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我國(guó)遭受“雙反”的細(xì)分行業(yè)變動(dòng)研究

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2019-03-16 12:26
【摘要】:隨著中國(guó)外貿(mào)規(guī)模的迅速擴(kuò)大,中國(guó)成為了貿(mào)易摩擦的集中對(duì)象,相關(guān)國(guó)家針對(duì)中國(guó)的貿(mào)易手段,從單個(gè)運(yùn)用反傾銷、反補(bǔ)貼逐漸上升到兩者并用,即“雙反”。自2004年初遇第一起“雙反”調(diào)查以來(lái),截止2013年底,我國(guó)已遭受69起“雙反”調(diào)查,涉案行業(yè)不斷擴(kuò)大并顯示出一些規(guī)律。中國(guó)成為“雙反”的集中對(duì)象,原因是多元的:既有公平貿(mào)易原則、WTO規(guī)則檢視下的客觀性、產(chǎn)業(yè)更迭、政府的產(chǎn)業(yè)政策及措施、貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與貿(mào)易量變化等層面的必然性,也有部分國(guó)家政治周期、選舉周期乃至外交關(guān)系等層面的或然性。透過(guò)現(xiàn)象,通過(guò)對(duì)我國(guó)遭受“雙反”細(xì)分行業(yè)變動(dòng)特征及其引致因素的分析,探尋我國(guó)遭受“雙反”細(xì)分行業(yè)的變動(dòng)規(guī)律及對(duì)相關(guān)趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),對(duì)我國(guó)“新常態(tài)”下繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大開(kāi)放,具有理論和政策參考價(jià)值,這亦是本文的研究主旨。本文共分為六章。第一章是導(dǎo)論部分。第二章對(duì)本文相關(guān)的文獻(xiàn)和理論進(jìn)行回顧,以公平貿(mào)易理論及其主張、“雙反”的貿(mào)易政策效應(yīng)理論、引致“雙反”的產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)機(jī)理及貿(mào)易政策的政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)作為本文的理論基礎(chǔ)。第三章通過(guò)對(duì)我國(guó)遭受“雙反”的細(xì)分行業(yè)類別分析,得出細(xì)分行業(yè)變動(dòng)特征,包括鋼鐵及其制品行業(yè)仍是“雙反”重災(zāi)區(qū)、我國(guó)遭受“雙反”的細(xì)分行業(yè)范圍不斷擴(kuò)大及國(guó)外對(duì)華“雙反”向高新技術(shù)行業(yè)延伸。第四章對(duì)我國(guó)遭受“雙反”的細(xì)分行業(yè)變動(dòng)原因進(jìn)行理論分析。第五章通過(guò)構(gòu)建實(shí)證模型,運(yùn)用負(fù)二項(xiàng)回歸模型對(duì)我國(guó)遭受“雙反”的細(xì)分行業(yè)變動(dòng)原因進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,并結(jié)合上文總結(jié)的變動(dòng)特征來(lái)總結(jié)我國(guó)行業(yè)面臨“雙反”的規(guī)律和趨勢(shì),得出傳統(tǒng)行業(yè)仍是國(guó)外對(duì)華“雙反”的重點(diǎn)行業(yè)以及我國(guó)和歐美等國(guó)在技術(shù)密集型行業(yè)領(lǐng)域的“雙反”摩擦?xí)萦疫@一結(jié)論。第六章總結(jié)研究結(jié)論,并從結(jié)論中得到啟發(fā),即通過(guò)政府、行業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)及企業(yè)角度,為減少或避免國(guó)外對(duì)華“雙反”有針對(duì)性的提出對(duì)策建議。
[Abstract]:With the rapid expansion of the scale of China's foreign trade, China has become a concentrated object of trade friction. The trade means of the relevant countries against China, from single application of anti-dumping, countervailing gradually rose to the use of both, that is, "double countervailing". Since the first "double violation" investigation in 2004, by the end of 2013, China has been subjected to 69 "double violation" investigations. The industry involved in the case continues to expand and show some rules. China has become the focus of the "double Reflections" because of its pluralism: the inevitability of existing fair trade principles, objectivity under the review of WTO rules, industrial change, government industrial policies and measures, trade structure and trade volume changes, and so on. There are also some political cycles, electoral cycles and even diplomatic relations at the level of probability. Through the phenomenon, through the analysis of the changing characteristics and the cause factors of the "double reverse" subdivision industry in our country, this paper explores the changing law of the "double reverse" subdivision industry in our country and forecasts the related trends. It is of theoretical and policy reference value to continue to open up to the "new normal" in China, which is also the main purpose of this paper. This paper is divided into six chapters. The first chapter is the introduction. The second chapter reviews the relevant literature and theories of this paper, based on the fair trade theory and its propositions, the theory of the effect of trade policy of the "double negatives". The mechanism of industrial economics and the political economics of trade policy are the theoretical basis of this paper. In the third chapter, through the analysis of the subdivided industries that our country has suffered from the "double Reflections", it is concluded that the changing characteristics of the subdivided industries, including the iron and steel industry and its products industry, are still the hardest hit areas. China has suffered from the expansion of the scope of the "double Reflections" industry and the extension of the "double Reflections" to the high-tech industry by foreign countries. The fourth chapter makes a theoretical analysis on the causes of the change of the subdivided industries that our country suffers from the "double Reflections". In the fifth chapter, we use the negative binomial regression model to analyze the causes of the change of the subdivided industries in China through the construction of the empirical model and the negative binomial regression model. Combined with the characteristics of the changes summarized above, this paper summarizes the law and trend of the "double negative" faced by the Chinese industry. It is concluded that the traditional industry is still the key industry in foreign countries and the friction between China and Europe and America in the field of technology-intensive industries will become more and more serious. The sixth chapter summarizes the research conclusion, and gets the inspiration from the conclusion, namely, through the government, the trade association and the enterprise angle, in order to reduce or avoid the foreign "double revolt" targeted countermeasure suggestion.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:南京師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2015
【分類號(hào)】:F752.02

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