【摘要】：近幾年來,P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸在國內(nèi)外發(fā)展迅速,憑借著快速方便的網(wǎng)絡(luò)接口,P2P已經(jīng)幫助了很多無法從傳統(tǒng)融資渠道獲得資金的需求者,也使得P2P平臺的投資者獲利頗豐。針對P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸這一新興事物,本文旨在對網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸平臺的參與雙方進(jìn)行深入研究,試圖從理論和實證兩個方面解釋和探討借貸雙方的交易行為規(guī)律。本文通過理論研究、理論模型和實證研究的方法,系統(tǒng)梳理和解釋了網(wǎng)貸平臺借貸雙方的行為規(guī)律。在回顧與評述P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸國內(nèi)外研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,分別從信息不對稱理論、社會資本理論和行為金融理論探討和解釋網(wǎng)貸平臺借貸雙方的行為,并構(gòu)建了一個基于貝葉斯法則的P2P網(wǎng)貸信息瀑布模型,基于該模型,本文從理論上討論了貸款人可能發(fā)生的羊群效應(yīng)。然后,本文通過軟件獲取拍拍貸平臺的交易數(shù)據(jù),通過構(gòu)建Logistic模型,研究了影響借款人借款標(biāo)的滿標(biāo)的影響因素,并建立了借款滿標(biāo)預(yù)測模型。同時本文第四章也從實證的角度,通過后續(xù)投標(biāo)影響的檢驗方法論證了拍拍貸平臺上貸款人存在羊群效應(yīng)。本文通過研究得出以下結(jié)論:在理論基礎(chǔ)研究方面,信息不對稱理論、社會資本理論和行為金融理論可以用來解釋P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸雙方的行為,而信息瀑布模型也從理論上說明了貸款人發(fā)生羊群效應(yīng)的可能性。在實證研究方面,聚類分析結(jié)果顯示相同信用等級的借款人的行為特征卻不盡相同,而不同信用等級的借款人之間也會存在某些共同的特征;對影響借款滿標(biāo)的因素進(jìn)行分析,表明信用等級、利率等因素對借款人的借款標(biāo)的能否滿標(biāo)有顯著影響,而其中借款期限和借款次數(shù)兩個因素不被建議留在模型中,故本文據(jù)此對借款人提出相關(guān)建議;而在羊群效應(yīng)的實證檢驗中,模型結(jié)果顯示當(dāng)前投標(biāo)數(shù)目對借款標(biāo)的是否有后續(xù)投標(biāo)有顯著影響,因此貸款人中存在羊群效應(yīng)。
[Abstract]:In recent years, P2P network lending has developed rapidly at home and abroad. With the rapid and convenient network interface, P2P has helped many demanders who can not obtain funds from traditional financing channels, and also made the investors of P2P platform quite profitable. Aiming at the new thing of P2P network lending, this paper aims to make a deep study on the participants of the network lending platform, and tries to explain and explore the transaction behavior law of the borrowers and borrowers from both theoretical and empirical aspects. Through theoretical research, theoretical model and empirical research, this paper systematically combs and explains the behavior law of both borrowers and borrowers on the online loan platform. On the basis of reviewing and reviewing the research results of P2P online lending at home and abroad, this paper discusses and explains the behavior of both borrowers and borrowers of online lending platform from the theory of information asymmetry, the theory of social capital and the theory of behavioral finance. A P2P network loan information waterfall model based on Bayes rule is constructed. based on this model, this paper theoretically discusses the herding effect of borrowers. Then, this paper obtains the transaction data of PPDAI platform through software, constructs Logistic model, studies the influencing factors that affect the borrower's loan target full standard, and establishes the loan full standard prediction model. At the same time, the fourth chapter also demonstrates the herding effect of the lender on PPDAI platform through the test method of the influence of subsequent bidding from the empirical point of view. Through the research, this paper draws the following conclusions: in the theoretical basic research, the theory of information asymmetry, the theory of social capital and the theory of behavioral finance can be used to explain the behavior of P2P network borrowers and borrowers. The information waterfall model also theoretically explains the possibility of herding effect on the lender. In the aspect of empirical research, the results of cluster analysis show that the behavior characteristics of borrowers with the same credit rating are not the same, and there will be some common characteristics among borrowers with different credit grades. This paper analyzes the factors that affect the full loan mark, and shows that the credit rating, interest rate and other factors have a significant impact on whether the borrower's loan target can be fully marked, and the two factors, the loan term and the number of loans, are not recommended to remain in the model. Therefore, this paper puts forward some relevant suggestions to the borrower. In the empirical test of herding effect, the results of the model show that the current number of bids has a significant impact on the subsequent bidding, so there is herding effect among borrowers.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F724.6;F832.4

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