【摘要】：目前對(duì)于消費(fèi)者信心指數(shù)的調(diào)查主要是從消費(fèi)者生活中的幾個(gè)方面著手,包括經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、生活狀況、就業(yè)、收入、物價(jià)、儲(chǔ)蓄、購(gòu)房、房?jī)r(jià)和投資等方面,對(duì)外公布的消費(fèi)者信心指數(shù)是由這些信心分指數(shù)加權(quán)構(gòu)成的。在消費(fèi)者信心指數(shù)中的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展信心分指數(shù)指數(shù)可看做是一種綜合的主觀(guān)指數(shù),而其他信心分指數(shù)均可由相應(yīng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)來(lái)體現(xiàn),例如就業(yè)狀況可體現(xiàn)就業(yè)信心,收入狀況可體現(xiàn)收入信心等。因此可認(rèn)為這些信心分指數(shù)影響著經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展信心指數(shù)。但是由于不同地區(qū)的宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境不同,因此這些信心分指數(shù)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展信心的影響程度是不同的,因此分別構(gòu)成了個(gè)人層次的以經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展信心為因變量,其他信心分指數(shù)為自變量的層-1模型,地區(qū)層次的以層-1模型的截距項(xiàng)和斜率項(xiàng)為因變量,地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)指標(biāo)為自變量的層-2模型。因此本文通過(guò)建立分層線(xiàn)性模型,研究地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)指標(biāo)、信心分指數(shù)和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展信心綜合指數(shù)的關(guān)系。從最終模型結(jié)果來(lái)看,人均固定資產(chǎn)投資與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展信心之間是正向關(guān)系;就業(yè)信心和收入信心對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展信心的影響不存在地區(qū)差異;城鎮(zhèn)醫(yī)保參保率和市場(chǎng)化水平對(duì)儲(chǔ)蓄信心和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展信心之間的作用為負(fù)向削弱作用;而購(gòu)房信心對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展信心的影響確實(shí)存在著地區(qū)差異,但是本文所選的變量不能解釋這一差異;城鎮(zhèn)醫(yī)保參保率對(duì)受教育程度和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展信心之間的作用為正向削弱關(guān)系,市場(chǎng)化水平對(duì)受教育程度和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展信心之間的作用為正向加強(qiáng)的關(guān)系。因此,政府在制定提高經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展信心的政策從而促進(jìn)消費(fèi)時(shí),可以參考這些影響地區(qū)間差異的經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)質(zhì)保指標(biāo)。
[Abstract]:At present, the survey of consumer confidence index mainly starts from several aspects of consumer life, including economic development, living conditions, employment, income, prices, savings, housing purchases, housing prices and investment, etc. The published consumer confidence index is weighted by these sub-indices of confidence. The economic development confidence index in the consumer confidence index can be regarded as a comprehensive subjective index, while other confidence sub-indices can be reflected by the corresponding economic indicators, such as employment situation can reflect employment confidence. Income situation can reflect income confidence and so on. Therefore, it can be considered that these confidence sub-indices affect economic development confidence index. However, because of the different macroeconomic environment in different regions, the impact of these confidence sub-indices on economic development confidence is different, and thus constitutes a dependent variable of economic development confidence at the individual level. Other confidence index is the independent variable in the layer 1 model, the region level in which the intercept term and slope term of the layer 1 model are dependent variables, and the regional economic and social index is the independent variable. Therefore, by establishing a hierarchical linear model, this paper studies the relationship among regional economic and social indicators, confidence sub-index and economic development confidence comprehensive index. According to the results of the final model, there is a positive relationship between per capita fixed asset investment and economic development confidence, and there is no regional difference between employment confidence and income confidence on economic development confidence. The effect of the participation rate of urban medical insurance and the level of marketization on the confidence of savings and economic development is negative. However, there are regional differences in the influence of housing confidence on economic development confidence, but the variables selected in this paper can not explain the difference. The effect of urban medical insurance participation rate on education level and economic development confidence is positively weakened, while market-oriented level plays a positive role in strengthening education level and economic development confidence. Therefore, when the government formulates the policy of improving the confidence of economic development to promote consumption, it can refer to these economic and social quality assurance indicators that affect regional differences.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F713.55

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本文編號(hào)：2426760