本文關鍵詞： 證券分析師 盈余預測誤差 經營業(yè)績 盈余管理　出處：《天津商業(yè)大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：近年來,伴隨我國證券市場的發(fā)展,我國證券分析師也得到了壯大,作為證券分析師發(fā)揮作用的手段,他們所做的盈余預測報告也越來越多,同時由于信息需求增加和受制于能力渠道等因素等造成的信息不對稱,投資者對分析師的盈余預測報告有了越來越多的關注,可以說證券分析師的盈余預測數據將在很大程度上會影響投資者的價值判斷,為了更好的促進我國證券分析師盈余預測的準確度,從而更好的為市場服務,本文運用文獻研究法和實證研究的方法,對我國證券分析師盈余預測的誤差進行了分析,經過理論分析和論證后,就有關結論有針對性地提出對減小我國證券分析師預測誤差的對策建議,從而,幫助廣大投資者更加理性地利用分析師的盈余預測報告,為我國證券市場有序健康發(fā)展提供方向。本文主要分為五部分進行研究。首先第一部分在談論有關背景后提出了本文研究的問題和方向,在越來越受國家和投資者重視的情況下,我們需要對分析師盈余預測誤差的情況進行更好的解讀和分析,在通過對報告盈余的構成進行分析后,我們提出了本文的研究方向,探討經營業(yè)績和盈余管理在不同的水平程度下,對分析師盈余預測誤差的影響,更進一步試圖研究兩者哪個對誤差影響更大及有關盈余預測誤差修正的情況。第二部分本文主要論述了盈余預測的三大理論基礎,同時對已有的國內外文獻進行了整理和詳細的闡述以及對本文的啟示。第三部分,在一定的理論分析基礎和推導后,提出了本文的四個假設,并選取了有關變量,進行了模型設計和數據收集選取等工作。第四部分是描述性統(tǒng)計和實證分析,詳細解讀了本文實證結果和對此的分析,以及是否符合預期假設等。第五部分,就實證分析結果進行了總結,并以此為基礎提出了一些有助于我國證券分析師盈余預測誤差較小的三個建議,同時補充了本文可能的不足和以后的研究方向。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the development of China's securities market, China's securities analysts have also gained strength. As a means for securities analysts to play a role, they have also made more and more earnings forecast reports. At the same time, due to the information asymmetry caused by the increasing demand for information and being constrained by capacity channels, investors are paying more and more attention to the earnings forecast report of analysts. It can be said that the earnings forecast data of securities analysts will to a large extent affect the value judgment of investors. In order to better promote the accuracy of earnings forecast of securities analysts in China and serve the market better, This paper analyzes the error of earnings forecast of securities analysts in China by using the method of literature research and empirical research, after theoretical analysis and demonstration, On the basis of the relevant conclusions, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to reduce the forecast error of China's securities analysts, so as to help the majority of investors to make more rational use of the earnings forecast report of the analysts. This paper is divided into five parts to study. Firstly, after discussing the relevant background, the paper puts forward the problems and directions of this paper. Under the condition that the country and investors pay more and more attention to the situation, we need to better interpret and analyze the error of analyst earnings forecast. After analyzing the composition of the report surplus, we put forward the research direction of this paper. This paper discusses the influence of operating performance and earnings management on analysts' earnings forecast errors in different levels. The second part of this paper mainly discusses the three theoretical bases of earnings forecasting. At the same time, the existing literature at home and abroad are summarized and elaborated in detail, as well as the enlightenment to this paper. The third part, after a certain theoretical analysis and derivation, puts forward the four hypotheses of this paper, and selects the relevant variables. The 4th part is descriptive statistics and empirical analysis, explains the empirical results and analysis of this paper in detail, as well as whether the expected assumptions and so on. 5th, and so on. This paper summarizes the results of empirical analysis and puts forward three suggestions on the basis of which some suggestions are put forward which are helpful to reduce the error of earnings forecast of securities analysts in China. At the same time, it complements the possible shortcomings of this paper and the future research direction.
【學位授予單位】：天津商業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F275;F832.51

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