【摘要】：近年來，空前繁榮的全球電子產(chǎn)品消費(fèi)熱潮產(chǎn)生大量的電子廢棄物，電子廢棄物回收處理的企業(yè)也越來越多，尤其是不正規(guī)的小作坊、小企業(yè)日益增加，這使正規(guī)企業(yè)的電子廢棄物回收比率一直處于比較低的狀態(tài)，而且電子廢棄物回收處理的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r一直沒有明顯的提升與改善。為了改變這種低迷的現(xiàn)狀，我們需要更加深入理解電子廢棄物回收系統(tǒng)的內(nèi)在演化機(jī)理，分析電子廢棄物回收處理系統(tǒng)未來的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)，以期為經(jīng)濟(jì)增效和技術(shù)進(jìn)步提供參考。 本文從系統(tǒng)演化的角度出發(fā)，運(yùn)用哈肯模型對(duì)電子廢棄物回收系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行建模，進(jìn)而分析系統(tǒng)演進(jìn)方式和演化機(jī)理。為了甄別出系統(tǒng)的序參量，，首先利用“投入產(chǎn)出”模型得出回收系統(tǒng)狀態(tài)變量的指標(biāo)集合，對(duì)各狀態(tài)變量指標(biāo)進(jìn)行定義與說明，并搜集各指標(biāo)的實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)，運(yùn)用熵權(quán)法計(jì)算出每個(gè)狀態(tài)變量對(duì)應(yīng)的綜合評(píng)價(jià)值（也就是各指標(biāo)的權(quán)重值）。按照計(jì)算出的綜合評(píng)價(jià)值數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)狀態(tài)變量在系統(tǒng)中的重要程度進(jìn)行從大到小排序。選取綜合評(píng)價(jià)值排名靠前，在系統(tǒng)中影響較大的三個(gè)狀態(tài)變量：正規(guī)企業(yè)回收率、回收處理成本、綜合處置率。 從電子廢棄物回收系統(tǒng)的演化機(jī)理出發(fā)，構(gòu)建出基于電子廢棄物回收系統(tǒng)的哈肯模型。根據(jù)哈肯模型絕熱近似的特性，以中國13個(gè)省市區(qū)的實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)為樣本，將熵權(quán)法得到的權(quán)重最高的三個(gè)狀態(tài)參量任選兩個(gè)帶入模型進(jìn)行試算驗(yàn)證，通過試算驗(yàn)證表明正規(guī)回收企業(yè)的回收率是控制電子廢棄物回收系統(tǒng)演化的序參量。 最后，根據(jù)之前試算驗(yàn)證的結(jié)果，選取正規(guī)企業(yè)回收率為序參量，綜合處置率為狀態(tài)參量進(jìn)行建模運(yùn)算，結(jié)合中國13省市區(qū)的實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)帶入模型運(yùn)算，可得我國電子廢棄物回收系統(tǒng)的未來演化狀態(tài)預(yù)測(cè)趨勢(shì)，由模型預(yù)測(cè)可以發(fā)現(xiàn)：我國各省市的電子廢棄物回收系統(tǒng)發(fā)展良莠不齊，總體發(fā)展趨勢(shì)不容樂觀，在未來8年時(shí)間里，各省市綜合處置率將會(huì)出現(xiàn)明顯下降，同時(shí)正規(guī)企業(yè)回收率一直處于平穩(wěn)狀態(tài)，并沒有顯著的提升。 所以，在提升正規(guī)企業(yè)回收率的同時(shí)也要重視綜合處置率的提高，注重電子廢棄物回收處理的產(chǎn)能提高。對(duì)不發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)提高重視程度，建設(shè)偏遠(yuǎn)地區(qū)的電子廢棄物回收處理基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。通過技術(shù)創(chuàng)新與結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)來提高電子廢棄物的回收處理能力，更好地發(fā)揮電子廢棄物回收系統(tǒng)正規(guī)企業(yè)回收率與綜合處置率的協(xié)同作用，推進(jìn)電子廢棄物回收處理系統(tǒng)從無序向有序演化。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the unprecedented boom in the global consumption of electronic products has produced a large amount of e-waste, and more enterprises are recycling and disposing of electronic wastes, especially in informal small workshops, and small enterprises are increasing day by day. This makes the electronic waste recovery ratio of the formal enterprises in a relatively low state, and the development of electronic waste recycling treatment has not been significantly improved. In order to change the present situation, we need to understand the internal evolution mechanism of e-waste recovery system and analyze the development trend of e-waste recovery system in the future, in order to provide reference for economic efficiency and technological progress. In this paper, from the point of view of system evolution, we use Harken model to model the electronic waste recovery system, and then analyze the evolution mode and evolution mechanism of the system. In order to identify the order parameters of the system, the index set of the state variables of the recovery system is obtained by using the "input-output" model, the indexes of each state variable are defined and explained, and the actual data of each index are collected. The entropy weight method is used to calculate the comprehensive evaluation value corresponding to each state variable (that is, the weight value of each index). The importance of state variables in the system is sorted from large to small according to the calculated data of comprehensive evaluation value. There are three state variables that have great influence in the system: recovery rate of formal enterprise, cost of recovery treatment and comprehensive disposal rate. Based on the evolution mechanism of electronic waste recovery system, a Harken model based on electronic waste recovery system is constructed. According to the characteristics of the Hacken model adiabatic approximation, taking the actual data from 13 provinces and municipalities in China as the sample, two of the three state parameters with the highest weight obtained by the entropy weight method are chosen to be brought into the model for trial calculation. The experimental results show that the recovery rate is the order parameter to control the evolution of the electronic waste recovery system. Finally, according to the results of pre-trial calculation, the formal enterprise recovery rate is selected as the order parameter, the comprehensive disposal rate is used as the state parameter to model the operation, and the actual data of 13 provinces and municipalities in China are combined with the actual data to be brought into the model operation. The prediction trend of the future evolution state of electronic waste recovery system in China can be obtained. From the model prediction, it can be found that the development of electronic waste recovery system in various provinces and cities of our country is mixed, the overall development trend is not optimistic, in the next 8 years, The comprehensive disposal rate of each province and city will decrease obviously, and the recovery rate of the formal enterprise will be stable, and there will be no significant improvement. Therefore, in order to improve the recovery rate of the formal enterprises, we should pay attention to the improvement of the comprehensive disposal rate and the productivity of the recycling and disposal of electronic wastes. We should pay more attention to the undeveloped areas and build the electronic waste recovery and treatment infrastructure in remote areas. Through technological innovation and structural upgrading to improve the capacity of e-waste recovery and treatment, and better play the e-waste recovery system of the formal enterprise recovery and comprehensive disposal rate of synergy, Promote the electronic waste recovery and treatment system from disorder to orderly evolution.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：杭州電子科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：X705;F713.2

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