本文選題：服務業(yè)　切入點：成本病　出處：《浙江大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：2008年始于美國并蔓延至全球的金融危機引發(fā)了世界范圍內(nèi)關于經(jīng)濟發(fā)展問題的思考,這次危機不僅僅是經(jīng)濟發(fā)展過程中的周期性因素所導致,還有較大部分是結構性因素使然。經(jīng)濟危機的緩解離不開經(jīng)濟結構的調(diào)整,調(diào)整經(jīng)濟結構在很大程度上是調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結構,這就使得服務業(yè)的重要地位日益凸顯。2014年,我國服務業(yè)發(fā)展迅速,服務業(yè)增加值占GDP的比重超過第二產(chǎn)業(yè),成為對經(jīng)濟增長貢獻最大的產(chǎn)業(yè)；同時,服務業(yè)吸納就業(yè)人數(shù)增長迅速,成為吸納就業(yè)最多的產(chǎn)業(yè)。服務業(yè)在我國經(jīng)濟和社會發(fā)展中的地位越來越重要。然而,服務業(yè)卻表現(xiàn)出勞動生產(chǎn)率增長滯后于第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的特征,這就使得對于服務業(yè)是否存在“成本病”問題的研究提上日程。本文以我國服務業(yè)為研究對象,將理論分析和實證分析相結合,對我國服務業(yè)是否存在“成本病”隱患及其福利效應進行相關研究。 在已有研究的基礎上,本文首先對國內(nèi)外相關文獻進行梳理,概括出服務業(yè)“成本病”的一般特征,進而構造包含價格、工資水平及產(chǎn)出的計量模型,運用投入及產(chǎn)出數(shù)據(jù)測度出服務業(yè)的勞動生產(chǎn)率及需求價格和收入彈性,從而測度服務業(yè)“成本病”的存在性。本文運用1999-2012年我國30個省市(除西藏)的面板數(shù)據(jù)進行回歸,實證結果表明無論是全國還是分地區(qū)層面我國都存在“成本病”隱患。此外,本文從價格效應和收入效應兩個方面分析了服務業(yè)“成本病”影響福利水平的一般機制,并從可標準化服務業(yè)與非標準化服務業(yè)兩個角度探討了服務業(yè)“成本病”影響福利水平的傳導路徑,并在此基礎上構造出一個服務業(yè)“成本病”影響福利水平的三部門理論模型,并通過模型的求解,得出能使福利水平達到最大化的最適宜的服務價格水平。在理論分析的基礎上,構造包含福利水平、服務業(yè)價格水平、工資水平及其他控制變量的計量模型,運用2000-2012年中國30個省市(除西藏)的面板數(shù)據(jù)對服務業(yè)“成本病”對福利水平的影響進行實證檢驗,實證結果表明,無論是全國還是分地區(qū)層面,我國服務業(yè)“成本病”都沒有降低福利水平,并對這種結果出現(xiàn)的可能原因進行了探討。最后,在理論分析和實證研究的基礎上,本文就如何因地制宜緩解我國服務業(yè)“成本病”隱患,促進服務業(yè)健康發(fā)展,并穩(wěn)步提升社會福利水平給出了相關政策建議。
[Abstract]:In 2008, the financial crisis, which began in the United States and spread to the world, triggered worldwide thinking about economic development, which was not just caused by cyclical factors in the process of economic development. The economic crisis can not be alleviated without the adjustment of the economic structure, which to a large extent is the adjustment of the industrial structure, which makes the service industry increasingly important. In 2014, The service industry in China has developed rapidly, the added value of the service industry has surpassed the secondary industry in the proportion of GDP, and has become the industry that contributes the most to economic growth. At the same time, the number of service industries absorbing employment is growing rapidly. Service industry is more and more important in the economic and social development of our country. However, the service industry shows that the growth of labor productivity lags behind that of the second industry. This makes the research on whether there is a "cost disease" in the service industry on the agenda. This paper takes the service industry of our country as the research object, combining the theoretical analysis with the empirical analysis. This paper studies on the hidden danger of "cost disease" and its welfare effect in China's service industry. On the basis of existing research, this paper firstly combs the relevant literature at home and abroad, generalizes the general characteristics of "cost sickness" in the service industry, and then constructs an econometric model including price, wage level and output. This paper uses input and output data to measure the labor productivity, demand price and income elasticity of the service industry, and then measures the existence of the "cost sickness" in the service industry. This paper uses panel data from 30 provinces and cities (excluding Tibet) in China from 1999 to 2012 to carry out regression analysis. The empirical results show that there are hidden dangers of "cost disease" in China, both nationally and regionally. In addition, this paper analyzes the general mechanism of "cost sickness" affecting welfare level in the service industry from two aspects: price effect and income effect. And from the standardised service industry and the non-standardized service industry, this paper discusses the transmission path of the service industry's "cost disease" affecting the welfare level. On this basis, a three-sector theoretical model of "cost sickness" affecting welfare level in the service industry is constructed, and solved by the model. On the basis of theoretical analysis, a measurement model including welfare level, service price level, wage level and other control variables is constructed. Using panel data from 30 provinces and cities in China (except Tibet) from 2000 to 2012 to test the impact of "cost sickness" on the welfare level of the service industry, the empirical results show that, whether at the national or regional level, The "cost sickness" of the service industry in China has not reduced the welfare level, and the possible causes of this result have been discussed. Finally, on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical research, This paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to alleviate the hidden trouble of "cost disease" in service industry, promote the healthy development of service industry, and raise the level of social welfare steadily.
【學位授予單位】：浙江大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F719

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