【摘要】：近年來,隨著全球一體化的加速發(fā)展,世界經(jīng)濟(jì)格局也發(fā)現(xiàn)了比較大的變化,其中以經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型為目的的新興發(fā)展中國家尤為突出。而金磚四國作為發(fā)展中國家的代表,四個國家的對外貿(mào)易近年來發(fā)展非常迅速,特別是金融危機(jī)之后,金磚四國的增長依舊強(qiáng)勢,是世界經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的重要引擎。在此本文選取金磚四國為例,它們過去一段時間對外貿(mào)易順差不斷擴(kuò)大,經(jīng)濟(jì)得到飛速增長,而針對其匯率對于貿(mào)易順差的影響相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)較少,故從此角度出發(fā),旨在為國家相關(guān)政策制定提供幫助。本文主要分國別研究金磚四國,通過對比線性模型與非線性模型的結(jié)果來解釋匯率變動對于出口貿(mào)易的影響。在線性回歸結(jié)果中四個國家的匯率均與出口值顯著負(fù)相關(guān);從匯率波動率來看,中國的匯率波動率與出口無顯著相關(guān)系,巴西的匯率波動率與出口在5%的顯著性水平上正相關(guān),印度與俄羅斯均在1%的顯著性水平上正相關(guān);對于收入水平而言,四個國家的收入水平與本國的出口值也顯著正相關(guān)。在門限回歸模型中,巴西除了匯率波動在3.71與4.14之間,匯率與出口值正相關(guān)以外,其他時候都與出口呈現(xiàn)顯著負(fù)相關(guān),中國與俄羅斯的本國貨幣兌美元的匯率與出口值顯著負(fù)相關(guān)。從匯率波動看,只有巴西的匯率波動僅當(dāng)匯率與出口呈現(xiàn)正相關(guān)關(guān)系時,與出口的關(guān)系是顯著負(fù)相關(guān),中國與俄羅斯的匯率波動率與出口都無顯著性相關(guān)性。最后,巴西的收入水平在匯率波動較小時,與出口呈現(xiàn)正相關(guān)關(guān)系,而在匯率波動較大時,與出口呈現(xiàn)負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系;中國與俄羅斯的收入水平都跟出口值是顯著正相關(guān)。出現(xiàn)上述結(jié)果的原因可能在于每個國家的出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)不同及本國匯率制度的差異。從本文的實證結(jié)果來看未來我國發(fā)展,我國目前仍然是出口導(dǎo)向型的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,匯率波動對于本國的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展是有一定影響的。而當(dāng)匯率波動較大時,風(fēng)險厭惡型廠商則會減少生產(chǎn),所以政府應(yīng)該努力維持人民幣的穩(wěn)定。然而對于國際市場上我國貨幣的穩(wěn)定性,究其根本還是需要依靠本國企業(yè)的利潤率與生存能力。我國企業(yè)應(yīng)該時刻保持風(fēng)險意識,對于匯率波動異常需要提高警惕。貨幣當(dāng)局則應(yīng)該積極推動人民幣國際化進(jìn)程,這樣也可以減少本國出口貿(mào)易受到匯率變化的不確定性,從而將出口導(dǎo)向型的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長方式轉(zhuǎn)變成擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需為導(dǎo)向的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長方式。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the accelerated development of global integration, the world economic pattern has also found a relatively large change, especially in the emerging developing countries which aim at economic transformation. As a representative of the developing countries, the four BRICs' foreign trade has developed very rapidly in recent years. Especially after the financial crisis, the BRICs' growth is still strong, which is an important engine of the world economic recovery. In this paper, the Bric countries are selected as an example. Their foreign trade surplus has been expanding and their economy has been growing rapidly in the past period, but there is little literature on the impact of their exchange rate on the trade surplus, so from this point of view, The aim is to provide assistance for the development of relevant national policies. This paper focuses on the BRICs by comparing the results of linear model and nonlinear model to explain the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on export trade. In the linear regression results, the exchange rates of the four countries were significantly negatively correlated with the value of exports; From the point of view of exchange rate volatility, there is no significant relationship between China's exchange rate volatility and exports. Brazil's exchange rate volatility is positively correlated with exports at a significant level of 5%, while India and Russia are both positively correlated at a significant level of 1%. In terms of income levels, the income levels of the four countries are also significantly positively correlated with their export values. In the threshold regression model, in addition to the exchange rate fluctuations between 3.71 and 4.14, the exchange rate is positively correlated with the export value, and there is a significant negative correlation between the exchange rate and the export value at other times. The exchange rate of China and Russia against the dollar is negatively correlated with exports. From the point of view of exchange rate fluctuations, only when the exchange rate of Brazil is positively correlated with exports, the relationship with exports is significantly negative, while the exchange rate volatility of China and Russia has no significant correlation with exports. Finally, Brazil's income level shows a positive correlation with exports when the exchange rate fluctuates less, and negatively with exports when the exchange rate fluctuates more, while the income levels of China and Russia are significantly positively correlated with export value. This may be due to the differences in the structure of export commodities and the exchange rate regime of each country. From the empirical results of this paper, the future development of China is still export-oriented economic development, exchange rate fluctuations have a certain impact on the economic development of our country. When the exchange rate is volatile, risk-averse manufacturers reduce production, so the government should try to keep the yuan stable. However, the stability of Chinese currency in the international market depends on the profit margin and survivability of domestic enterprises. Chinese enterprises should always maintain risk awareness and should be vigilant against abnormal exchange rate fluctuations. The monetary authorities should actively promote the process of internationalization of the renminbi, which can also reduce the uncertainty that domestic export trade is subject to exchange rate changes. Thus, the export-oriented economic growth mode will be transformed into the expansion of domestic demand-oriented economic growth mode.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：電子科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F831.6;F746

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