本文選題：價格貿(mào)易條件 + 技術進步　； 參考：《寧波大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：貿(mào)易條件是用來衡量在一定時期內(nèi)一個國家出口相對于進口的盈利能力和貿(mào)易利益的指標,反映該國的對外貿(mào)易狀況。本文通過對我國1981年至2012年總價格貿(mào)易條件指數(shù)的測算,發(fā)現(xiàn)計算期內(nèi)我國貿(mào)易條件指數(shù)并非完全惡化,而是呈現(xiàn)出截去兩端的正弦波形變化趨勢。考慮到實際出口商品的情況十分復雜,本文創(chuàng)新性的按照技術含量高低將我國進出口商品進行分類,分別測算其貿(mào)易條件的變化趨勢以確定本國的優(yōu)勢產(chǎn)業(yè)。此基礎上,本文通過選取引起貿(mào)易條件變化的典型因素,并對其作用系數(shù)進行比較研究,為下一步我國外貿(mào)轉(zhuǎn)型、產(chǎn)業(yè)結構升級提供理論依據(jù)與數(shù)據(jù)支持。引起貿(mào)易條件變化的因素很多,本文將重點放在技術進步對我國價格貿(mào)易條件的影響上。理論部分,分別從國家類型、技術進步類別和內(nèi)生、外生型技術進步出發(fā),對技術進步影響貿(mào)易條件的理論發(fā)展做了回顧,并對技術進步對一國貿(mào)易條件的影響機制進行了分析;實證部分,借助分位數(shù)回歸與狀態(tài)空間模型,分別研究了技術進步對不同水平貿(mào)易條件的影響效應,以及歷年來我國技術進步對價格貿(mào)易條件變化的影響,發(fā)現(xiàn)技術進步有助于貿(mào)易條件的改善,尤其當貿(mào)易條件處于較高水平時,效果最為明顯,而技術進步的程度對貿(mào)易條件的影響效應也表現(xiàn)出一定的動態(tài)變化性。此外,本文選取了經(jīng)濟增長、FDI、勞動生產(chǎn)率等指標作為影響貿(mào)易條件的輔助因素,使研究更加全面、準確。依據(jù)實證結果,本文認為要改善我國貿(mào)易條件,實現(xiàn)外貿(mào)轉(zhuǎn)型升級,應該加大產(chǎn)品的研發(fā)與創(chuàng)新力度,進一步提高產(chǎn)品的核心競爭力,要繼續(xù)維持比較優(yōu)勢產(chǎn)業(yè)出口,逐步調(diào)整高科技產(chǎn)業(yè)領域,同時應有選擇、有計劃的引進外資,提高外資利用效率。
[Abstract]:Terms of trade are used to measure the profitability and trade benefits of a country's exports relative to imports for a certain period of time, reflecting the country's foreign trade situation. Based on the calculation of China's total price terms of trade index from 1981 to 2012, it is found that the terms of trade index in China does not deteriorate completely during the calculation period, but shows a sinusoidal wave trend of truncation. Considering the complexity of the actual export commodities, this paper innovatively classifies China's import and export commodities according to the technical content, and calculates the changing trend of its terms of trade to determine its superior industries. On this basis, this paper selects the typical factors that cause the change of the terms of trade, and makes a comparative study of its function coefficient, which provides theoretical basis and data support for the next step of China's foreign trade transformation and industrial structure upgrading. There are many factors that cause the change of terms of trade. This paper focuses on the influence of technological progress on the terms of trade of our country. In the theoretical part, starting from the types of countries, categories of technological progress and endogenous and exogenous technological progress, the author reviews the theoretical development of the influence of technological progress on the terms of trade. In the empirical part, with the help of quantile regression and state space model, the effects of technological progress on different levels of terms of trade are studied. And the influence of China's technological progress on the change of price terms of trade over the years, it is found that technological progress contributes to the improvement of the terms of trade, especially when the terms of trade are at a higher level, the effect is the most obvious. The influence of technological progress on the terms of trade is also dynamic. In addition, this paper selects economic growth FDI, labor productivity and other indicators as auxiliary factors to influence the terms of trade, making the research more comprehensive and accurate. According to the empirical results, in order to improve China's trade conditions and realize the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade, we should increase the R & D and innovation of products, further improve the core competitiveness of products, and continue to maintain the comparative advantage of industrial exports. We should gradually adjust the field of high-tech industry, at the same time, we should choose to introduce foreign capital in a planned way and improve the efficiency of foreign capital utilization.
【學位授予單位】：寧波大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F752.67

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本文編號：2061992