我國金融業(yè)FDI流入對我國金融服務貿易的影響分析
發(fā)布時間：2019-02-16 11:51
【摘要】：在經濟全球化背景下,隨著服務業(yè)在經濟整體中的重要性增強和金融服務業(yè)在服務業(yè)中的地位上升,金融業(yè)FDI成為很多國家重要的部分。我國加入世貿組織以后,金融服務業(yè)利用外資的規(guī)模逐漸擴大,金融業(yè)FDI流入逐漸增多,對我國金融服務貿易產生不可避免的影響。本文采用文獻法、比較分析法、定量分析法、理論分析法和實證分析法對我國金融業(yè)FDI流入對我國金融服務貿易的影響進行分析。在理論分析中,本文分析了六大國際投資的經典理論以及學術界中關于投資和貿易關系的兩派主要觀點:以Robert.A.Mundell為代表的FDI替代貿易理論以及以K.Kojima為代表的FDI貿易互補理論。本文進行了我國金融服務貿易和金融業(yè)FDI流入的現(xiàn)狀分析,并分析了我國金融業(yè)FDI流入對金融服務貿易的可能影響。在實證分析中,通過對2006年第一季度至2016年第二季度我國金融業(yè)外商直接投資實際使用金額的季度數(shù)據以及2006年第一季度至2016年第二季度我國金融服務貿易及其組成部分:金融服務貿易(銀行以及其他金融服務)和保險服務貿易的進出口數(shù)據進行協(xié)整檢驗,得出我國金融業(yè)FDI流入與我國金融服務貿易出口有較明顯的長期均衡穩(wěn)定的互補關系。我國金融業(yè)FDI流入對我國金融服務貿易進口的互補關系不明顯,主要是由于對保險服務貿易進口的影響不大。本文還通過主成分分析引入其他自變量,綜合考量我國金融業(yè)FDI流入對我國金融服務貿易出口的影響解釋程度,得到我國金融業(yè)FDI流入是影響我國金融服務貿易出口的重要因素的結論。本文還使用嶺回歸建模得到包含我國金融業(yè)FDI流入在內的多個自變量解釋我國金融服務貿易出口的方程。通過嶺回歸方程和協(xié)整方程的比較,本文認為嶺回歸方程更有效地說明了我國金融業(yè)FDI流入對我國金融服務貿易出口的影響。綜合理論與實證分析,本研究認為我國金融業(yè)FDI流入與我國金融服務貿易出口有明顯的互補關系,而我國金融業(yè)FDI流入也沒有替代我國金融服務貿易的進口,從這個角度驗證了投資與貿易的關系更符合以K.Kojima為代表的FDI貿易互補理論。因此我國需合理吸引金融業(yè)FDI流入,充分利用金融業(yè)FDI流入來發(fā)展我國金融服務貿易。本研究提出了相應的六大建議,從各方面對我國能更好地利用金融業(yè)FDI流入和金融服務貿易的發(fā)展提出建議和展望。本文有四大創(chuàng)新點:除對整體金融服務貿易進行分析外,還分別研究我國金融業(yè)FDI流入對金融服務貿易(銀行和其他金融服務)和保險服務貿易的影響;全面解釋分析我國金融業(yè)FDI流入影響我國金融服務貿易的機制;實證分析中分別考察變量之間靜態(tài)和動態(tài)的狀況;加入主成分分析和嶺回歸方程引入其他自變量使實證分析更全面。
[Abstract]:Under the background of economic globalization, with the increasing importance of the service industry in the whole economy and the increasing position of the financial service industry in the service industry, the financial industry FDI has become an important part in many countries. After China's entry into the WTO, the scale of utilizing foreign capital in financial service industry has gradually expanded, and the inflow of FDI in financial industry has gradually increased, which has an inevitable impact on China's financial service trade. This paper analyzes the influence of FDI inflow on China's financial services trade by means of literature, comparative analysis, quantitative analysis, theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. In theoretical analysis, This paper analyzes six classical theories of international investment and two main viewpoints on investment and trade relations in academic circles: FDI alternative trade theory represented by Robert.A.Mundell and FDI trade complementarity theory represented by K.Kojima. This paper analyzes the current situation of China's financial services trade and financial industry's FDI inflow, and analyzes the possible influence of China's financial industry's FDI inflow on financial service trade. In the empirical analysis, Through the quarterly data on the actual amount of foreign direct investment in China's financial sector from the first quarter of 2006 to the second quarter of 2016, and the trade in financial services and its components in the first quarter of 2006 to the second quarter of 2016: finance Trade in services (banking and other financial services) and insurance services trade in import and export data for cointegration testing, It is concluded that there is an obvious long-term equilibrium and stable complementary relationship between the inflow of FDI in China's financial industry and the export of China's financial services trade. The complementary relationship between the inflow of FDI and the import of China's financial services trade is not obvious, mainly because it has little effect on the import of insurance services trade. By introducing other independent variables through principal component analysis, this paper synthetically considers the impact of FDI inflow in China's financial industry on the export of financial services trade. It is concluded that the inflow of FDI is an important factor affecting the export of China's financial services trade. This paper also uses the ridge regression model to obtain several independent variables including the inflow of FDI in China's financial industry to explain the export equation of China's financial services trade. By comparing the Ridge regression equation with the Co-integration equation, this paper holds that the Ridge regression equation is more effective in explaining the influence of FDI inflow on the export of China's financial services trade. Based on the comprehensive theory and empirical analysis, this paper concludes that the inflow of FDI in China's financial industry is obviously complementary to the export of China's financial services trade, and that the inflow of FDI in China's financial sector does not replace the import of China's financial services trade. From this point of view, the relationship between investment and trade is more in line with the FDI trade complementarity theory represented by K.Kojima. Therefore, our country should reasonably attract the financial industry FDI inflow and make full use of the finance industry FDI inflow to develop our country's financial service trade. In this study, six suggestions are put forward to make better use of the financial industry FDI inflow and the development of financial service trade. There are four innovations in this paper: besides the analysis of the overall financial services trade, we also study the impact of FDI inflow on the financial services trade (banking and other financial services) and insurance services trade; Fully explain and analyze the mechanism of the influence of FDI inflow in China's financial industry on China's financial services trade, and examine the static and dynamic status of variables in the empirical analysis. Adding principal component analysis and Ridge regression equation to introduce other independent variables makes the empirical analysis more comprehensive.
【學位授予單位】：上海外國語大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F752.68
本文編號：2424418
[Abstract]:Under the background of economic globalization, with the increasing importance of the service industry in the whole economy and the increasing position of the financial service industry in the service industry, the financial industry FDI has become an important part in many countries. After China's entry into the WTO, the scale of utilizing foreign capital in financial service industry has gradually expanded, and the inflow of FDI in financial industry has gradually increased, which has an inevitable impact on China's financial service trade. This paper analyzes the influence of FDI inflow on China's financial services trade by means of literature, comparative analysis, quantitative analysis, theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. In theoretical analysis, This paper analyzes six classical theories of international investment and two main viewpoints on investment and trade relations in academic circles: FDI alternative trade theory represented by Robert.A.Mundell and FDI trade complementarity theory represented by K.Kojima. This paper analyzes the current situation of China's financial services trade and financial industry's FDI inflow, and analyzes the possible influence of China's financial industry's FDI inflow on financial service trade. In the empirical analysis, Through the quarterly data on the actual amount of foreign direct investment in China's financial sector from the first quarter of 2006 to the second quarter of 2016, and the trade in financial services and its components in the first quarter of 2006 to the second quarter of 2016: finance Trade in services (banking and other financial services) and insurance services trade in import and export data for cointegration testing, It is concluded that there is an obvious long-term equilibrium and stable complementary relationship between the inflow of FDI in China's financial industry and the export of China's financial services trade. The complementary relationship between the inflow of FDI and the import of China's financial services trade is not obvious, mainly because it has little effect on the import of insurance services trade. By introducing other independent variables through principal component analysis, this paper synthetically considers the impact of FDI inflow in China's financial industry on the export of financial services trade. It is concluded that the inflow of FDI is an important factor affecting the export of China's financial services trade. This paper also uses the ridge regression model to obtain several independent variables including the inflow of FDI in China's financial industry to explain the export equation of China's financial services trade. By comparing the Ridge regression equation with the Co-integration equation, this paper holds that the Ridge regression equation is more effective in explaining the influence of FDI inflow on the export of China's financial services trade. Based on the comprehensive theory and empirical analysis, this paper concludes that the inflow of FDI in China's financial industry is obviously complementary to the export of China's financial services trade, and that the inflow of FDI in China's financial sector does not replace the import of China's financial services trade. From this point of view, the relationship between investment and trade is more in line with the FDI trade complementarity theory represented by K.Kojima. Therefore, our country should reasonably attract the financial industry FDI inflow and make full use of the finance industry FDI inflow to develop our country's financial service trade. In this study, six suggestions are put forward to make better use of the financial industry FDI inflow and the development of financial service trade. There are four innovations in this paper: besides the analysis of the overall financial services trade, we also study the impact of FDI inflow on the financial services trade (banking and other financial services) and insurance services trade; Fully explain and analyze the mechanism of the influence of FDI inflow in China's financial industry on China's financial services trade, and examine the static and dynamic status of variables in the empirical analysis. Adding principal component analysis and Ridge regression equation to introduce other independent variables makes the empirical analysis more comprehensive.
【學位授予單位】：上海外國語大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F752.68
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，本文編號：2424418
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