【摘要】：2008年金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)后,全球商品貿(mào)易減速促使新的貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義再度興起,國(guó)與國(guó)之間的貿(mào)易摩擦日益加劇。此輪貿(mào)易保護(hù),中國(guó)成為各國(guó)發(fā)動(dòng)貿(mào)易保護(hù)的主要目標(biāo)國(guó)。印度作為此輪貿(mào)易保護(hù)對(duì)中國(guó)采取貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施最多的國(guó)家,其保護(hù)政策無論對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)還是貿(mào)易所產(chǎn)生的負(fù)面效應(yīng)都是不容忽視的。然而由于數(shù)據(jù)獲取和實(shí)證方法選擇上等方面的困難,實(shí)證研究金融危機(jī)以來印度各種貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施對(duì)中國(guó)貿(mào)易影響的文獻(xiàn)相當(dāng)缺乏�；诖�,本文利用全球貿(mào)易預(yù)警組織(GTA)數(shù)據(jù)庫,在對(duì)2008年11月以來印度對(duì)華實(shí)施的貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)性描述基礎(chǔ)上,利用動(dòng)態(tài)差分GMM方法實(shí)證分析了其對(duì)中國(guó)出口的影響。統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)表明,中國(guó)遭受印度實(shí)施的貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施數(shù)量呈波動(dòng)增長(zhǎng)狀態(tài),其中黃色措施近些年也有增長(zhǎng)的趨勢(shì),表明中國(guó)未來遭受印度實(shí)施的貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義的威脅還將增加。從措施類型看,貿(mào)易救濟(jì)措施、當(dāng)?shù)睾恳�、貿(mào)易融資是印度對(duì)中國(guó)實(shí)施歧視性貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施的主要方式,但非傳統(tǒng)貿(mào)易保護(hù)形式也占據(jù)了危機(jī)時(shí)期保護(hù)主義的大部分,表明印度對(duì)中國(guó)實(shí)施貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施具有多樣性的特點(diǎn)。從影響行業(yè)來看,印度實(shí)施貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施主要是保護(hù)本國(guó)傳統(tǒng)、勞動(dòng)密集型行業(yè),如化學(xué)產(chǎn)品、專用機(jī)械、賤金屬、通用機(jī)械等行業(yè)。同時(shí),農(nóng)產(chǎn)品行業(yè)作為國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的基礎(chǔ)也成為較大受害部門。利用HS4位數(shù)編碼商品月度出口數(shù)據(jù)的實(shí)證結(jié)果表明:印度對(duì)中國(guó)實(shí)施貿(mào)易保護(hù)給中國(guó)出口造成顯著沖擊。眾多措施中,貿(mào)易救濟(jì)措施被采取次數(shù)最多,其次是當(dāng)?shù)睾恳?這些措施的實(shí)施也對(duì)中國(guó)相關(guān)商品的出口產(chǎn)生顯著的負(fù)面影響。值得注意的是,非關(guān)稅壁壘(未另做詳細(xì)說明)盡管被實(shí)施次數(shù)較少,但對(duì)中國(guó)出口貿(mào)易造成損失最大,該措施的實(shí)施會(huì)使中國(guó)受影響行業(yè)出口額下降56.59%。救助/國(guó)家援助、出口激勵(lì)等間接影響措施對(duì)我國(guó)出口的沖擊也不容忽視。貿(mào)易融資實(shí)施的頻率較高,但并未對(duì)中國(guó)相關(guān)產(chǎn)品的出口造成實(shí)質(zhì)性傷害。印度對(duì)中國(guó)實(shí)施的歧視性貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施對(duì)中國(guó)運(yùn)輸工具、農(nóng)產(chǎn)品、礦產(chǎn)品、紡織品等行業(yè)的影響較大且顯著,阻礙了中國(guó)相關(guān)產(chǎn)品的出口。針對(duì)加工食品品和木制品行業(yè)實(shí)施的貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施數(shù)量較少,影響系數(shù)為負(fù),但統(tǒng)計(jì)上并不顯著。最后,我們?cè)趯?shí)證結(jié)果的基礎(chǔ)上得出幾點(diǎn)啟示,以期更好應(yīng)對(duì)印度貿(mào)易保護(hù)。
[Abstract]:After the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the slowdown in global commodity trade prompted the resurgence of new trade protectionism, and the trade frictions between countries are becoming more and more serious. In this round of trade protection, China has become the main target country for all countries to launch trade protection. India, as the country that has taken the most trade protection measures to China in this round of trade protection, the negative effects of its protection policy on China's economy and trade can not be ignored. However, due to the difficulties of data acquisition and the choice of empirical methods, there is a lack of literature on the impact of various trade protection measures in India on China's trade since the financial crisis. Based on this, this paper uses the Global Trade early warning Organization (GTA) database to describe the trade protection measures implemented by India to China since November 2008. The influence of dynamic differential GMM method on China's export is analyzed empirically. Statistics show that the number of trade protection measures imposed by India is fluctuating and growing, and yellow measures have also shown an upward trend in recent years, indicating that the threat of trade protectionism imposed by India will increase in the future. From the point of view of the type of measures, trade relief measures, local content requirements and trade financing are the main ways for India to implement discriminatory trade protection measures against China, but non-traditional forms of trade protection also occupy most of the protectionism during the crisis. It shows that India's trade protection measures against China have the characteristics of diversity. From the perspective of the impact industry, India mainly implements trade protection measures to protect its own tradition, labor-intensive industries, such as chemical products, special machinery, base metals, general machinery and other industries. At the same time, the agricultural industry as the basis of the national economy has also become a greater victim sector. The empirical results of monthly export data encoded by HS4 digits show that India's trade protection against China has a significant impact on China's exports. Among the many measures, trade relief measures have been adopted the most frequently, followed by local content requirements, and the implementation of these measures has also had a significant negative impact on the export of related goods in China. It is worth noting that although non-tariff barriers (not otherwise detailed) have been implemented less often, they have caused the greatest damage to China's export trade, and the implementation of this measure will reduce the export volume of China's affected industries by 56.59 percent. The impact of indirect measures such as rescue / state aid and export incentive on China's export can not be ignored. Trade finance is implemented frequently, but it does not cause substantial damage to the export of related products in China. India's discriminatory trade protection measures against China have a great and significant impact on China's transport, agricultural products, mineral products, textiles and other industries, hindering the export of Chinese related products. The number of trade protection measures for processed food and wood products industry is small, and the influence coefficient is negative, but it is not statistically significant. Finally, we draw some enlightenments on the basis of empirical results in order to better deal with Indian trade protection.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣東外語外貿(mào)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F741.2

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