本文關(guān)鍵詞： 計價貨幣 資產(chǎn)組合 出口貿(mào)易 匯率　出處：《中國科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：對外貿(mào)易是推動中國GDP快速增長的動力之一,但是,受人民幣匯率大幅波動、發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體復(fù)蘇緩慢、國際大宗商品價格下降等眾多因素的影響,中國的出口貿(mào)易增長乏力,出現(xiàn)了下滑的跡象。面對嚴峻的貿(mào)易形勢,中國在國際上大力推進"一帶一路"戰(zhàn)略,發(fā)展與新興經(jīng)濟體的貿(mào)易往來,在國內(nèi)致力于供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革,提升出口產(chǎn)品附加值,優(yōu)化出口產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu),希望以此提振外貿(mào)經(jīng)濟。但是,隨著匯率波動的日常化、出口對象的多元化、出口產(chǎn)品的多樣化,傳統(tǒng)的以單一貨幣計價的計價方式使得出口企業(yè)面臨的匯率風險大大增加。面對出口貿(mào)易的新形勢、新特點,本文提出以多種貨幣同時計價的計價方式,以期降低出口企業(yè)面臨的匯率風險。出口廠商在選擇計價貨幣時,會考慮宏觀、行業(yè)和微觀等諸多因素,他們面對的是典型的不確定條件下的收益問題。而資產(chǎn)組合理論主要解決的就是風險-收益問題,并且已經(jīng)在很多領(lǐng)域被廣泛應(yīng)用。本文在梳理計價貨幣的影響因素和相關(guān)文獻研究后,對資產(chǎn)組合理論的主要內(nèi)容及應(yīng)用進行了介紹。在此基礎(chǔ)上,本文應(yīng)用資產(chǎn)組合理論,介紹了如何實現(xiàn)以多種貨幣同時計價的方法。在完成理論方法的介紹之后,本文將這一方法應(yīng)用于假設(shè)的貿(mào)易情景,分析了計價貨幣數(shù)目對計價貨幣選擇的影響。在此基礎(chǔ)上進一步拓展分析,結(jié)合人民幣貶值的背景,比較了不同出口時期的計價貨幣選擇;結(jié)合中國與"一帶一路"國家貿(mào)易日益頻繁的背景,比較了不同出口對象的計價貨幣選擇;結(jié)合中國在國內(nèi)進行供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革、優(yōu)化升級出口產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)的背景,比較了不同出口商品的計價貨幣選擇。分析計價貨幣數(shù)目對計價貨幣選擇的影響發(fā)現(xiàn),采用三種以上貨幣同時計價優(yōu)于采用三種貨幣同時計價或采用單一貨幣計價,可見采用多種貨幣同時計價是一種行之有效的策略;比較不同出口時期的計價貨幣選擇發(fā)現(xiàn),人民幣出現(xiàn)明顯貶值,匯率穩(wěn)定性減弱,使得出口廠商的期望收益明顯降低,并且風險有所增大,同時人民幣不再納入計價貨幣組合;比較不同出口對象的計價貨幣選擇發(fā)現(xiàn),不同的出口對象主要影響預(yù)期收益水平及風險水平,對計價貨幣的幣種結(jié)構(gòu)影響較小;比較不同出口商品的情形時發(fā)現(xiàn),出口不同商品導(dǎo)致計價貨幣的差別較大,這種不同主要體現(xiàn)在三個方面:一是影響多元化貨幣計價方式的有效性,在一些情況下可能導(dǎo)致多元化貨幣計價方式失效;二是影響收益率水平及風險水平;三是影響計價貨幣的幣種構(gòu)成。因此,本文建議,出口企業(yè)可以嘗試采用多種貨幣同時計價的計價方式,在貿(mào)易協(xié)定中增加一攬子貨幣計價條款,豐富貨幣計價形式。不過,考慮到眾多因素會產(chǎn)生影響,出口廠商在選擇計價貨幣時,應(yīng)該具體問題具體分析。既要考慮外部因素,也要考慮出口企業(yè)自身風險承受能力,不能"一刀切"。政府也應(yīng)該做好信息服務(wù)工作,幫助出口廠商科學(xué)決策。此外,本文的研究對人民幣的國際化也有一些有益啟示。為了提升人民幣在國際上的地位,既要治標,又要在根本上下功夫:一方面,應(yīng)避免人民幣大幅波動或貶值,采取維穩(wěn)的匯率政策,盡量減少出口企業(yè)面臨的匯率風險;另一方面,要優(yōu)化產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu),擴大行業(yè)規(guī)模,提升中國的綜合競爭能力,從根本上支持和推動人民幣的國際化進程。
[Abstract]:Foreign trade is one of the driving power, Chinese GDP rapid growth but the RMB exchange rate volatility, slow recovery in developed economies, many factors affecting the international commodity prices decline, sluggish growth in China export trade, showing signs of decline. The face of the severe trade situation, and vigorously promote the "Chinese Belt and Road Initiative" in the international development strategy, and emerging economies trade, is committed to the supply side structural reform in China, promote the export of value-added products, optimize the structure of export products, hoping to boost foreign trade economy. However, with the exchange rate fluctuations in the daily, diversified exports, export diversification, traditional to the single currency valuation means the export enterprises are facing the risk of exchange rate is greatly increased. Facing the new situation, the new characteristics of export trade, proposed denominated currencies at the same time The face of valuation methods, in order to reduce the export enterprise's exchange rate risk. Export currency denominated in the selection, will consider the macro and micro, industry and other factors, they are faced with uncertain returns under typical. And mainly solves the problem of portfolio theory is the risk and return, and have been in many fields are widely used. In this paper, influence factors and currency in combing the relevant literature, the main content and the application of portfolio theory are introduced. On this basis, the application of portfolio theory, this article introduces how to realize the method of valuation in several currencies at the same time. After the completion of the theoretical method is introduced, in this paper this method is applied to the hypothesis of trade scenarios, analyzes the currency impact on the number of currency options. On the basis of further analysis, combined with the RMB devaluation The value of the background, compares the different export period of currency options; combined with the background of China and The Belt and Road national trade has become increasingly frequent, compares the different export object currency selection; combined with the China supply side structural reform in China, the optimization and upgrading of export product structure background, comparison of different export commodities the currency of choice. It is found that the number of analysis of currency denominated in the currency of choice, with more than three kinds of currency valuation is better than that of using three kinds of currency denominated or single currency, using a variety of monetary valuation also visible is a kind of effective strategy; comparison of different period of export currency choice, the RMB was devalued the stability of exchange rate weakened, making exporters expected revenue decreased significantly, and the risk increases, while the renminbi is no longer included in the valuation Currency composition; comparison of different export object currency choice, different export object mainly affects the level of expected return and risk level, less impact on the valuation of currency structure; that comparison of different export commodities export situation, different commodities lead to currency valuation differences, such differences are mainly embodied in three aspects: one is the effect of diversified monetary valuation methods, and in some cases may lead to failure of currency diversification; two is the yield level and risk level; three is a currency denominated currency impact. Therefore, this paper suggests that the export enterprises can try to use a variety of currency valuation and valuation, increase a basket of currencies pricing terms in trade agreements, rich in currency form. However, considering many factors will influence the export, manufacturers in the choice of pricing Money, we should analyze specific issues. It is necessary to consider the external factors, export enterprises should also consider their own risk tolerance, not "across the board". The government should also do a good job in information services, to help exporters of scientific decision-making. In addition, this paper studies the internationalization of the RMB also has some beneficial enlightenment. In order to improve the RMB in the international on the status, it is necessary to treat the symptoms, but also the effort in fundamental: on the one hand, should avoid sharp fluctuations in RMB or depreciation, take the maintenance of stability in the exchange rate policy, to reduce the export enterprises face the exchange rate risk; on the other hand, to optimize the product structure, expand the scale of industry, improve the competitive ability of China, support and to promote the internationalization of the RMB fundamentally.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.6;F752.62

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