本文選題：制造業(yè)　切入點：出口結構　出處：《湖南大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：隨著經濟的全球化發(fā)展,出口貿易規(guī)模不斷擴大,其對于經濟發(fā)展也產生了重要的影響作用。而在出口快速增長的同時,出口貿易的不穩(wěn)定性和波動較為明顯,全球金融危機的爆發(fā)暴露了大部分國家出口容易受到外部沖擊。在出口不穩(wěn)定性的成因中,出口結構一直是最重要的影響因素,但對出口結構方面的定量研究主要集中在商品結構和市場結構,鮮有涉及技術結構對出口不穩(wěn)定性的影響。而制造業(yè)作為一國經濟發(fā)展的引擎,與經濟中其他部門存在緊密的聯(lián)系和溢出效應,是推動技術進步的主要動力,所以本文構建了制造業(yè)的“多維度”出口結構體系,考察出口結構對出口不穩(wěn)定性的影響,以提出有利于優(yōu)化出口結構和促進出口穩(wěn)定的針對性建議。本文在分析出口結構影響出口不穩(wěn)定性機制的基礎上,測算了1999-2012年OECD國家及其主要貿易伙伴國的制造業(yè)出口結構指標值和各國出口不穩(wěn)定性指數(shù),并分析了變化趨勢,可知制造業(yè)出口商品集中度和出口技術復雜度都呈現(xiàn)上升的趨勢,而出口市場集中度總體呈現(xiàn)下降的趨勢;出口不穩(wěn)定性指數(shù)受到金融危機的影響呈現(xiàn)“M”型波動。同時結合系統(tǒng)GMM方法,實證研究了出口結構對出口不穩(wěn)定性的影響。結果顯示:出口產品的技術復雜度越高,越有助于保持出口穩(wěn)定性;商品結構越集中化則越容易導致出口不穩(wěn)定;而集中化的市場結構在實證分析中表現(xiàn)出對出口穩(wěn)定微弱的促進作用,但由于當今世界經濟的開放性,各國卻呈現(xiàn)出市場多元化的趨勢�；趯嵶C結果,為平抑出口不穩(wěn)定性,促進各國經濟的持續(xù)穩(wěn)定發(fā)展,迫切需要提高出口產品的技術含量,實施出口多元化戰(zhàn)略,有效引進外資,以更自如地應對不確定性的國際貿易環(huán)境。
[Abstract]:With the development of economic globalization, the scale of export trade is expanding, which has an important effect on economic development. While export is growing rapidly, the instability and fluctuation of export trade are obvious. The outbreak of the global financial crisis has exposed the vulnerability of most countries' exports to external shocks. Among the causes of export instability, the export structure has been the most important factor. However, quantitative studies on export structure are mainly focused on the structure of commodities and markets, and rarely on the impact of technological structure on export instability. Manufacturing is the engine of a country's economic development. There are close relations with other sectors of the economy and spillover effect, which is the main driving force to promote technological progress. Therefore, this paper constructs the "multi-dimensional" export structure system of manufacturing industry, and examines the impact of export structure on export instability. On the basis of analyzing the mechanism of export structure influencing export instability, the paper puts forward some specific suggestions which are beneficial to the optimization of export structure and the promotion of export stability. The index value of manufacturing export structure and the export instability index of OECD countries and their main trading partners from 1999 to 2012 are calculated, and the changing trend is analyzed. It can be seen that the degree of concentration of manufacturing export commodities and the complexity of export technology are both increasing, while the degree of concentration of export market is on the whole decreasing; The impact of the financial crisis on the export instability index is of "M" type. At the same time, the impact of export structure on export instability is studied empirically with the system GMM method. The results show that the technical complexity of export products is higher. The more it helps to maintain export stability; the more centralized the commodity structure, the more likely it is to lead to export instability; and the more centralized the market structure, the weaker the contribution to export stability in empirical analysis, but due to the openness of today's world economy, On the basis of empirical results, in order to stabilize export instability and promote the sustained and stable development of national economies, there is an urgent need to increase the technical content of export products and implement export diversification strategies. Effective introduction of foreign investment to deal with the uncertainty of the international trading environment more freely.
【學位授予單位】：湖南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F752.62

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