【摘要】：新常態(tài)下,從供給側(cè)挖掘動(dòng)力成為穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)的治本之路。自改革開(kāi)放以后,中國(guó)依靠“投資、消費(fèi)、出口”這三架馬車(chē),經(jīng)濟(jì)迅速增長(zhǎng)。然而,目前全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)尚未明朗,市場(chǎng)需求有待回升,中國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易正處于新的歷史機(jī)遇期。東北的經(jīng)濟(jì)一直為人所“詬病”,其中吉林省對(duì)外貿(mào)易持續(xù)20年逆差,在此種國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)背景下,可謂是突破外貿(mào)逆差的最佳準(zhǔn)備階段。本文主要從供給側(cè)提取動(dòng)力影響因素,研究其對(duì)吉林省對(duì)外貿(mào)易發(fā)展作用情況與關(guān)系,通過(guò)借鑒內(nèi)陸省份如廣西、新疆、上海市在對(duì)外貿(mào)易發(fā)展的經(jīng)驗(yàn)可取之處,同時(shí)選取2000年至2015年的吉林省數(shù)據(jù),綜合吉林省技術(shù)創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)出、生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)就業(yè)人數(shù)和政府對(duì)外貿(mào)易干預(yù)對(duì)吉林省對(duì)外貿(mào)易的發(fā)展影響,建立VAR模型。實(shí)證結(jié)果得出技術(shù)創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)出對(duì)對(duì)外貿(mào)易發(fā)展的貢獻(xiàn)度最大,其次是政府對(duì)外貿(mào)易干預(yù),最后是生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)勞動(dòng)力人數(shù)占總勞動(dòng)力的比重,同時(shí),也顯現(xiàn)出這些因素在促進(jìn)吉林省對(duì)外貿(mào)易發(fā)展過(guò)程中的動(dòng)態(tài)特征:技術(shù)創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)出和生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)就業(yè)人數(shù)占比在作用上,呈現(xiàn)出了一定的周期性,而政府對(duì)外貿(mào)易干預(yù)則作用迅速反饋,但是政策效果持續(xù)性不強(qiáng),有兩個(gè)原因,一是國(guó)際市場(chǎng)的需求并不旺盛,二是出口產(chǎn)品的差異性不強(qiáng),也是技術(shù)創(chuàng)新高度不夠的表現(xiàn)。建議吉林省應(yīng)該加強(qiáng)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的鼓勵(lì)措施,調(diào)動(dòng)企業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的積極性,在技術(shù)創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)出上可以實(shí)施相應(yīng)政策縮短技術(shù)創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)出的周期性,加強(qiáng)培訓(xùn)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)人員的專(zhuān)業(yè)水平和業(yè)務(wù)能力,降低企業(yè)在新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)、投入市場(chǎng)、占領(lǐng)市場(chǎng)和培訓(xùn)人才方面的壓力,縮短企業(yè)在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)策略的時(shí)間,從而增強(qiáng)吉林省的外貿(mào)出口能力。
[Abstract]:Under the new normal, excavating power from the supply side becomes the road of stabilizing economy. Since the reform and opening up, China relies on "investment, consumption, export" these three carriages, rapid economic growth. However, at present, the global economic growth trend is not clear, market demand needs to pick up, China's foreign trade is in a new historical opportunity period. The economy of Northeast China has been criticized by people all the time. Jilin Province's foreign trade deficit lasts for 20 years. In this international economic background, it can be described as the best preparation stage for breaking the foreign trade deficit. In this paper, the influence factors of power are extracted from the supply side, and the effect and relationship of the factors on the development of foreign trade in Jilin Province are studied. By learning from the experiences of inland provinces such as Guangxi, Xinjiang and Shanghai in the development of foreign trade, At the same time, the data of Jilin Province from 2000 to 2015 are selected, and the VAR model is established by synthesizing the technological innovation output of Jilin Province, the employment of producer services and the influence of government foreign trade intervention on the development of foreign trade in Jilin Province. The empirical results show that the contribution of technological innovation output to the development of foreign trade is the largest, followed by government foreign trade intervention, and finally, the proportion of the labor force of producer services to the total labor force, at the same time, It also shows the dynamic characteristics of these factors in the process of promoting the development of Jilin's foreign trade: the proportion of technological innovation output and the number of people employed in producer services are in effect, showing a certain periodicity. The foreign trade intervention of the government has a rapid feedback, but the effect of the policy is not strong, there are two reasons, one is that the demand in the international market is not exuberant, the other is the difference of the export products is not strong, and the high degree of technological innovation is not enough. It is suggested that Jilin Province should strengthen the encouraging measures of technological innovation, arouse the enthusiasm of enterprises' technological innovation, and implement corresponding policies to shorten the periodicity of technological innovation output. Strengthen the professional level and professional ability of training productive service personnel, reduce the pressure on enterprises to develop new products, put into the market, occupy the market and train talents, and shorten the time of enterprises' strategy in the international market. Thus strengthening the export capacity of Jilin Province.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林華橋外國(guó)語(yǔ)學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F752.8

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