本文選題：資本流動　切入點(diǎn)：直接投資　出處：《深圳大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著近年來中國對全球金融一體化的程度加深,國際地緣政治緊張局勢加強(qiáng),封閉主義和貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義抬頭的可能性增強(qiáng),全球金融環(huán)境收緊大于預(yù)期、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長上行風(fēng)險加大等一系列的國際環(huán)境形成的外部風(fēng)險,加上中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩幅度加大的內(nèi)部風(fēng)險,都不斷地沖擊著中國這個還沒有完全開放資本市場、但卻有著全球領(lǐng)先經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率的經(jīng)濟(jì)體。2016年末,中國資本市場開通"深港通"股票市場互聯(lián)互通機(jī)制,繼"滬港通"后又一個連接內(nèi)地股票市場和香港股票市場的金融創(chuàng)新,在資本更加深度融合的步調(diào)下,國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨增速下滑,急需突破結(jié)構(gòu)增長引擎轉(zhuǎn)變的發(fā)展瓶頸,對中國資本流動的管理任務(wù)變得更加重要。在過去的歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn)中,我們可以看到很多在發(fā)展資本市場道路上成功以及失敗的例子。面對當(dāng)前國際經(jīng)濟(jì)金融形勢新局面,中國如何在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長動力下滑的今天處理對資本項(xiàng)目下資本流動的管理?本文通過研究2005年三季度至2016年三季度,即人民幣匯率改革以來的金融項(xiàng)目資本流動情況,分析金融項(xiàng)目資本凈流動和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的短期關(guān)系,用向量自回歸(VAR)模型對資本項(xiàng)下的資本流動與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的影響關(guān)系進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,提出對中國資本項(xiàng)目下資本流動管理的政策建議。實(shí)證研究中發(fā)現(xiàn),資本凈流入中國可以提高經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率,而資本項(xiàng)目下的直接投資和其他投資資本流動對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長有正向效應(yīng),影響程度較小,證券投資資本流動對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長有負(fù)效應(yīng),影響程度較大。通過結(jié)合理論和實(shí)證分析,本文認(rèn)為在當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)改革和經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩時期,中國應(yīng)該攻堅(jiān)克難渡過轉(zhuǎn)型陣痛期,調(diào)整經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展結(jié)構(gòu)模式,堅(jiān)持改革開放,便利跨境貿(mào)易投資,更好地服務(wù)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì),防范跨境資本流動風(fēng)險,維護(hù)外匯市場穩(wěn)定,摒棄快速追求資本項(xiàng)目開放的舊思想,有秩序有條理地逐漸放開資本項(xiàng)目下的資本流動管制,進(jìn)一步加大對資本市場違法違規(guī)行為的查處和懲罰力度,同時完善國內(nèi)金融市場制度建設(shè),吸收國外資本項(xiàng)目發(fā)展寶貴經(jīng)驗(yàn),建立宏觀審慎管理體制,想方設(shè)法促改革穩(wěn)增長,防止出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速下降情況下的資本流動沖擊帶來的金融危機(jī)甚至是經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)。
[Abstract]:As China's degree of global financial integration has deepened in recent years, international geopolitical tensions have intensified, the likelihood of a rise in closures and trade protectionism has increased, and the global financial environment has tightened more than expected. A series of external risks formed by the international environment, such as increased upward risks of economic growth, coupled with the increased internal risks of China's economic growth slowdown, are constantly hitting China, um, which has not yet fully opened up its capital market. In end of 2016, China's capital market opened the "Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect" stock market connectivity mechanism, and a financial innovation linking the mainland stock market and the Hong Kong stock market after the "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect". At the pace of deeper integration of capital, the domestic economy is facing a decline in growth, and the need to break through the development bottleneck of structural growth engine transformation has become even more important to the management of capital flows in China. We can see many examples of success and failure on the road of developing capital market. In the face of the new international economic and financial situation, how can China handle the management of capital flows under the capital account at a time when the economic growth power is declining? This paper analyzes the short-term relationship between net capital flow of financial account and economic growth by studying the financial account capital flow from the third quarter of 2005 to the third quarter of 2016, that is, since the reform of RMB exchange rate. This paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between capital flows and economic growth by using vector autoregressive (VAR) model, and puts forward some policy recommendations on capital flow management under capital account in China. The net inflow of capital into China can increase the economic growth rate, while the direct investment and other investment capital flows under the capital account have a positive effect on the economic growth, and the degree of influence is relatively small, and the portfolio investment capital flow has a negative effect on the economic growth. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper holds that in the current period of economic structural reform and economic growth slowdown, China should overcome the difficulties of the transition period, adjust the structural model of economic development, and adhere to the reform and opening up. To facilitate cross-border trade and investment, better serve the real economy, guard against risks of cross-border capital flows, maintain stability in the foreign exchange market, and abandon the old idea of fast opening up capital accounts, We will gradually liberalize capital flow controls under capital accounts in an orderly and orderly manner, further increase the investigation and punishment of illegal and illegal acts in the capital market, and at the same time improve the construction of domestic financial market systems. We should absorb the valuable experience of foreign capital account development, establish macroprudential management system, try every means to promote reform and steady growth, and prevent the financial crisis or even economic crisis caused by the impact of capital flow under the condition of declining economic growth.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：深圳大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.6

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