本文選題：雙重門限　切入點：Boostrap　出處：《太原理工大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：我國是一個農(nóng)業(yè)人口大國，解決三農(nóng)問題，是現(xiàn)代化進程中的重大任務。合理測度農(nóng)村居民福利水平是改善民生、服務三農(nóng)的重要前提。另外，物價變動是影響農(nóng)村居民福利水平的重要因素，研究物價變動對農(nóng)村居民福利水平的影響，為政府調節(jié)農(nóng)村居民福利水平提供科學依據(jù)，對改善農(nóng)村居民福利水平現(xiàn)狀具有重大的理論和實際價值。 本文依據(jù)福利經(jīng)濟理論，結合中國農(nóng)村居民特點構建了農(nóng)村居民福利水平統(tǒng)計指標體系，并進行了統(tǒng)計測算，借助面板數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計模型和面板門限的估計方法從消費、生產(chǎn)、銷售三個角度分析了物價變動對農(nóng)村居民福利水平的影響，基于Lucas的福利效用理論對物價變動造成的農(nóng)村居民福利損失進行了統(tǒng)計測算。選取了中國統(tǒng)計年鑒中2003-2013年31個省、直轄市、自治區(qū)的相關指標數(shù)據(jù)進行了實證分析。主要結論如下： （1）構建了農(nóng)村居民福利水平的統(tǒng)計指標體系，其中包括收入與消費水平、社會保障水平、醫(yī)療衛(wèi)生水平、農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)水平以及教育文化水平五個一級指標，每個一級指標各有兩個二級指標，指標間的冗余度和相關性較低，獨立性高。 （2）農(nóng)村居民福利水平指標的重要性隨著時期變化而有所不同，例如：2005-2006年農(nóng)村居民福利水平權重最大的指標是醫(yī)療衛(wèi)生水平，2007-2009年農(nóng)村居民福利水平權重最大的指標是社會保障水平。2010年以后，農(nóng)村居民福利水平權重最大的指標是教育文化水平。 （3）農(nóng)村居民消費價格指數(shù)（CPI）對農(nóng)村居民福利水平的影響存在門限效應，即：當CPI0.0002時，是所謂的通貨緊縮時期，，CPI變動對農(nóng)村居民福利影響是負向；當0.0002CPI0.036時，CPI變動對農(nóng)村居民福利水平影響是正向的；當CPI0.036時，CPI變動對農(nóng)村居民的福利影響是負向且負向效應系數(shù)約為-0.1415。 （4）物價變動對農(nóng)村居民福利水平存在著顯著影響，主要表現(xiàn)如下： ①農(nóng)村居民福利水平自身具有明顯的棘輪效應，即滯后一期的農(nóng)村居民福利平均水平對當期的農(nóng)村居民福利平均水平具有重要影響，影響系數(shù)約為0.8。 ②農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)資料價格變動對農(nóng)村居民福利平均水平存在負向影響，影響系數(shù)是-0.18，即生產(chǎn)資料價格變動1%個單位引起農(nóng)村居民福利平均水平變化0.18%個單位。 ③糧食類產(chǎn)品當期價格變動對農(nóng)村居民福利水平無明顯影響，滯后一期的價格變動對農(nóng)村居民福利水平存在正向影響，影響系數(shù)約是0.1，即糧食類商品滯后一期的價格變動1%個單位會引起農(nóng)村居民福利平均水平變化0.1%個單位。 ④利率變動對農(nóng)村居民福利平均水平有負向影響，且系數(shù)約為-0.03，即：利率每變化1個百分點會引起農(nóng)村居民福利平均水平變化0.03個百分點。 （5）物價變動造成農(nóng)村居民總體福利損失存在著較大的地區(qū)差異性，其中，最大的地區(qū)是北京市，最小地區(qū)是青海省，東部及西部部分省份總體福利損失較小，中部及西南地區(qū)總體福利損失較大。
[Abstract]:China is an agricultural country with a large population, solve the problem of agriculture, is a major task in the process of modernization. The welfare level of rural residents is a reasonable measure to improve people's livelihood, an important prerequisite for rural services. In addition, price fluctuation is an important factor affecting the welfare level of rural residents, on the impact of price fluctuation on the welfare level of rural residents, provide science the basis for the government to regulate the welfare level of rural residents, it has great theoretical and practical significance to improve the current situation of the welfare level of rural residents.
Based on the theory of welfare economics, establishes the statistical index system of welfare level of rural residents of rural residents with Chinese characteristics and statistical calculation, estimation method by using panel data statistical model and panel threshold from three aspects of consumption, production, sales of price changes on the welfare level of rural residents, rural residents welfare loss welfare utility theory of price changes caused by Lucas were carried out based on the statistical estimates. The Chinese statistical yearbook 2003-2013 years in 31 provinces, municipalities, autonomous regions of the relevant data for the empirical analysis. The main conclusions are as follows:
(1) establishes the statistical index system of welfare level of rural residents, including income and consumption level, the level of social security, health care, agricultural production level and educational level five level indicators, each first level index of each of the two level two indexes, low standard redundancy and correlation independent, high.
(2) the importance of welfare level index of rural residents with the period of change, for example: the maximum welfare level of rural residents weight indicators for 2005-2006 years is the health level of rural residents, the maximum level of welfare weights 2007-2009 years of social security level index is.2010 years later, the largest weight index level of rural residents' welfare is the level of education and culture.
(3) rural consumer price index (CPI) effect on welfare level of rural residents exists threshold effects, namely: when CPI0.0002, is called the period of deflation, CPI changes on the impact of rural residents' welfare is negative; when 0.0002CPI0.036, CPI changes on welfare level of rural residents is positive; when CPI0.036 CPI, changes in welfare effects of rural residents is negative and the negative effect coefficient is about -0.1415.
(4) the price changes have a significant impact on the welfare level of rural residents, the main manifestations are as follows:
(1) the welfare level of rural residents themselves has obvious ratcheting effect, that is, the average level of rural residents' welfare in a lag period has an important impact on the average welfare level of rural residents in the current period, and the influence coefficient is about 0.8..
(2) the price change of agricultural means of production has a negative impact on the average level of rural residents' welfare. The coefficient of influence is -0.18, that is, the 1% units of the price of producer goods change the average level of the rural residents' welfare to 0.18% units.
The current food products price changes have no significant effect on the welfare level of rural residents, the lagged price changes have a positive influence on the welfare level of rural residents, the influence coefficient is about 0.1, namely grain commodities lagged changes in the price of 1% units will cause the rural residents welfare average change of 0.1% units.
(4) interest rate change has a negative impact on the average level of rural residents' welfare, and the coefficient is about -0.03. That is, interest rate changes 1 percentage points, which will cause the rural residents' welfare average level to change by 0.03 percentage points.
(5) there are great regional differences in the total welfare loss of rural residents caused by price changes. The largest area is Beijing, the smallest area is Qinghai Province, the eastern and western parts of the province has a smaller total welfare loss, and the overall welfare loss in the central and southwest regions is relatively large.

【學位授予單位】：太原理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F726;F323.89;F224

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