本文選題：中國——海合會自由貿(mào)易區(qū) + 經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)�。� 參考：《云南財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化盛行的今天,各國都在積極尋找途徑與別國建立良好的經(jīng)貿(mào)合作關(guān)系,以更好的參與到世界市場中。WTO多哈回合談判受阻,多邊合作難以實(shí)現(xiàn)使得許多國家紛紛開始尋找合作伙伴建立雙邊合作框架。雖然中國的雙邊自貿(mào)區(qū)談判起步較晚,但是現(xiàn)在越來越受到重視,政府更是在十七大報告中把建立自由貿(mào)易區(qū)談判上升到了戰(zhàn)略高度。目前,我國已經(jīng)簽署13個自貿(mào)協(xié)定,共涉及22個國家和地區(qū),有9個自貿(mào)區(qū)正在談判,6個自貿(mào)區(qū)正在研究。海合會除了與同為阿拉伯國家的黎巴嫩和敘利亞簽訂自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定以外,還積極推動與阿拉伯國家以外的國家或地區(qū)的自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定談判,現(xiàn)在正在談判的國家有歐盟、日本、中國、印度、巴基斯坦和土耳其等國家。中國與海合會都把中國-海合會自由貿(mào)易區(qū)當(dāng)作重點(diǎn)談判對象。海合會位于海灣地區(qū),六個成員國均擁有巨大的原油儲量與天然氣資源,是世界上主要的能源出口國。中海自貿(mào)區(qū)的建立不僅可以保證充足穩(wěn)定的原油進(jìn)口,而且也能平衡雙方的貿(mào)易逆差為我國企業(yè)帶來經(jīng)濟(jì)利益。本文將運(yùn)用全球貿(mào)易分析模型(GTAP),結(jié)合遞推動態(tài)方法,對自由貿(mào)易區(qū)談判的各種可能的結(jié)果進(jìn)行模擬,并根據(jù)模擬結(jié)果分析自貿(mào)區(qū)的建立對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、進(jìn)出口、社會福利和各產(chǎn)業(yè)生產(chǎn)率等方面帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)。本文的模擬分為四種方案,方案一是中國與海合會建立自由貿(mào)易區(qū),且所有商品關(guān)稅為零;方案二是中國與海合會建立自由貿(mào)易區(qū),石化產(chǎn)品關(guān)稅降低50%,其他商品關(guān)稅為零;方案三是中國、印度、日本都與海合會建立自由貿(mào)易區(qū),所有商品關(guān)稅為零;方案四是中國、印度、日本都與海合會建立自由貿(mào)易區(qū),海合會對中國出口石化產(chǎn)品關(guān)稅降低50%,其余商品關(guān)稅為零。通過分析想要實(shí)現(xiàn)以下研究目的:第一,石化產(chǎn)品的關(guān)稅是否會影響中國—海合會自貿(mào)區(qū)談判的效果;第二,在這四種方案下我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)變動是怎樣的,我國應(yīng)該怎樣應(yīng)對。本文依據(jù)導(dǎo)言—理論分析—數(shù)據(jù)分析—結(jié)論的邏輯線路進(jìn)行論述。在第一部分論述了中海自貿(mào)區(qū)建立的背景和本文的研究意義,并將學(xué)者們在經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化理論、中國與海合會經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系和GTAP模型等方面做的研究進(jìn)行了總結(jié)。第二部分對區(qū)域一體化理論中的自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的理論基礎(chǔ)進(jìn)行了論述,介紹了用GTAP模型來模擬建立自貿(mào)區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)的原理。第三部分是關(guān)于海合會六國概況、中國和海合會的經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系的介紹。第四部分是利用第八版的GTAP模型對以上提到的四種方案進(jìn)行模擬,對模擬結(jié)果從各國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、進(jìn)出口變動、福利水平的變動、各產(chǎn)業(yè)生產(chǎn)率的角度進(jìn)行了分析。第五部分是基于分析結(jié)果提出的一些建議。第六部分是對全文進(jìn)行的總結(jié)。
[Abstract]:With the prevalence of global economic integration, all countries are actively looking for ways to establish good economic and trade cooperation with other countries in order to better participate in the Doha Round negotiations in the world market. Multilateral cooperation is difficult to achieve, so many countries are looking for partners to establish bilateral cooperation framework. Although China's bilateral free trade zone negotiations started late, they have been paid more and more attention, and the government has raised the negotiations on the establishment of a free trade zone to a strategic level in the report of the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. At present, China has signed 13 free trade agreements, involving 22 countries and regions, 9 free trade zones are under negotiation and 6 free trade areas are under study. In addition to signing free trade agreements with Lebanon and Syria, which are Arab States, GCC is also actively promoting negotiations on free trade agreements with countries other than Arab countries or regions. Currently, the countries under negotiation are the European Union, Japan, China, India, Pakistan, Turkey and other countries. Both China and GCC have made China-GCC Free Trade area a key negotiating point. The GCC, located in the Gulf region, is the world's leading energy exporter with vast reserves of crude oil and natural gas. The establishment of China Shipping Free Trade Zone can not only guarantee sufficient and stable crude oil imports, but also balance the trade deficit between the two sides, which will bring economic benefits to Chinese enterprises. In this paper, the global trade analysis model (GTAP) is used to simulate the possible results of the free trade area negotiations, and the establishment of the free trade zone is used to analyze the economic development, import and export of our country. The economic effects of social welfare and the productivity of various industries. The simulation of this paper is divided into four schemes: one is to establish a free trade zone with GCC, and the other is to establish a free trade zone with GCC, and the tariff on petrochemical products will be reduced by 50%, and the tariff on other commodities will be zero. The third option is that China, India and Japan will all establish a free trade zone with the GCC, with zero tariffs on all commodities. Option four is that China, India, and Japan will all establish a free trade zone with the GCC. GCC's duty on China's exports of petrochemical products reduced by 50 cents, the rest of the tariff is zero. The purpose of this study is as follows: first, whether the tariff of petrochemical products will affect the effect of the negotiation of the China-GCC Free Trade area; second, what is the economic change of our country under these four schemes, and how should our country deal with it? This paper discusses the logic circuit of introduction-theoretical analysis-data analysis-conclusion. In the first part, the background of the establishment of China Sea Free Trade area and the significance of this paper are discussed, and the scholars' research on economic integration theory, economic and trade relationship between China and GCC and GTAP model are summarized. The second part discusses the theoretical basis of free trade area in the theory of regional integration, and introduces the principle of using GTAP model to simulate the economic effect of establishing free trade area. The third part is an introduction to the six GCC countries and the economic and trade relations between China and GCC. The fourth part is to use the eighth edition of the GTAP model to simulate the above mentioned four schemes, the simulation results from the economic growth, import and export changes, changes in welfare levels, the perspective of the productivity of various industries are analyzed. The fifth part is based on the analysis of the results of some recommendations. The sixth part is the summary of the full text.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F752

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