本文選題：貿(mào)易條件 + 貨幣波動(dòng)性��； 參考：《北京外國語大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：中國加入世界貿(mào)易組織以來,對外貿(mào)易連續(xù)多年實(shí)現(xiàn)較快發(fā)展。作為拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的三駕馬車之一,對外貿(mào)易的發(fā)展對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)是十分巨大的。但是我國對外貿(mào)易整體出現(xiàn)大而不強(qiáng)的局面,長期處于國際分工價(jià)值鏈的低端,加之出口企業(yè)的惡性價(jià)格競爭等因素,使我國的貿(mào)易條件長期處于惡化的趨勢。在這樣的背景下,研究貿(mào)易條件的影響因素有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義,有助于政府從宏觀政策層面權(quán)衡利弊,探索改善我國的貿(mào)易條件之道。 本文首先對貿(mào)易條件問題的前期研究成果進(jìn)行梳理和總結(jié),把我國的貿(mào)易條件現(xiàn)狀與世界其他國家相比較,發(fā)現(xiàn)我國的價(jià)格貿(mào)易條件明顯低于世界其他國家和地區(qū),且出現(xiàn)顯著惡化的趨勢,然后對影響我國價(jià)格貿(mào)易條件的主要因素進(jìn)行理論分析,在理論分析的基礎(chǔ)上采用實(shí)證研究的方法,利用世界銀行、國際貨幣基金組織等數(shù)據(jù)庫,搜集整理了41個(gè)國家從2003年至2011年的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),通過建立面板數(shù)據(jù)的計(jì)量模型,除了考察關(guān)稅、勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率、FDI、匯率等傳統(tǒng)影響因素以外,創(chuàng)新性得引入貨幣波動(dòng)性這一外部環(huán)境因素,以期考察貨幣供給沖擊是否會(huì)影響一國的貿(mào)易條件,以及影響的程度如何。最后,根據(jù)實(shí)證研究的結(jié)果給出相應(yīng)的政策建議。 本文有諸多創(chuàng)新之處。首先,在研究視角方面,首次引入貨幣波動(dòng)性這一外部環(huán)境因素進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究。拓展了貿(mào)易條件問題的研究范圍。其次,在數(shù)據(jù)選取上,以往的研究多采用時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù),本文通過世界銀行等國際組織的數(shù)據(jù)庫采用面板數(shù)據(jù),樣本容量涵蓋了世界主要的國家和地區(qū)。再次,在研究方法上,無論是檢驗(yàn)的方法還是實(shí)證分析的思路,都力求全面詳細(xì)準(zhǔn)確,除了常規(guī)的異方差、自相關(guān)和多重共線的檢驗(yàn),還運(yùn)用了豪斯曼檢驗(yàn)來判斷固定效應(yīng)和隨機(jī)效應(yīng),并且用不同方法進(jìn)行了五種估計(jì)。
[Abstract]:Since China joined WTO, foreign trade has been developing rapidly for many years. As one of the troika to stimulate economic growth, the development of foreign trade contributes greatly to the economic growth of our country. However, the overall situation of China's foreign trade is large and not strong, it is in the low end of the international division of labor value chain for a long time, coupled with the vicious price competition of export enterprises and other factors, the terms of trade of our country have been deteriorating for a long time. Under this background, it is of great practical significance to study the influencing factors of terms of trade, which is helpful for the government to weigh the pros and cons from the macro policy level and to explore the ways to improve the terms of trade of our country. In this paper, the preliminary research results of terms of trade are summarized and compared with other countries in the world. It is found that the terms of trade of our country are obviously lower than those of other countries and regions in the world. Then the main factors affecting the terms of trade of our country are analyzed theoretically. On the basis of the theoretical analysis, the empirical research method is adopted, and the databases such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund are used. Collect and collate the relevant data of 41 countries from 2003 to 2011. Through the establishment of panel data measurement model, besides examining the traditional factors such as tariff, labor productivity, FDI, exchange rate and other traditional factors, It is innovative to introduce the external environmental factor of currency volatility in order to investigate whether the impact of money supply shocks will affect a country's terms of trade and the extent of the impact. Finally, according to the results of empirical research, the corresponding policy recommendations are given. There are many innovations in this paper. Firstly, the external environmental factor of currency volatility is introduced for the first time. Expand the scope of research on terms of trade. Secondly, in the data selection, the previous research mostly uses the time series data, this article uses the panel data through the database of the World Bank and other international organizations, the sample size covers the main countries and regions of the world. Third, in the research methods, both the test method and the idea of empirical analysis, all strive to be comprehensive, detailed and accurate, in addition to the conventional heteroscedasticity, autocorrelation and multiple collinear test, The Hausmann test is also used to judge the fixed effect and random effect, and five kinds of estimations are carried out with different methods.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京外國語大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F752.6

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