本文關(guān)鍵詞：人民幣匯率變動、鄰國匯率效應(yīng)與雙邊貿(mào)易——基于中國與東南亞五國SVAR模型的經(jīng)驗研究　出處：《國際貿(mào)易問題》2017年11期 　論文類型：期刊論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： SVAR模型 人民幣匯率變動 鄰國匯率效應(yīng) 雙邊貿(mào)易

【摘要】：本文將鄰國匯率效應(yīng)納入傳統(tǒng)的匯率變動影響雙邊貿(mào)易的研究框架,通過構(gòu)建結(jié)構(gòu)性向量自回歸(SVAR)模型,分析了中國同東南亞五國雙邊匯率和鄰國匯率變動(水平變化和波動幅度兩個層面)對雙邊貿(mào)易的影響。研究結(jié)果表明:中國同東南亞五國雙邊進口和出口貿(mào)易受雙邊匯率和鄰國匯率的水平變化影響較小,但受其波動幅度影響較大;雙邊匯率的波動(幅度)對中國同東南亞五國的雙邊貿(mào)易具有正向影響。鄰國匯率波動對中國與各國雙邊貿(mào)易的影響存在顯著不同,其中泰國與中國的雙邊匯率波動對中國同馬來西亞的雙邊貿(mào)易,菲律賓與中國的雙邊匯率波動對中國同印度尼西亞的雙邊貿(mào)易均具有正向影響,而馬來西亞與中國的雙邊匯率波動對中國同菲律賓、新加坡和泰國的雙邊貿(mào)易均具有負向影響;進一步分行業(yè)研究,發(fā)現(xiàn)中國同東南亞五國大部分行業(yè)的雙邊貿(mào)易同樣存在顯著的鄰國匯率效應(yīng),與整體層面的研究結(jié)論基本一致。針對以上結(jié)論,從中國同東南亞五國之間的匯率聯(lián)動性、廠商競爭地位、金融市場發(fā)育程度等多方面對結(jié)論做了解釋,并結(jié)合"一帶一路"倡議背景得到了許多政策啟示。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the exchange rate effect of neighboring countries is incorporated into the traditional research framework of the influence of exchange rate changes on bilateral trade, and a structural vector autoregressive SVARmodel is constructed. This paper analyzes the changes in the exchange rate between China and the five Southeast Asian countries and the exchange rate of neighboring countries (level change and fluctuation range). The results show that the bilateral import and export trade between China and the five Southeast Asian countries is less affected by the changes of the bilateral exchange rate and the exchange rate of the neighboring countries. But it is influenced greatly by its fluctuation range. The fluctuation (range) of bilateral exchange rate has a positive effect on the bilateral trade between China and the five Southeast Asian countries, while the influence of the exchange rate fluctuation of neighboring countries on the bilateral trade between China and other countries is obviously different. The fluctuation of the bilateral exchange rate between Thailand and China has a positive impact on the bilateral trade between China and Malaysia, and the fluctuation of the bilateral exchange rate between the Philippines and China has a positive impact on the bilateral trade between China and Indonesia. The fluctuation of the exchange rate between Malaysia and China has a negative impact on the bilateral trade between China and the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Further sub-industry research found that the bilateral trade between China and the five Southeast Asian countries also has significant exchange rate effect in neighbouring countries, which is basically consistent with the conclusion of the overall level. The conclusion is explained from the exchange rate linkage between China and the five Southeast Asian countries, the competitive position of the firms, the degree of financial market development and so on, and a lot of policy revelations are obtained from the background of the "Belt and Road" initiative.
【作者單位】： 浙江工商大學(xué)金融學(xué)院;浙江工商大學(xué)應(yīng)用經(jīng)濟學(xué)研究基地;
【基金】：國家社科基金青年項目“人民幣匯率變動和鄰國效應(yīng)對中國與‘一帶一路’沿線國家雙邊貿(mào)易的影響研究”(16CJY078) 教育部人文社科規(guī)劃項目“匯率傳遞的省際效應(yīng)和區(qū)域特征”(15YJA790002) 浙江省自然科學(xué)基金一般項目“‘新常態(tài)’下人民幣匯率傳遞效應(yīng)及其影響因素研究:基于省際視角”(LY17G030007)
【分類號】：F746;F831.6
【正文快照】： 引言匯率變動與國際貿(mào)易的關(guān)系一直是國際經(jīng)濟學(xué)領(lǐng)域十分重要的研究主題。自2005年7月人民幣匯率改革以來,有關(guān)人民幣匯率變動對中國進出口貿(mào)易(特別是雙邊貿(mào)易)影響的文獻十分豐富。從2014年初開始,人民幣兌美元匯率中間價一改長期單邊升值預(yù)期,進入雙向波動“新常態(tài)”,特別

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