【摘要】：近幾年來(lái),P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸在國(guó)內(nèi)外發(fā)展迅速,憑借著快速方便的網(wǎng)絡(luò)接口,P2P已經(jīng)幫助了很多無(wú)法從傳統(tǒng)融資渠道獲得資金的需求者,也使得P2P平臺(tái)的投資者獲利頗豐。針對(duì)P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸這一新興事物,本文旨在對(duì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸平臺(tái)的參與雙方進(jìn)行深入研究,試圖從理論和實(shí)證兩個(gè)方面解釋和探討借貸雙方的交易行為規(guī)律。本文通過(guò)理論研究、理論模型和實(shí)證研究的方法,系統(tǒng)梳理和解釋了網(wǎng)貸平臺(tái)借貸雙方的行為規(guī)律。在回顧與評(píng)述P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸國(guó)內(nèi)外研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,分別從信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)理論、社會(huì)資本理論和行為金融理論探討和解釋網(wǎng)貸平臺(tái)借貸雙方的行為,并構(gòu)建了一個(gè)基于貝葉斯法則的P2P網(wǎng)貸信息瀑布模型,基于該模型,本文從理論上討論了貸款人可能發(fā)生的羊群效應(yīng)。然后,本文通過(guò)軟件獲取拍拍貸平臺(tái)的交易數(shù)據(jù),通過(guò)構(gòu)建Logistic模型,研究了影響借款人借款標(biāo)的滿(mǎn)標(biāo)的影響因素,并建立了借款滿(mǎn)標(biāo)預(yù)測(cè)模型。同時(shí)本文第四章也從實(shí)證的角度,通過(guò)后續(xù)投標(biāo)影響的檢驗(yàn)方法論證了拍拍貸平臺(tái)上貸款人存在羊群效應(yīng)。本文通過(guò)研究得出以下結(jié)論:在理論基礎(chǔ)研究方面,信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)理論、社會(huì)資本理論和行為金融理論可以用來(lái)解釋P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸雙方的行為,而信息瀑布模型也從理論上說(shuō)明了貸款人發(fā)生羊群效應(yīng)的可能性。在實(shí)證研究方面,聚類(lèi)分析結(jié)果顯示相同信用等級(jí)的借款人的行為特征卻不盡相同,而不同信用等級(jí)的借款人之間也會(huì)存在某些共同的特征;對(duì)影響借款滿(mǎn)標(biāo)的因素進(jìn)行分析,表明信用等級(jí)、利率等因素對(duì)借款人的借款標(biāo)的能否滿(mǎn)標(biāo)有顯著影響,而其中借款期限和借款次數(shù)兩個(gè)因素不被建議留在模型中,故本文據(jù)此對(duì)借款人提出相關(guān)建議;而在羊群效應(yīng)的實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)中,模型結(jié)果顯示當(dāng)前投標(biāo)數(shù)目對(duì)借款標(biāo)的是否有后續(xù)投標(biāo)有顯著影響,因此貸款人中存在羊群效應(yīng)。
[Abstract]:In recent years, P2P network lending has developed rapidly at home and abroad. With the rapid and convenient network interface, P2P has helped many demanders who can not obtain funds from traditional financing channels, and also made the investors of P2P platform quite profitable. Aiming at the new thing of P2P network lending, this paper aims to make a deep study on the participants of the network lending platform, and tries to explain and explore the transaction behavior law of the borrowers and borrowers from both theoretical and empirical aspects. Through theoretical research, theoretical model and empirical research, this paper systematically combs and explains the behavior law of both borrowers and borrowers on the online loan platform. On the basis of reviewing and reviewing the research results of P2P online lending at home and abroad, this paper discusses and explains the behavior of both borrowers and borrowers of online lending platform from the theory of information asymmetry, the theory of social capital and the theory of behavioral finance. A P2P network loan information waterfall model based on Bayes rule is constructed. based on this model, this paper theoretically discusses the herding effect of borrowers. Then, this paper obtains the transaction data of PPDAI platform through software, constructs Logistic model, studies the influencing factors that affect the borrower's loan target full standard, and establishes the loan full standard prediction model. At the same time, the fourth chapter also demonstrates the herding effect of the lender on PPDAI platform through the test method of the influence of subsequent bidding from the empirical point of view. Through the research, this paper draws the following conclusions: in the theoretical basic research, the theory of information asymmetry, the theory of social capital and the theory of behavioral finance can be used to explain the behavior of P2P network borrowers and borrowers. The information waterfall model also theoretically explains the possibility of herding effect on the lender. In the aspect of empirical research, the results of cluster analysis show that the behavior characteristics of borrowers with the same credit rating are not the same, and there will be some common characteristics among borrowers with different credit grades. This paper analyzes the factors that affect the full loan mark, and shows that the credit rating, interest rate and other factors have a significant impact on whether the borrower's loan target can be fully marked, and the two factors, the loan term and the number of loans, are not recommended to remain in the model. Therefore, this paper puts forward some relevant suggestions to the borrower. In the empirical test of herding effect, the results of the model show that the current number of bids has a significant impact on the subsequent bidding, so there is herding effect among borrowers.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F724.6;F832.4

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 劉文雅;晏鋼;;我國(guó)發(fā)展P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)信貸問(wèn)題探究[J];北方經(jīng)濟(jì);2011年14期

2 錢(qián)金葉;楊飛;;中國(guó)P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及前景[J];金融論壇;2012年01期

3 吳曉光;曹一;;論加強(qiáng)P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸平臺(tái)的監(jiān)管[J];南方金融;2011年04期

4 陳道富;朱鴻鳴;;我國(guó)P2P行業(yè)發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀、問(wèn)題及政策建議[J];重慶理工大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會(huì)科學(xué));2013年04期

5 羅洋;王艷;許可;;微型金融的新趨勢(shì):P2P在線貸款模式[J];黑龍江金融;2009年09期

6 孫之涵;;P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)小額信貸探析[J];征信;2010年03期

7 石曉軍;任若恩;肖遠(yuǎn)文;;邊界Logistic違約率模型及實(shí)證研究[J];管理科學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2007年03期

8 何大安;理性選擇向非理性選擇轉(zhuǎn)化的行為分析[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2005年08期

9 尤瑞章;張曉霞;;P2P在線借貸的中外比較分析——兼論對(duì)我國(guó)的啟示[J];金融發(fā)展評(píng)論;2010年03期

10 張燃;用Logit模型預(yù)測(cè)銀行客戶(hù)的違約概率[J];金融教學(xué)與研究;2005年04期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 宋文;P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸行為的實(shí)證研究[D];上海交通大學(xué);2013年

2 趙樂(lè)峰;P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸融資可得性分析[D];河北經(jīng)貿(mào)大學(xué);2013年

，

本文編號(hào)：2487356