本文選題：“一帶一路” + 國(guó)際貿(mào)易　； 參考：《吉林大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：改革開(kāi)放后,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)獲得了長(zhǎng)足的發(fā)展,當(dāng)前國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值已然位居世界第二。而中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展始終得益于中國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易的不斷擴(kuò)張和優(yōu)化。2008年金融危機(jī)發(fā)生后,全球消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)隨全球經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境一道出現(xiàn)了不斷惡化的現(xiàn)象。中國(guó)作為全球最大貿(mào)易國(guó),對(duì)外貿(mào)易導(dǎo)向型經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨著嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)。為了解決現(xiàn)實(shí)問(wèn)題,我國(guó)于2013年年末提出了“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略,2015年由多個(gè)部委聯(lián)合發(fā)表的文件明確了其核心目標(biāo),強(qiáng)調(diào)實(shí)現(xiàn)“貿(mào)易暢通”是策略的重中之重。東盟十國(guó)是“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略中“21世紀(jì)海上絲綢之路”的起點(diǎn),也是未來(lái)中美競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的前沿陣地,從地緣優(yōu)勢(shì)和國(guó)際戰(zhàn)略的角度考量,需要給于這片地區(qū)足夠的關(guān)注。從經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系角度考慮,東盟十國(guó)在進(jìn)入21世紀(jì)后不斷強(qiáng)化與我國(guó)的經(jīng)貿(mào)往來(lái),彼此的貿(mào)易量出現(xiàn)了快速的提升,2010年中國(guó)-東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)成立后,東盟超過(guò)日本成為我國(guó)第三大貿(mào)易伙伴,東盟國(guó)家已然成為影響我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易質(zhì)與量的重要部分。尋找能與東盟十國(guó)深化貿(mào)易合作的路徑具有深刻的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。自里昂惕夫之謎被提出后,產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易理論不斷發(fā)展,得到了眾多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的不斷補(bǔ)充。當(dāng)前學(xué)者也多以具有融合化性質(zhì)的產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易理論作為理論依據(jù),來(lái)解釋中國(guó)與東盟國(guó)家的貿(mào)易現(xiàn)象和問(wèn)題,這說(shuō)明“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略中除“貿(mào)易暢通”以外的其余“四通”會(huì)對(duì)“貿(mào)易暢通”產(chǎn)生影響。要素稟賦理論也對(duì)中國(guó)與東盟十國(guó)之間進(jìn)行產(chǎn)業(yè)間貿(mào)易提供了很好的解釋。本文首先詳盡地交待了研究背景和研究意義,來(lái)說(shuō)明研究中國(guó)與東盟十國(guó)彼此貿(mào)易合作路徑的必要性。并借助對(duì)已有文獻(xiàn)的梳理和對(duì)相關(guān)貿(mào)易理論的分析,為下文研究提供足夠的鋪墊;其次,將從正反兩個(gè)維度說(shuō)明中國(guó)與東盟十國(guó)的貿(mào)易合作現(xiàn)狀,且不僅要展現(xiàn)出彼此已獲得的貿(mào)易合作中可喜成果和可以進(jìn)一步合作的潛力空間,也著重強(qiáng)調(diào)彼此關(guān)系中存在一些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)會(huì)影響到貿(mào)易暢通的實(shí)現(xiàn),需要時(shí)刻警惕和妥善處理。再次,本文將分析中國(guó)與東盟十國(guó)的貿(mào)易相似性及其變化過(guò)程,并給于相應(yīng)的解釋,以便清晰地認(rèn)識(shí)中國(guó)同東盟國(guó)家進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大貿(mào)易額并最終可以實(shí)現(xiàn)貿(mào)易暢通的潛力空間。再?gòu)摹耙粠б宦贰睉?zhàn)略中提出的“五通”思想中選取影響因素,查找2005-2014十年跨度的中國(guó)與東盟十國(guó)貿(mào)易的面板數(shù)據(jù),并通過(guò)構(gòu)建合適的引力模型,觀察和解釋引力模型中各個(gè)自變量系數(shù)的結(jié)果,得到具有解釋力的實(shí)證依據(jù)。最后,根據(jù)引力模型反映的結(jié)果,結(jié)合“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略的實(shí)際內(nèi)容,給出中國(guó)與東盟十國(guó)可以進(jìn)一步深化貿(mào)易合作的思考與建議。
[Abstract]:After reform and opening up, China's economy has achieved considerable development, the current gross national product has ranked second in the world. China's economic development has always benefited from the continuous expansion and optimization of China's foreign trade. After the financial crisis of 2008, the global consumer market along with the global economic environment has been deteriorating. As the largest trading country in the world, China's foreign trade-oriented economy is facing severe challenges. In order to solve the practical problems, China put forward the "Belt and Road" strategy at the end of 2013. The document published jointly by many ministries and departments in 2015 defined its core goal and emphasized that "smooth trade" is the most important strategy. The ten ASEAN countries are the starting point of the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" in the "Belt and Road" strategy, and also the frontier position of the future competition between China and the United States. Considering the geographical advantages and international strategy, it is necessary to pay enough attention to this region. From the perspective of economic and trade relations, after entering the 21st century, the ten ASEAN countries have continuously strengthened their economic and trade contacts with China, and the volume of their trade has increased rapidly. After the establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade area in 2010, ASEAN has surpassed Japan as the third largest trading partner of China, and ASEAN countries have become an important part of the quality and quantity of China's foreign trade. It is of great practical significance to find a way to deepen trade cooperation with the ten ASEAN countries. Since Leontief's riddle was put forward, the theory of intra-industry trade has been continuously developed and supplemented by many economists. At present, scholars mostly use the theory of intra-industry trade with the nature of integration as the theoretical basis to explain the trade phenomena and problems between China and ASEAN countries. This shows that "Belt and Road" strategy in addition to "open trade" the rest of the "four links" will have an impact on "trade flow." The theory of factor endowment also provides a good explanation for the inter-industry trade between China and ASEAN. In this paper, the background and significance of the research are described in detail to illustrate the necessity of studying the trade cooperation path between China and ASEAN. And with the help of the existing literature and the analysis of the relevant trade theory, it provides sufficient groundwork for the following research; secondly, it will explain the current situation of trade cooperation between China and ASEAN from the positive and negative dimensions. And we should not only show the gratifying achievements and potential space of further cooperation, but also emphasize that some risks in our relationship will affect the realization of smooth trade, and we should always be vigilant and deal with them properly. Thirdly, this paper will analyze the trade similarity and its changing process between China and ASEAN countries, and give the corresponding explanation, so as to clearly understand the potential space of further expanding the trade volume between China and ASEAN countries and realizing the smooth trade finally. From the "five links" thought put forward by "Belt and Road" strategy, the paper selects the influencing factors, looks up the panel data of the trade between China and ASEAN ten years from 2005 to 2014, and constructs an appropriate gravity model. By observing and explaining the results of the coefficients of each independent variable in the gravitational model, the empirical basis with explanatory power is obtained. Finally, according to the result of gravity model and the actual content of Belt and Road's strategy, the paper puts forward some thoughts and suggestions that China and 10 ASEAN countries can further deepen their trade cooperation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F752.7

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