【摘要】：隨著多邊貿(mào)易談判受阻,區(qū)域性及雙邊自由貿(mào)易談判在全球日漸盛行。美國亦順應(yīng)潮流,主導(dǎo)推動(dòng)跨太平洋戰(zhàn)略經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定(TPP)和跨大西洋貿(mào)易與投資伙伴協(xié)定(TTIP),無疑將對中國深度融入全球價(jià)值鏈形成障礙。中國正在積極尋求與其他貿(mào)易伙伴商建自由貿(mào)易區(qū)。在2016年11月閉幕的亞太經(jīng)濟(jì)合作組織(APEC)第二十四次領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人非正式會議在秘魯?shù)氖锥祭R閉幕。在此次會議上,各經(jīng)濟(jì)體的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人批準(zhǔn)了 APEC部長會議提交的《亞太自貿(mào)區(qū)集體戰(zhàn)略研究報(bào)告》和相關(guān)政策建議,并以此作為《亞太自貿(mào)區(qū)利馬宣言》。這是亞太自由貿(mào)易區(qū)(FTAAP)從愿景到行動(dòng)中,APEC各經(jīng)濟(jì)體通過集體行動(dòng)實(shí)現(xiàn)的第一個(gè)實(shí)質(zhì)性動(dòng)作,對于亞太區(qū)域一體化進(jìn)程具有里程碑式意義。因此,基于全球價(jià)值鏈背景研究FTAAP的貿(mào)易效應(yīng)具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文首先采用定性分析的方法分析亞太地區(qū)各成員國和地區(qū)貿(mào)易的歷史和現(xiàn)狀,并分別從貿(mào)易總額的角度和增加值貿(mào)易的角度對貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)比較分析。研究結(jié)果表明,亞太自貿(mào)區(qū)各成員間的貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)互補(bǔ)性較強(qiáng),合作擁有較為堅(jiān)實(shí)的基礎(chǔ)。在理論分析的基礎(chǔ)上,本文運(yùn)用一般均衡模型——全球貿(mào)易分析模型(GTAP),對建立亞太自貿(mào)區(qū)的貿(mào).易效應(yīng)進(jìn)行預(yù)測,模擬自貿(mào)區(qū)建立后各成員在貿(mào)易規(guī)模、貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)、貿(mào)易條件、生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)、國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)以及經(jīng)濟(jì)福利等方面變化。理論上而言,亞太地區(qū)貿(mào)易迅速發(fā)展且擁有不斷發(fā)展的經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系,貿(mào)易產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)互補(bǔ)性強(qiáng)。從實(shí)證結(jié)果來看,自貿(mào)區(qū)建立以后,大部分成員的福利、國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值和貿(mào)易條件都會得到提高,進(jìn)出口也會增加。最為重要的是,對中國而言,加入亞太自貿(mào)區(qū)有利于促進(jìn)其相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)的升級,提高在全球價(jià)值鏈中的地位。因此,建立亞太自貿(mào)區(qū)不僅具有重要的戰(zhàn)略意義,而且有著現(xiàn)實(shí)的經(jīng)濟(jì)意義。
[Abstract]:With multilateral trade negotiations blocked, regional and bilateral free trade negotiations are becoming more and more popular around the world. The United States is also in line with the trend, leading the promotion of the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement (TTIP),) will undoubtedly create obstacles to China's deep integration into the global value chain. China is actively seeking free trade zones with other trading partners. The 24th Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders' informal meeting, which closed in November 2016, closed in Lima, Peru's capital. At the meeting, the leaders of the economies approved the "Asia-Pacific Free Trade area Collective Strategy study" and related policy recommendations submitted by the APEC Ministerial Conference as part of the Lima Declaration of the Asia-Pacific Free Trade area. This is the first substantive action that APEC economies achieve through collective action from vision to action in (FTAAP), and it is a milestone for the process of regional integration in Asia and the Pacific. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the trade effect of FTAAP based on the background of global value chain. In this paper, the history and present situation of trade among member countries and regions in the Asia-Pacific region are analyzed by qualitative analysis, and the trade structure is compared from the point of view of total trade volume and value added trade. The results show that the trade structure of the members of the Asia-Pacific Free Trade area is highly complementary and the cooperation has a solid foundation. On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper applies the global trade analysis model (GTAP), a general equilibrium model, to establish a free trade area in Asia and the Pacific. The changes of trade scale, trade structure, terms of trade, production structure, gross domestic product (GDP) and economic welfare were simulated after the establishment of the free trade zone. In theory, trade in the Asia-Pacific region develops rapidly and has a growing economic and trade relationship, and the structure of trade products is highly complementary. From the empirical results, after the establishment of the FTA, the welfare, GDP and terms of trade of most members will be improved, and the import and export will also increase. Most importantly, for China, joining the Asia Pacific Free Trade Zone will help promote the upgrading of its related industries and enhance its position in the global value chain. Therefore, the establishment of Asia-Pacific Free Trade area not only has important strategic significance, but also has realistic economic significance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F746

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