本文關(guān)鍵詞：多種貨幣結(jié)算制度下津巴布韋通貨膨脹率的影響因素研究　出處：《首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：津巴布韋曾于2007-2008年間經(jīng)歷了嚴(yán)重的惡性通貨膨脹,最高時(shí)期單月通貨膨脹率高達(dá)200,000%。之后自2008年8月起,津巴布韋央行進(jìn)行了貨幣制度改革,包括廢除舊津巴布韋元的使用,以及啟動(dòng)多種貨幣結(jié)算制度:其中包括美元、南非蘭特、歐元、人民幣、和博茨瓦納貨幣普拉等成為了其日常的主要結(jié)算貨幣。貨幣制度改革后,津巴布韋宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)有所好轉(zhuǎn),物價(jià)趨于穩(wěn)定,但仍存在一定的通貨膨脹現(xiàn)象,年化通脹率在3%左右。本文基于2009-2015年津巴布韋的月度數(shù)據(jù),建立了協(xié)整模型討論多種貨幣結(jié)算制度下津巴布韋通貨膨脹率的影響因素,以期為其政府相關(guān)部門(mén)特別是央行的貨幣政策提供政策參考。我們的協(xié)整模型表明,貨幣供應(yīng)總量,匯率,利率和進(jìn)口量是貨幣體制改革后津巴布韋通貨膨脹率的主要影響因素。鑒于其中匯率是典型的外生變量,與津巴布韋相關(guān)貨幣政策的走向無(wú)關(guān),我們建議津巴布韋央行應(yīng)主要關(guān)注其他三個(gè)變量。特別的,在美元升值時(shí),津巴布韋央行宜盡量控制進(jìn)口商品數(shù)量,以避免通脹風(fēng)險(xiǎn);而美元貶值時(shí),津巴布韋政府宜通過(guò)影響利率而避免通縮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。綜合考慮,從長(zhǎng)期物價(jià)穩(wěn)定的角度來(lái)看,津巴布韋央行仍需選擇適當(dāng)時(shí)機(jī),退出多貨幣結(jié)算體制,并重新印發(fā)本國(guó)貨幣,從而可以通過(guò)靈活調(diào)整貨幣供應(yīng)總量穩(wěn)定物價(jià)。
[Abstract]:Zimbabwe experienced severe hyperinflation in 2007-2008, with a monthly high of 200, 000 per month at its peak. Since August 2008, Zimbabwe has experienced severe hyperinflation. Zimbabwe's central bank has reformed its monetary system, including abolishing the use of the old Zimbabwean dollar and launching a multi-currency settlement system, including the dollar, the South African rand, the euro and the renminbi. After the reform of monetary system, the macro-economy of Zimbabwe has improved, prices tend to stabilize, but there is still a certain inflation phenomenon. The annualized inflation rate is about 3%. Based on the monthly data of Zimbabwe from 2009 to 2015, a cointegration model is established to discuss the influencing factors of Zimbabwe's inflation rate under various currency settlement systems. In order to provide policy reference for the relevant government departments, especially the central bank monetary policy. Our cointegration model shows that the total amount of money supply, exchange rate. Interest rate and import volume are the main influencing factors of Zimbabwe's inflation rate after the reform of monetary system. Since the exchange rate is a typical exogenous variable, it has nothing to do with the trend of Zimbabwe's monetary policy. We suggest that Zimbabwe's central bank should focus on the other three variables. In particular, when the dollar is rising, Zimbabwe's central bank should try to control the number of imports to avoid inflation risks. When the dollar depreciates, the Zimbabwean government should avoid the risk of deflation by influencing interest rates. Considering the long-term price stability, Zimbabwe's central bank still needs to choose the right time. By withdrawing from the multi-currency settlement system and reissuing the local currency, the price can be stabilized by flexible adjustment of the total amount of money supply.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F822.5
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本文編號(hào)：1410124