發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-21 12:15

  本文選題：人民幣國(guó)際化 + 匯率變動(dòng)�。� 參考：《廣西師范學(xué)院》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：縱觀當(dāng)前世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展軌跡,全球化依舊是當(dāng)前世界經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的必然趨勢(shì),如果自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的區(qū)域合作代表著全球化的開(kāi)啟,那么20世紀(jì)90年代便是人民幣國(guó)際化的開(kāi)端之年。人民幣國(guó)際化進(jìn)程起始于20世紀(jì)90年代,起初是由于邊境貿(mào)易快速發(fā)展所導(dǎo)致的“被動(dòng)”結(jié)果。特別是2008年爆發(fā)的國(guó)際金融危機(jī)更加充分的暴露了人民幣非國(guó)際化的局限性。2009年7月,國(guó)內(nèi)五座城市正式啟動(dòng)了跨境貿(mào)易人民幣結(jié)算業(yè)務(wù),這也代表著人民幣國(guó)際化的序幕正式拉開(kāi)。近年來(lái),人民幣國(guó)際化也取得了一些重大進(jìn)展,毋庸置疑,人民幣國(guó)際化即是大勢(shì)所趨,也是中國(guó)的必然選擇。東盟地區(qū)因其優(yōu)越的地理位置、與中國(guó)密切的經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)系,加之中國(guó)-東盟貿(mào)易區(qū)提供的務(wù)實(shí)合作平臺(tái),是中國(guó)進(jìn)行人民幣國(guó)際化的首選區(qū)域,因此,研究如何依托中國(guó)-東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū),在中國(guó)與東盟的經(jīng)濟(jì)合作中不斷推進(jìn)人民幣國(guó)際化,是一個(gè)極具理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義的課題。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的不斷深入,作為經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化重要組成部分的金融全球化,特別是人民幣匯率問(wèn)題和貿(mào)易問(wèn)題的爭(zhēng)論,已經(jīng)引起了學(xué)術(shù)界的廣泛關(guān)注。本文選擇了當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)的熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題——人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易進(jìn)出口的影響問(wèn)題作為切入點(diǎn),參考國(guó)內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn),運(yùn)用定性與定量分析、規(guī)范與實(shí)證分析相結(jié)合的模式對(duì)人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率變動(dòng)與中國(guó)-東盟的貿(mào)易進(jìn)出口的影響進(jìn)行研究。由于東盟六國(guó)(印度尼西亞、馬來(lái)西亞、泰國(guó)、新加坡、越南和新加坡)的貿(mào)易額占東盟國(guó)家貿(mào)易總額的八成以上,因此,本文主要選取東盟六國(guó)為代表進(jìn)行研究。本文首先分析了我國(guó)匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)貿(mào)易的影響機(jī)制,其次通過(guò)對(duì)2005-2015年人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率和人民幣兌東盟六國(guó)雙邊匯率的變動(dòng)情況以及中國(guó)-東盟貿(mào)易區(qū)的貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行歸納分析,然后將貿(mào)易引力模型運(yùn)用到中國(guó)與東盟貿(mào)易的定量分析中,利用2005-2015年的數(shù)據(jù)建立了包括人均GDP,距離等基本變量的貿(mào)易引力模型,并在此基礎(chǔ)上增加了人民幣兌東盟六國(guó)的雙邊加權(quán)匯率這一變量,從而得到擴(kuò)展性的貿(mào)易引力模型。其次運(yùn)用得到的這一模型來(lái)評(píng)價(jià)在人民幣國(guó)際化背景下人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)東盟各國(guó)貿(mào)易進(jìn)出口的影響情況。最后,基于上述分析的結(jié)果,本文從匯率政策、貿(mào)易政策和產(chǎn)業(yè)政策這三個(gè)方而對(duì)中國(guó)-東盟貿(mào)易的發(fā)展提出了相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:Throughout the current development trajectory of the world economy, globalization is still the inevitable trend of the current world economic development. If the regional cooperation in the free trade area represents the opening of globalization, So the 1990 s was the beginning year of RMB internationalization. The process of RMB internationalization began in the 1990s and was initially a passive result of the rapid development of border trade. In particular, the international financial crisis broke out in 2008 more fully exposed the limitations of RMB non-internationalization. In July 2009, five cities in China officially launched cross-border trade RMB settlement business. This also represents the prelude of RMB internationalization. In recent years, RMB internationalization has also made some significant progress. Undoubtedly, RMB internationalization is not only the trend of the times, but also the inevitable choice of China. Because of its superior geographical location, close economic ties with China, and the practical cooperation platform provided by the China-ASEAN Trade area, ASEAN region is the preferred region for China to internationalize the renminbi. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study how to promote the internationalization of RMB in the economic cooperation between China and ASEAN on the basis of China-ASEAN Free Trade area. With the deepening of economic globalization, financial globalization as an important part of economic globalization, especially the issue of RMB exchange rate and trade issues, has attracted extensive attention in academic circles. This paper chooses the hot issue of the current economy, the influence of RMB exchange rate change on China's foreign trade import and export, as a starting point, referring to domestic and foreign literature, using qualitative and quantitative analysis. This paper studies the influence of the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the trade import and export between China and ASEAN by the combination of normative and empirical analysis. Since the trade volume of the six ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam and Singapore) accounts for more than 80% of the total trade volume of ASEAN countries, this paper mainly selects the six ASEAN countries as the representative of the study. This paper first analyzes the influence mechanism of China's exchange rate changes on trade. Secondly, through the analysis of the real effective exchange rate of RMB from 2005 to 2015 and the change of RMB / ASEAN bilateral exchange rate, as well as the current trade situation of China-ASEAN Trade area, Then the trade gravity model is applied to the quantitative analysis of the trade between China and ASEAN, and the trade gravity model, which includes the basic variables such as per capita GDP, distance and so on, is established by using the data from 2005 to 2015. On this basis, the bilateral weighted exchange rate of RMB against ASEAN six countries is added, and the extended trade gravity model is obtained. Secondly, this model is used to evaluate the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on ASEAN countries' trade imports and exports under the background of RMB internationalization. Finally, based on the results of the above analysis, this paper puts forward some policy recommendations on the development of China-ASEAN trade from three aspects: exchange rate policy, trade policy and industrial policy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣西師范學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F752

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 朱林鋒;;簡(jiǎn)析匯率改革后人民幣匯率升值對(duì)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易的影響[J];中國(guó)市場(chǎng);2013年22期

2 周曄;雷云芳;;人民幣匯率波動(dòng)是否影響我國(guó)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易——基于中日貿(mào)易的經(jīng)驗(yàn)分析[J];西安財(cái)經(jīng)學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2013年02期

3 賈尚暉;劉燁龍;;人民幣實(shí)際匯率波動(dòng)與中國(guó)對(duì)美進(jìn)出口問(wèn)題的實(shí)證探究[J];數(shù)學(xué)的實(shí)踐與認(rèn)識(shí);2013年01期

4 姚鳳芹;;人民幣匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易的影響[J];中國(guó)商貿(mào);2012年34期

5 李天鋒;;人民幣實(shí)際匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)中日雙邊貿(mào)易影響的動(dòng)態(tài)效應(yīng)分析[J];新金融;2011年10期

6 王凱;龐震;潘穎;;人民幣實(shí)際匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)中國(guó)貿(mào)易影響的實(shí)證分析[J];金融理論與實(shí)踐;2011年01期

7 聶世坤;胥清學(xué);;人民幣兌日元匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)中日貿(mào)易影響的實(shí)證分析[J];傳承;2010年36期

8 畢玉江;;人民幣匯率變動(dòng)與我國(guó)貿(mào)易順差構(gòu)成——基于不同貿(mào)易主體的實(shí)證研究[J];上海立信會(huì)計(jì)學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2010年06期

9 盧中原;隆國(guó)強(qiáng);李建偉;王彤;;人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)出口的直接影響[J];中國(guó)經(jīng)貿(mào);2010年07期

10 李文懿;;淺議人民幣匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)中國(guó)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易的影響[J];財(cái)經(jīng)界(學(xué)術(shù)版);2010年05期

，

本文編號(hào)：1919145