本文關鍵詞： 廣西-東盟 貿(mào)易結(jié)構 實證分析 供給側(cè)結(jié)構性改革　出處：《南京大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：2008年爆發(fā)的全球性經(jīng)濟危機令國際貿(mào)易發(fā)展跌至冰點,同年全球貿(mào)易總額下降12%;全球國際貿(mào)易在2010年經(jīng)過短暫的復蘇之后又再度呈現(xiàn)下滑趨勢:2011-2015年分別增長5.5%、2.5%、3%、2.5%、2.8%。經(jīng)濟危機爆發(fā)以來,世界各國采取的各種經(jīng)濟政策大多都收效甚微或是見效緩慢,世界經(jīng)濟增長依然遲緩,2016年全球GDP同比增長率僅為2.63%。從國際政治角度看,近兩年全球性政治沖突事件頻發(fā),世界政治環(huán)境表現(xiàn)出愈發(fā)復雜和不穩(wěn)定的態(tài)勢。2016年6月23日,英國通過"脫歐"公投,宣布將從歐洲聯(lián)盟退出,這標志著歐洲一體化進程出現(xiàn)了巨大的倒退;同年11月,美國當選總統(tǒng)特朗普公開表示將在上任后退出"跨太平洋伙伴關系協(xié)定(TPP)",并將采取更多的貿(mào)易保護政策。從國內(nèi)看,中國過往所采取的國際分工模式已不可持續(xù)。隨著人口紅利消褪、資源日益枯竭,中國在國際貿(mào)易中所具有的優(yōu)勢逐步喪失,經(jīng)濟發(fā)展進入"新常態(tài)",社會面臨著陷入"中等收入陷阱"的危機。為應對世界性的需求疲軟以及世界政治環(huán)境的復雜化所帶來的挑戰(zhàn),中國國家主席習近平先后提出了 "一帶一路"戰(zhàn)略以及"供給側(cè)結(jié)構性改革"指導方針,為中國未來發(fā)展做出了規(guī)劃。廣西作為我國的經(jīng)濟后發(fā)省份,受益于中國-東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)(CAFTA)合作的深化,全區(qū)經(jīng)濟建設取得了豐碩成果。自CAFTA正式啟動至2015年年末,自治區(qū)與東盟各國的雙邊貿(mào)易額由65.3億美元增長到290.1億美元,占全區(qū)外貿(mào)總額的56%。在"一帶一路"戰(zhàn)略提出后,廣西作為連接"絲路經(jīng)濟帶"以及"海上絲路"的樞紐,是該戰(zhàn)略的前沿陣地;此外,來自我國東部發(fā)達地區(qū)的產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移,更是為自治區(qū)發(fā)展帶來了巨大的機遇。同時,"供給側(cè)結(jié)構性改革"方針也對中國的貿(mào)易發(fā)展指出了新的要求。那么,廣西-東盟雙邊貿(mào)易發(fā)展顯現(xiàn)出什么樣的趨勢?其貿(mào)易結(jié)構是否合理?是否符合"供給側(cè)機構性改革"方針的要求?針對這些現(xiàn)狀的探討,對保持廣西-東盟雙邊貿(mào)易的穩(wěn)步發(fā)展有著重要的實際意義。在上述背景下,本文將以廣西與東盟的雙邊貿(mào)易結(jié)構作為研究對象,首先通過理論與文獻綜述研究,對廣西-東盟雙邊貿(mào)易的基本現(xiàn)狀進行概述,并對其貿(mào)易結(jié)構進行統(tǒng)計分析,通過統(tǒng)計性指標的勾勒出廣西和東盟國家貿(mào)易結(jié)構的狀況;在此基礎上,進一步運用顯示性比較優(yōu)勢指數(shù)、產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易等指數(shù)分析方法進行實證分析,研究廣西與東盟雙邊貿(mào)易之中所存在的相似性和競爭性;同時,構建貿(mào)易引力模型進行計量分析,探究2006至2015年間廣西利用外資的狀況,進而揭示出廣西-東盟雙邊貿(mào)易結(jié)構現(xiàn)狀與雙方資源稟賦、產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易以及直接投資的動態(tài)聯(lián)系。最后,根據(jù)定量分析、定性分析和實證分析的結(jié)果,得出結(jié)論并結(jié)合"供給側(cè)結(jié)構性改革"的指導方針提出相應的調(diào)整建議。
[Abstract]:The global economic crisis that broke out in 2008 brought international trade to a freezing point. In the same year, total global trade fell by 12 points; after a brief recovery in 2010, global international trade again showed a downward trend. The number of global international trade rose by 5.5% 2011-2015, respectively, about 2.5% and 2.8% respectively. Since the onset of the economic crisis, Most of the economic policies adopted by various countries in the world have had little or no effect. The world economy is still growing slowly. In 2016, the global GDP growth rate was only 2.63%. From the international political point of view, the global political conflicts have occurred frequently in the past two years. The world political environment is increasingly complex and unstable. In June 23rd 2016, the UK voted to leave the European Union, announcing that it would withdraw from the European Union, marking a huge setback in the process of European integration; on November of the same year, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has publicly said he will withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPP) after taking office and will adopt more trade protection policies. The international division of labor adopted by China in the past has become unsustainable. As the demographic dividend faded and resources dried up, China's advantage in international trade was gradually lost. As economic development enters the "new normal", society is facing a crisis of falling into a "middle-income trap." in order to deal with the challenges brought about by the weak demand in the world and the complexity of the world political environment, Chinese President Xi Jinping has successively proposed the "Belt and Road" strategy and the "supply-side structural reform" guidelines to make plans for China's future development. Benefiting from the deepening cooperation between China and ASEAN Free Trade area (CAFTAA), the economic construction of the whole region has achieved fruitful results. From the official launch of CAFTA to the end of 2015, the bilateral trade volume between the autonomous region and ASEAN countries has increased from US $6.53 billion to US $29.01 billion. After the "Belt and Road" strategy was put forward, Guangxi, as the hub connecting the "Silk Road Economic Belt" and "Sea Silk Road", was the frontier position of the strategy; in addition, industrial transfer from developed areas in the eastern part of China, At the same time, the "supply-side structural reform" policy also points out new requirements for China's trade development. Is its trade structure reasonable? Is it in line with the requirements of the "supply-side institutional reform" policy? It is of great practical significance to maintain the steady development of the bilateral trade between Guangxi and ASEAN. Under the above background, this paper will take the bilateral trade structure between Guangxi and ASEAN as the object of study. First of all, through the theoretical and literature review, the basic status of Guangxi-ASEAN bilateral trade is summarized, and its trade structure is statistically analyzed, and the trade structure of Guangxi and ASEAN countries is outlined by statistical indicators. On this basis, we further use the index of comparative advantage, intra-industry trade and other index analysis methods for empirical analysis, to study the similarity and competitiveness in the bilateral trade between Guangxi and ASEAN, at the same time, Based on the quantitative analysis of trade gravity model, this paper explores the situation of Guangxi's utilization of foreign capital from 2006 to 2015, and then reveals the current situation of Guangxi-ASEAN bilateral trade structure and the resources endowment of both sides. Finally, according to the results of quantitative analysis, qualitative analysis and empirical analysis, the paper draws a conclusion and puts forward corresponding adjustment suggestions combined with the guideline of "supply-side structural reform".
【學位授予單位】：南京大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F752.7

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