本文選題：人民幣國際化 + 匯率變動�。� 參考：《廣西師范學院》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：縱觀當前世界經濟的發(fā)展軌跡,全球化依舊是當前世界經濟發(fā)展的必然趨勢,如果自由貿易區(qū)的區(qū)域合作代表著全球化的開啟,那么20世紀90年代便是人民幣國際化的開端之年。人民幣國際化進程起始于20世紀90年代,起初是由于邊境貿易快速發(fā)展所導致的“被動”結果。特別是2008年爆發(fā)的國際金融危機更加充分的暴露了人民幣非國際化的局限性。2009年7月,國內五座城市正式啟動了跨境貿易人民幣結算業(yè)務,這也代表著人民幣國際化的序幕正式拉開。近年來,人民幣國際化也取得了一些重大進展,毋庸置疑,人民幣國際化即是大勢所趨,也是中國的必然選擇。東盟地區(qū)因其優(yōu)越的地理位置、與中國密切的經濟聯(lián)系,加之中國-東盟貿易區(qū)提供的務實合作平臺,是中國進行人民幣國際化的首選區(qū)域,因此,研究如何依托中國-東盟自由貿易區(qū),在中國與東盟的經濟合作中不斷推進人民幣國際化,是一個極具理論和現(xiàn)實意義的課題。隨著經濟全球化的不斷深入,作為經濟全球化重要組成部分的金融全球化,特別是人民幣匯率問題和貿易問題的爭論,已經引起了學術界的廣泛關注。本文選擇了當前經濟的熱點問題——人民幣匯率變動對我國對外貿易進出口的影響問題作為切入點,參考國內外文獻,運用定性與定量分析、規(guī)范與實證分析相結合的模式對人民幣實際有效匯率變動與中國-東盟的貿易進出口的影響進行研究。由于東盟六國(印度尼西亞、馬來西亞、泰國、新加坡、越南和新加坡)的貿易額占東盟國家貿易總額的八成以上,因此,本文主要選取東盟六國為代表進行研究。本文首先分析了我國匯率變動對貿易的影響機制,其次通過對2005-2015年人民幣實際有效匯率和人民幣兌東盟六國雙邊匯率的變動情況以及中國-東盟貿易區(qū)的貿易現(xiàn)狀進行歸納分析,然后將貿易引力模型運用到中國與東盟貿易的定量分析中,利用2005-2015年的數(shù)據建立了包括人均GDP,距離等基本變量的貿易引力模型,并在此基礎上增加了人民幣兌東盟六國的雙邊加權匯率這一變量,從而得到擴展性的貿易引力模型。其次運用得到的這一模型來評價在人民幣國際化背景下人民幣匯率變動對東盟各國貿易進出口的影響情況。最后,基于上述分析的結果,本文從匯率政策、貿易政策和產業(yè)政策這三個方而對中國-東盟貿易的發(fā)展提出了相關政策建議。
[Abstract]:Throughout the current development trajectory of the world economy, globalization is still the inevitable trend of the current world economic development. If the regional cooperation in the free trade area represents the opening of globalization, So the 1990 s was the beginning year of RMB internationalization. The process of RMB internationalization began in the 1990s and was initially a passive result of the rapid development of border trade. In particular, the international financial crisis broke out in 2008 more fully exposed the limitations of RMB non-internationalization. In July 2009, five cities in China officially launched cross-border trade RMB settlement business. This also represents the prelude of RMB internationalization. In recent years, RMB internationalization has also made some significant progress. Undoubtedly, RMB internationalization is not only the trend of the times, but also the inevitable choice of China. Because of its superior geographical location, close economic ties with China, and the practical cooperation platform provided by the China-ASEAN Trade area, ASEAN region is the preferred region for China to internationalize the renminbi. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study how to promote the internationalization of RMB in the economic cooperation between China and ASEAN on the basis of China-ASEAN Free Trade area. With the deepening of economic globalization, financial globalization as an important part of economic globalization, especially the issue of RMB exchange rate and trade issues, has attracted extensive attention in academic circles. This paper chooses the hot issue of the current economy, the influence of RMB exchange rate change on China's foreign trade import and export, as a starting point, referring to domestic and foreign literature, using qualitative and quantitative analysis. This paper studies the influence of the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the trade import and export between China and ASEAN by the combination of normative and empirical analysis. Since the trade volume of the six ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam and Singapore) accounts for more than 80% of the total trade volume of ASEAN countries, this paper mainly selects the six ASEAN countries as the representative of the study. This paper first analyzes the influence mechanism of China's exchange rate changes on trade. Secondly, through the analysis of the real effective exchange rate of RMB from 2005 to 2015 and the change of RMB / ASEAN bilateral exchange rate, as well as the current trade situation of China-ASEAN Trade area, Then the trade gravity model is applied to the quantitative analysis of the trade between China and ASEAN, and the trade gravity model, which includes the basic variables such as per capita GDP, distance and so on, is established by using the data from 2005 to 2015. On this basis, the bilateral weighted exchange rate of RMB against ASEAN six countries is added, and the extended trade gravity model is obtained. Secondly, this model is used to evaluate the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on ASEAN countries' trade imports and exports under the background of RMB internationalization. Finally, based on the results of the above analysis, this paper puts forward some policy recommendations on the development of China-ASEAN trade from three aspects: exchange rate policy, trade policy and industrial policy.
【學位授予單位】：廣西師范學院
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.6;F752

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