本文選題：電商供應(yīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)　切入點：需求預(yù)測　出處：《北京工業(yè)大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)時代,電子商務(wù)發(fā)展越來越快,在電商平臺上,如京東,亞馬遜,自營產(chǎn)品種類繁多,采購、交付活動頻發(fā),與上游供應(yīng)商和下游用戶組成的供應(yīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)越來越復(fù)雜。如何管理好電商供應(yīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)中的庫存,以期更大程度滿足用戶需求已成為電商供應(yīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)發(fā)展的目標(biāo)。電商供應(yīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的各個庫房除了要滿足服務(wù)區(qū)域的用戶需求,還需要支持其他庫房,通過庫存合作轉(zhuǎn)運來降低供應(yīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的庫存水平,提高用戶滿意度。文章主要針對電商供應(yīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)中快速消費類產(chǎn)品展開研究。對比分析市場需求預(yù)測方法的優(yōu)劣勢,選擇科學(xué)的需求預(yù)測方法�；谛枨箢A(yù)測,考慮隨機需求和庫存轉(zhuǎn)運機制,通過庫存配置和轉(zhuǎn)運研究電商供應(yīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的庫存策略和轉(zhuǎn)運策略。首先,從不同視角下對市場需求進行分析,歸納總結(jié)宏觀、中觀、微觀層次市場需求的特點,對比不同層次市場需求下幾種預(yù)測方法的優(yōu)劣勢。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)考慮購買量,點擊量,庫存量等因素,并根據(jù)節(jié)假日、交通、天氣等特殊情景進行分析調(diào)整構(gòu)建的綜合集成預(yù)測模型的效果最好,更能夠準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測宏觀和中觀市場需求,而BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)在預(yù)測波動性較小的微觀市場需求方面具有優(yōu)勢。其次,針對電商供應(yīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的支持城市,通過改進的K-means聚類和多屬性決策理論,基于最快滿足用戶需求準(zhǔn)則,確定最大降低庫存成本的庫房選址方案。并對比分析本文所提出的選址方案和A公司目前選址方案的差異性,對比庫存成本發(fā)現(xiàn)提出方案在理論上能夠能降低成本,提高用戶服務(wù)滿意度。再次,根據(jù)市場需求預(yù)測,基于存儲成本和缺貨損失風(fēng)險,得到庫房的最優(yōu)基本庫存策略,最大化企業(yè)利潤。同時,研究發(fā)現(xiàn)多庫房多產(chǎn)品情形下,當(dāng)發(fā)生缺貨時,通過庫存轉(zhuǎn)運策略可以協(xié)調(diào)供應(yīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)庫存水平,降低庫存成本,采用庫存轉(zhuǎn)運策略比不采用更能提高用戶服務(wù)和供應(yīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)利潤。結(jié)合A公司的實際數(shù)據(jù)進行實證分析,結(jié)果表明新的庫存選址方案在滿足用戶交貨服務(wù)的基礎(chǔ)上,降低了企業(yè)成本,同時縮短交貨周期,提高用戶服務(wù)體驗。通過庫存轉(zhuǎn)運機制,能更好的實現(xiàn)庫存均衡,減少庫存成本,提高用戶滿意度。
[Abstract]:The age of the Internet, electronic commerce develops more and more quickly, in the electronic business platform, such as Jingdong, Amazon, proprietary product variety, procurement, delivery and supply network activities frequently, with upstream suppliers and downstream users more complex. How to manage the electricity supply network inventory, to a greater extent in order to meet the needs of users electricity supply network has become the goal of development. Each warehouse supply network business in addition to meet the needs of users of the service area, also needs the support of other warehouse, to reduce the inventory level of supply network through inventory cooperation transshipment, improve customer satisfaction. This article mainly aims at fast consumer products business in the supply network is researched. A comparative analysis prediction method the market demand of the advantages and disadvantages, choose scientific methods of demand forecast. Based on demand forecasting, considering stochastic demand and inventory transport mechanism through the inventory coordination The transport of electricity supplier supply network inventory strategy and transport strategy. First of all, from the analysis of different perspectives on market demand, summed up the macro, meso and micro level market demand characteristics, several prediction methods of comparative advantages and disadvantages of different levels of market. The study found that the amount of clicks, consider purchasing, inventory factors so, according to the holidays, traffic, weather and other special situations for analysis of the integrated prediction model of the adjustment effect is the best, a more accurate prediction of macro and meso market demand, and the BP neural network has advantages in the micro market demand forecast volatility smaller. Secondly, according to the electricity supply network to support the city, by K-means improved clustering and multi attribute decision making theory, based on the criterion to determine the maximum to meet the needs of users, reduce the cost of inventory warehouse location scheme. And comparative analysis 鏈枃鎵，

本文編號：1619478