發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-12-14 02:22

【摘要】：民營(yíng)企業(yè)不僅數(shù)量眾多,而且對(duì)促進(jìn)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、吸納就業(yè)、推動(dòng)創(chuàng)新和維護(hù)社會(huì)穩(wěn)定發(fā)揮著巨大作用,更是我國(guó)參與國(guó)際市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的生力軍,在“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略的實(shí)施過(guò)程中也將扮演重要角色。隨著國(guó)家體制改革進(jìn)程的深化,民營(yíng)企業(yè)對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要意義將愈發(fā)凸顯。但是與其他所有制類型的企業(yè)相比,民營(yíng)企業(yè)地位較低,生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營(yíng)環(huán)境差,生存時(shí)間普遍不長(zhǎng),平均壽命只有2.9年。民營(yíng)企業(yè)群體的成長(zhǎng)壯大是我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定持續(xù)發(fā)展的必要條件,其高死亡率必須引起重視。在此前提下,本文著眼民營(yíng)企業(yè)生存問(wèn)題,研究了出口及其他一系列因素對(duì)其生存時(shí)間的影響效果。本文首先回顧了民營(yíng)企業(yè)的發(fā)展歷程并分析了其生存現(xiàn)狀,從而更加深入的了解民營(yíng)企業(yè)這一群體。然后分析了出口對(duì)民營(yíng)企業(yè)的影響機(jī)理并介紹了生存分析方法,在此基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用Kaplan-Meier乘積-極限估計(jì)方法和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率曲線對(duì)出口及其他變量對(duì)民營(yíng)企業(yè)生存時(shí)間的影響效果進(jìn)行了估計(jì)。之后在實(shí)證部分,本文基于中國(guó)工業(yè)企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)1999-2007年的民營(yíng)企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用COX比例風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模型驗(yàn)證了出口及其他變量對(duì)民營(yíng)企業(yè)生存時(shí)間的作用效果,并用Weibull估計(jì)方法對(duì)回歸結(jié)果進(jìn)行了穩(wěn)健性檢驗(yàn),最后提出了推動(dòng)民營(yíng)企業(yè)更好發(fā)展的一些政策建議。在理論分析與實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,本文得出的結(jié)論主要有：出口能夠顯著提高民營(yíng)企業(yè)的生存時(shí)間,但是對(duì)不同技術(shù)行業(yè)和地區(qū)的民營(yíng)企業(yè)的影響效果是不同的。出口對(duì)高技術(shù)行業(yè)和東部地區(qū)民營(yíng)出口企業(yè)壽命的延長(zhǎng)作用更顯著；企業(yè)規(guī)模(Scale)對(duì)民營(yíng)企業(yè)失敗風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有顯著負(fù)向影響；企業(yè)年齡(Age, Age2)與民營(yíng)企業(yè)失敗概率的倒“U”型關(guān)系,也就是說(shuō)并不是說(shuō)企業(yè)年齡越大,失敗的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)越低,而是存在一個(gè)拐點(diǎn),當(dāng)企業(yè)年齡增長(zhǎng)到一定程度,不僅不會(huì)促進(jìn)企業(yè)生存,反而會(huì)提高企業(yè)失敗概率；資本密集度(KL)越高,民營(yíng)企業(yè)的生存可能性越大。同樣,銷售利潤(rùn)率(Prof)越高的民營(yíng)企業(yè),失敗概率越低,說(shuō)明經(jīng)營(yíng)效率越高,企業(yè)越容易存活。資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率(Debt)對(duì)民營(yíng)企業(yè)失敗事件的影響是正向的,即高資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率會(huì)加大企業(yè)失敗的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),不利于企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)發(fā)展。平均工資(Wage)越高,即人力資本投入越大,民營(yíng)企業(yè)生存概率越高。
[Abstract]:Private enterprises not only have a large number, but also play a great role in promoting national economic growth, absorbing employment, promoting innovation and maintaining social stability. Belt and Road will also play an important role in the implementation of the strategy. With the deepening of national system reform, the importance of private enterprises to economic development will become more and more prominent. But compared with other types of enterprises, the status of private enterprises is lower, the production and management environment is poor, the survival time is generally not long, the average life span is only 2.9 years. The growth and expansion of private enterprises is a necessary condition for the steady and sustainable development of Chinese economy, and its high mortality rate must be paid attention to. On this premise, this paper focuses on the survival of private enterprises, and studies the effects of export and other factors on their survival time. This paper first reviews the development of private enterprises and analyzes the current situation of their survival, so as to better understand this group of private enterprises. Then it analyzes the influence mechanism of export on private enterprises and introduces the method of survival analysis, on the basis of which, The effects of export and other variables on the survival time of private enterprises are estimated by using Kaplan-Meier product-limit estimation method and risk rate curve. Then in the empirical part, based on the data of Chinese industrial enterprise database from 1999 to 2007, this paper uses the COX proportional risk model to verify the effect of export and other variables on the survival time of private enterprises. The regression results are tested by Weibull estimation method, and some policy suggestions are put forward to promote the better development of private enterprises. On the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical test, the main conclusions of this paper are as follows: export can significantly improve the survival time of private enterprises, but the effects on private enterprises in different technology industries and regions are different. The effect of export on the extension of the life of high-tech industry and private export enterprises in the eastern region is more significant, and the (Scale) of enterprise scale has a significant negative impact on the risk of failure of private enterprises. The inverted "U" relationship between Age, Age2 and the probability of failure of private enterprises is not to say that the older the enterprise is, the lower the risk of failure is, but that there is an inflection point when the enterprise age increases to a certain extent. Not only will not promote the survival of enterprises, but will improve the probability of enterprise failure; The higher the capital intensity (KL), the greater the survival possibility of private enterprises. Similarly, the higher the (Prof), the lower the probability of failure, which means that the more efficient the business is, the easier it is to survive. The impact of asset-liability ratio (Debt) on the failure of private enterprises is positive, that is, high asset-liability ratio will increase the risk of enterprise failure and is not conducive to the development of enterprise management. The higher the average salary (Wage), the higher the survival probability of private enterprises.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F752.62;F276.5

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本文編號(hào)：2377735