本文選題：進出口商品結構 + 進出口商品結構合理性��； 參考：《燕山大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：進出口商品結構對一個國家或者地區(qū)對外貿易的發(fā)展以及經濟的發(fā)展至關重要。本文以山東省進出口商品結構能否促進地區(qū)經濟增長和能否促進地區(qū)產業(yè)結構升級為評價山東省進出口商品結構合理性的標準,通過實證分析,判斷出山東省進出口商品結構的合理性,并且對優(yōu)化山東省進出口商品結構提出建議。首先對山東省進出口商品結構的現狀,以及近十年進出口商品結構的演進趨勢進行了深入的分析。研究表明,山東省出口商品結構有了良好改善,出口的高新技術產品以及機電產品不斷增加,進口商品結構還存在不足,進口的先進技術和關鍵設備不足。其次,運用灰色關聯(lián)分析法計算出山東省不同進出口商品種類與山東省經濟增長之間的關聯(lián)度,計算結果發(fā)現高新技術產品的出口對經濟的促進作用超過紡織服裝品,高新技術產品以及機電產品的進口對經濟增長的促進作用較大。再次,運用協(xié)整檢驗以及格蘭杰因果關系檢驗法分析了初級產品的進出口與山東省第一產業(yè)發(fā)展的關系以及工業(yè)制成品的進出口與第二產業(yè)發(fā)展的關系,檢驗結果發(fā)現初級產品的出口對于第一產業(yè)以及工業(yè)制成品的出口對于第二產業(yè)發(fā)展的促進作用不明顯,而且初級產品的進口對于第一產業(yè)以及工業(yè)制成品的進口對于第二產業(yè)的發(fā)展具有負面影響。最后根據實證分析結果找出山東省進出口商品結構發(fā)展中存在的不合理地方,并且為優(yōu)化山東省進出口商品結構提出建議。
[Abstract]:The structure of import and export commodities is very important to the development of foreign trade and economy of a country or region. Based on the criteria of whether the structure of import and export commodities in Shandong Province can promote regional economic growth and promote the upgrading of regional industrial structure, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the rationality of the structure of import and export commodities in Shandong Province. The rationality of the structure of import and export commodities in Shandong Province is judged, and some suggestions for optimizing the structure of import and export commodities in Shandong Province are put forward. Firstly, the present situation of the structure of import and export commodities in Shandong Province and the evolution trend of the structure of import and export commodities in recent ten years are analyzed deeply. The research shows that the structure of export commodities of Shandong Province has been improved well, the export of high-tech products and mechanical and electrical products has been increasing, the structure of imported commodities is still insufficient, and the import of advanced technology and key equipment is insufficient. Secondly, the correlation degree between different kinds of import and export commodities in Shandong Province and economic growth of Shandong Province is calculated by using grey correlation analysis. The results show that the export of high-tech products has more promoting effect on the economy than textile and clothing products. The import of high-tech products and mechanical and electrical products has played a greater role in promoting economic growth. Thirdly, by using co-integration test and Granger causality test, this paper analyzes the relationship between primary product import and export and the development of primary industry in Shandong Province, and between the import and export of manufactured goods and the development of secondary industry. The results showed that the export of primary products to the primary industry and the export of manufactured goods to the secondary industry did not promote the development of the secondary industry. Moreover, the import of primary products has a negative impact on the development of the secondary industry. Finally, based on the results of empirical analysis, this paper finds out the unreasonable places in the development of the structure of import and export commodities in Shandong Province, and puts forward some suggestions for optimizing the structure of import and export commodities in Shandong Province.
【學位授予單位】：燕山大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F752.8

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本文編號：2002494