finds that the dynamic impact is reflected in: on the one hand, The contractionary monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and the monetary policy of quantitative easing have both had a negative impact on the Chinese economy in different periods, which means that the codirectional monetary policy in different periods will have a negative impact on the Chinese economy; on the other hand, The influence of the Federal Reserve monetary policy on China's macro economy, financial market and private economy is decreasing, increasing and smoothing in time dimension. The root of the dynamic influence lies in the difference of conduction mechanism in different periods. The Federal Reserve affects the Chinese economy by influencing the capital and financial accounts of China over the spread of interest rates between China and the United States, and by interfering with the exchange rate of the renminbi and the dollar to influence China's current account under the floating exchange rate. Therefore, the people's Bank of China should reduce the floating space of RMB exchange rate, combine quantitative quantitative easing monetary policy to deal with the Federal Reserve's tight monetary policy; It is recommended that loose fiscal policy go hand in hand with tighter monetary policy and reduce the dollar's weight in the basket to deal with the Fed's quantitative easing policy.
【作者單位】： 吉林大學(xué)數(shù)量經(jīng)濟(jì)研究中心;Business
【基金】：吉林省科技發(fā)展計(jì)劃軟科學(xué)研究項(xiàng)目“吉林省現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)培育和發(fā)展研究基礎(chǔ)”(批準(zhǔn)號(hào)20130420035FG)
【分類號(hào)】：F837.12

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 闕方平,李明理;論金融監(jiān)管對(duì)貨幣政策的支撐與抑制[J];財(cái)貿(mào)經(jīng)濟(jì);2000年07期

2 喬清彥;論我國貨幣政策工具的選擇及對(duì)策[J];工業(yè)技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì);2000年01期

3 郭中海,李利英;制約我國貨幣政策的因素及對(duì)策建議[J];金融理論與實(shí)踐;2000年02期

4 王自力;論改革與發(fā)展中的有效貨幣政策[J];南方經(jīng)濟(jì);2000年11期

5 王明津;用鄧小平的金融觀點(diǎn)看我國目前的貨幣政策[J];上海金融;2000年05期

6 王錦煜,徐宏;實(shí)施貨幣政策央行基層行大有可為[J];上海金融;2000年07期

7 戴相龍;繼續(xù)實(shí)行穩(wěn)健的貨幣政策[J];中國金融;2000年10期

8 陳永明;推行區(qū)域貨幣政策是實(shí)施西北大開發(fā)戰(zhàn)略的現(xiàn)實(shí)選擇[J];甘肅金融;2000年05期

9 ;繼續(xù)執(zhí)行穩(wěn)健的貨幣政策[J];黑龍江金融;2000年08期

10 陳炳才;對(duì)我國貨幣政策一些問題的思考[J];海南金融;2000年08期

相關(guān)會(huì)議論文 前10條

1 張帥;徐長生;;貨幣狀況指數(shù):我國貨幣政策的信息指示器[A];2009年全國博士生學(xué)術(shù)會(huì)議論文集[C];2009年

2 高珂;時(shí)光;;2008年我國貨幣政策出現(xiàn)倒‘V’型轉(zhuǎn)變?cè)驕\析[A];中國會(huì)計(jì)學(xué)會(huì)審計(jì)專業(yè)委員會(huì)2010年學(xué)術(shù)年會(huì)論文集[C];2010年

3 許晉波;;新時(shí)期我國的貨幣政策[A];論中國式的社會(huì)主義現(xiàn)代化[C];2002年

4 徐洪才;;2012年貨幣政策及金融改革展望[A];中國經(jīng)濟(jì)年會(huì)（2011-2012）會(huì)刊[C];2012年

5 李，

本文編號(hào)：1666902